Arizona results tracking thread

[caulixtla 2,170]

I have been posting these in the election thread, but I think it makes more sense to make a separate thread for them.

This is a thread where I will post updates on how the vote is going in AZ. The results in every other state at this point can be reliably predicted, but the results are still up in the air for AZ. It will probably turn blue, but there’s a small chance they will find enough Trump votes for Trump to prevail in this state.

AZ’s results do not determine the overall winner, so it’s a moot point, but with the accusations of a “rigged election” and Trump, unlike any other president in his position, refusing to concede, every single state we can get is that much closer to driving the point home that Trump lost this election among stubborn Republicans still in denial.

So, that in mind, here is how things stand with AZ: Biden is just under (edit: make that over) 20,000 votes ahead. The most recent drop gave Biden more votes, but that was from a deeply blue county.

When looking at https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html# the thing to keep in mind is that about half of those AZ votes remaining are provisional votes. A number of provisional votes will be rejected; of those accepted, there’s no reason to think they will tilt red compared to AZ’s overall results the way the mail in ballots have been tilting red, especially since a large portion of them are in Blue Pima county.

Here’s a list of what’s left to count in AZ: https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

I estimate Biden will be +10,000 when all is said and done. +5,000 worst case.

We’ll get another drop from AZ any time now, and it will be a big drop. (Edit, it was a small drop, but one that gave Biden more votes)

@Jill

[caulixtla 2,170]

Garrett Archer agrees with @Jill: AZ will stay blue.

In more detail, it has been drops in Maricopa county which have been whittling away at Biden’s lead. With the most recent drop from Maricopa actually increasing Biden’s lead, it looks like they have finally gone through all of the “final day” Trump votes, and are now going through the “last minute” Biden votes.

Just in case this thread doesn’t get updated, https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer is also closely following AZ.

 

[caulixtla 2,170]

Doing the math, I estimated Biden’s minimum possible lead was 5,000 votes or so when all is said and done in AZ. With Maricopa’s latest drop, I don’t see any viable path for Biden to lead with under 10,000 votes in Arizona.

[Lucas 31,101]

Fingers crossed! Biden winning there would be the cherry on top

[SharkmanthaC 115,041]

@Jill when opening GGD this evening:

[rasclautmangos 2,746]

By the looks of his twitter, he's still holding out hope too. I don't think anyone told him that he could win Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska and still lose.

[Jill 31,812]

I wish Trump had won

[caulixtla 2,170]

Just now, Jill said:

I wish Trump had won

Are you getting that tired of all of the “@Jill here’s some more tea on how AZ is going” posts?

 

[Jill 31,812]

1 minute ago, caulixtla said:

Are you getting that tired of all of the “@Jill here’s some more tea on how AZ is going” posts?

 

No but I wish people didn't question what will end up being true 

[caulixtla 2,170]

5 minutes ago, rasclautmangos said:

By the looks of his twitter, he's still holding out hope too. I don't think anyone told him that he could win Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska and still lose.

Alaska and NC will probably end up going to Trump.

For him to win at this point, he needs to get at least three states he is losing to make him prevail in the recount. There isn’t a blue state out there without at least 10,000 more votes for Biden than Trump.

Trump isn’t going to get 10,000 votes each in three different states. A recount might give him 1,000 more votes if he is really lucky (and keep in mind AZ doesn’t do recounts unless it’s a lot closer than what Biden will get when all is said and done).

[caulixtla 2,170]

Pimal, a very red county in AZ, gave us their essentially final drop:

I’ve been expecting Pinal county to give about 5,000 more votes to Trump (i.e. closing the margin where Biden leads by 5,000 votes), so this is no surprise. Biden is still ahead, those remaining Maricopa county votes aren’t leaning red any more, and Pinal has very few votes remaining to give to Trump. Biden’s lead will, when all is said and done, be 10,000-20,000 Biden, depending on how the rest of Maricopa county goes.

Blue Pima county still has 15,000 provisional ballots. If 33% get accepted, and they are 66% Biden (a reasonable guess), that’s 1,700 more votes Biden has compared to Trump.

 

[moonsago 7,285]

Wait so its not over yet? 

[caulixtla 2,170]

24 minutes ago, moonsago said:

Wait so its not over yet? 

It’s over at the national level. That’s why all of the networks have called it a win for Biden (EDIT).

What I’m tracking here is whether AZ (Arizona) stays blue or turns red. It will be a few days before we can definitely call it, but things aren’t looking too good for Trump in AZ.

The reason AZ is taking so long is because with WI/MI/GA/PA, all of the remaining votes to be counted were overwhelmingly for Biden, so once Biden had more votes than Trump, it was curtains for the orange cheeto. In AZ, on the other hand, the remaining votes are a mixture of red and blue votes, and we’re coming down from above (which takes longer to get a definitive answer than coming up from behind), so things are a little less clear, but things look to be strongly favoring Biden in AZ at this point.

Again, Biden does not need AZ to win!

[Franch Toast 27,737]

11 minutes ago, caulixtla said:

It’s over at the national level. That’s why all of the networks have called it a win for Trump.

 

I hope you mean Biden. 

[caulixtla 2,170]

6 minutes ago, Franch Toast said:

I hope you mean Biden. 

I fixed it. You can now stop dragging me.