caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 We just got a couple of drops from Arizona. First, we had a tiny (15-vote) drop from deep red Navajo county. It was tiny, it was mostly Trump. Then, surprisingly we had a nearly 7,000 drop from blue Pima county; what is surprising about the drop is that, instead of moving the needle in Biden’s direction, it slightly moved the needle towards Trump. Biden is still on track to win AZ when all is said and done. https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html# (Actually, looking at the timing and size of the drop, I’m surprised it was a Pima instead of a Maricopa drop) More info: My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 10, 2020 Author Share Posted November 10, 2020 Another analysis of AZ showing Trump is no where near getting the votes he needs (he needs 60/40, even from blue counties, but isn’t getting it): My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Share Posted November 11, 2020 Another drop from red Pinal country: Summary: While this reduces Biden’s lead, it does not do so by enough for Trump to be able to win. Right now, the numbers are that Trump is getting 57.7% of what’s left, but needs 65.1%. That 65.1% number keeps going up too as drops either favor Biden or not favor Trump enough. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Share Posted November 11, 2020 These are both deep red counties, and these are the final significant tranches we will see from them. I have calculated a Biden win taking in to account that these states would give us deep red tranches. Maricopa county will have another drop of votes today. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Share Posted November 11, 2020 Two more drops: Again, Trump is gaining votes, but nowhere enough to win. It will take a week, maybe longer for it to end, and the only thing in question now is whether Biden can keep a 10,000 vote lead. If the lead were under 3,400 or so, Trump would be able to request a recount. No sooner. It’s looking very very unlikely we’ll hit recount territory. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHolland 12,725 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 The fact that they're dropping 2-15 votes AT A TIME is literally going to make me lose my mind. It's so obvious Trump can't make up his deficit. Can the cowards PLEASE just call this race PLEASE someone start making memes about Arizona being slow af, that seemed to work for Nevada Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bionic 50,111 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 Arizona is going red after all John McCain I hate you Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 hour ago, bionic said: Arizona is going red after all John McCain I hate you That’s not what we’re seeing. We’re seeing Biden’s lead going down, but right now Trump would need a 66% lead in the estimated remaining votes to win, and we’re seeing him get 57% of what remains on average. It may be yet another “curse of 2020” nail biter, but there is little chance Trump will pull ahead. Especially since we have all those provisional ballots in blue Pima county still to be counted. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Share Posted November 11, 2020 Arizona’s latest drop of votes comes from blue Pima county. As expected, Biden got more votes than Trump, increasing Biden’s lead. There’s still a lot of provisional votes left in Pima county, which should help increase Biden’s lead. This may be offset by the ballots still to count in Maricopa county, which somewhat lean Trump (but we have also have had drops in Maricopa favoring Biden, so it can go either way); so far the two are balancing each other out. Edit: Trump is now averaging 58.1% and needs 68.3% to win. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 This gives Trump some more votes, but no where near enough. At this point, Trump needs 75% of the remaining votes to prevail. A good number of the remaining votes are in blue Pima county, which could very well increase the gap between Trump and Biden. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,213 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 46 minutes ago, caulixtla said: This gives Trump some more votes, but no where near enough. At this point, Trump needs 75% of the remaining votes to prevail. A good number of the remaining votes are in blue Pima county, which could very well increase the gap between Trump and Biden. You're single handedly carrying this thread Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 12, 2020 Author Share Posted November 12, 2020 I will carry it until Arizona is called by the networks and we have closure on this. Every analysis shows that Trump won’t get the votes to carry AZ from what’s left, but, then again, I was pretty sure Biden would carry Florida too. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SadBoi808 1,120 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JusKeepBreathin 19,311 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." -Martin Luther King Jr. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorlax 6,371 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 I hope Arizona is called for Biden on Saturday during the Trumpettes Stop the Steal rally Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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