Post Covid-19 Economy... Forbes Discusses Inflation or Deflation

[Economy 52,842]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/06/10/will-there-be-deflation-or-inflation-in-the-post-coronavirus-world/amp/

 

I keep wondering about this myself and worry about high inflation especially over the longer term especially with many businesses being destroyed (meaning lost productive capacity for a while but more money in the system to chase fewer services available)

 

But on the flip side if unemployment remains high and consumers choose to continue to spend less that is deflationary

 

I think for now it's definitely deflationary (excluding restaurants, grocery stores and services like hair dressers with Covid charges)... But later if economy starts improving we could see high inflation

[Webb7 438]

Royal Bank is predicting Canada will fall into a recession later this year as the economy is weighed down by the impact of COVID-19 and the plunge in oil prices. RBC is forecasting an annualized decline of 2.5 per cent in the second quarter and 0.8 per cent in the third quarter.

but on the other hand 

 

[TimisaMonster 31,073]

THE WW economy is gonna be **** for a while...unemployment is rampant and a vaccine is nowhere close to being found...

[Doot 2]

I just remember when a movie theater ticket cost $7. 

[Economy 52,842]

34 minutes ago, Webb7 said:

Royal Bank is predicting Canada will fall into a recession later this year as the economy is weighed down by the impact of COVID-19 and the plunge in oil prices. RBC is forecasting an annualized decline of 2.5 per cent in the second quarter and 0.8 per cent in the third quarter.

but on the other hand 

 

I mean... I would call what we just had a recession already and a severe one at that

 

And spare me the technical 2 consecutive quarter contraction many like to go by. There's so many reasons why that's a poor way of gauging whether an economy is in a state of downturn or not

 

i can see a lot of stuff getting worse year end for sure tho especially as benefits wear off

[Economy 52,842]

3 minutes ago, Doot said:

I just remember when a movie theater ticket cost $7. 

I remember when my beloved KFC Toonie Tuesday was ACTUALLY Toonie Tuesday

 

Or when all "Dollar" Stores were actually DOLLAR Stores

[Bt1 5,213]

The fact that people are starting to see the effects on the economy, even when most governments did everything they could to help people or businesses, it should be very worrying.

I'm scared for 2021 when it comes to the economy.

[Economy 52,842]

4 hours ago, Florin said:

The fact that people are starting to see the effects on the economy, even when most governments did everything they could to help people or businesses, it should be very worrying.

I'm scared for 2021 when it comes to the economy.

It's gonna be a mess that's for sure

[FfFfFfFF 58,069]

Related to this I saw a map of how each contry in Europe is predicted to be affected in terms of GDP.

Southern Europe will be the most affected, followed by Central and Northen Europe and in last come Eastern countries.

[Webb7 438]

1 minute ago, Economy said:

It's gonna be a mess that's for sure

Trump says over and over, predicting a burgeoning economy come the fall. "You're going to see some great numbers in the fourth quarter, and you're going to end up doing a great year next year." 
 

Trump : Trust me, economy will soar in 2021 

[Economy 52,842]

1 minute ago, Webb7 said:

Trump says over and over, predicting a burgeoning economy come the fall. "You're going to see some great numbers in the fourth quarter, and you're going to end up doing a great year next year." 
 

Trump : Trust me, economy will soar in 2021 

Yeah. Maybe 20% growth in fourth quarter. Sounds amazing until u take into account it shrank 35% before that

 

So still a sh*tty mess

 

Canada is gonna be terrible too

 

[Benji 20,113]

I’m not too worried.  The world has to move away from the man made economy at some point for the future of the planet; a system based on exploiting your resources at the citizen’s and earth’s peril is not sustainable.  If this is what kicks more of the world’s leaders into actions then so be it, let the economy crash and burn.

[Webb7 438]

14 minutes ago, Economy said:

Yeah. Maybe 20% growth in fourth quarter. Sounds amazing until u take into account it shrank 35% before that

 

So still a sh*tty mess

 

Canada is gonna be terrible too

 

It's projecting the addition of another 1.3 million jobs in the July to September quarter, dropping the national unemployment rate to 10.5 per cent from 13.7 per cent ending June30

 

The Conference Board says that if the country can avoid a second national shutdown, Canada's economy could grow by 6.7 per cent in 2021 and by 4.8 per cent in 2022.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 22, 2020

[Economy 52,842]

4 minutes ago, Webb7 said:

It's projecting the addition of another 1.3 million jobs in the July to September quarter, dropping the national unemployment rate to 10.5 per cent.

 

The Conference Board says that if the country can avoid a second national shutdown, Canada's economy could grow by 6.7 per cent in 2021 and by 4.8 per cent in 2022.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 22, 2020

A second wave can change that and unemployment will stay stubbornly high because many businesses have gone bankrupt and businesses that are gone can't re-hire. That's something that's always slow to recover from

 

Canadians also have one of the highest consumer debt burdens in the world. If any shutdown happened again and the Government doesn't do things like CERB again were screwed. Were gonna get mass defaults on payments like mortgages and credit cards

 

Those growth rates u posted are not stellar given where the economy is at now and how much it needs to recover

[Webb7 438]

That’s why we close our border to avoid a second wave. Employment rose by 952,900 in June as lockdown restrictions began to ease, Statistics Canada reported on Friday, adding to the 290,000 jobs created in May. The two-month total represents just over 40 per cent of the 3 million lost in March and April, when mandatory business closures were imposed.

and I agreed that it will take a long time for any country to recover but at least we are moving to right direction. While today’s numbers are encouraging, there are almost 1.8 million lost jobs yet to be recovered

As impressive as the the employment jump is, the Canadian economy is still digging itself out of a deep hole. While the unemployment rate fell to 12.3 per cent in June, that’s still near historically elevated levels. The 13.7 per cent jobless rate in May was the highest since the Great Depression.

Hours worked rose 9.8 per cent in June, but were still 16 per cent below February levels.

While we expect further ground to be recovered in the months ahead, the speed is likely to slow and it could turn out to be a bumpy ride along the way