US unemployment could hit 20% in worst case scenario

[Bt1 5,213]

2 hours ago, ImTired said:

What's an acceptable number of deaths for you? 

You dont realise how hypocritical your question is. You at least are uninformed. 

Let's not act like this crisis was created because people are affraid that people in general are risking to die. You, me, we, the people are affraid that they will be victims. 

If that wouldn't be the case with the money spend to keep the economy on life support we would have saved so much more lifes in third world countries by solving easier problems like hunger or vaccination for other diseases. 

[Taylucifer 5,249]

I forget that the US is clowning and not in full lockdown

[Eighteen 5,430]

there is a way to handle the coronavirus outbreak and there are many ways NOT to. if we had a more competent leader, one who used the first few months of the year, when infections were running rampant in china, to shore up US defenses, to make some kind of preparation, ANY preparation, for the coming onslaught, the US would be better off now. if we had a president who would now use the full-force of the defense production act to make COVID-19 tests and ventilators and PPE equipment, we would be better off.

people need to understand this: on top of social distancing, mandatory lockdowns must be imposed on a federal level--letting states decide what to do is a bad idea because it takes a while for everyone to end up on the same page. we see this in how things unfolded: one state goes into lockdown here, another, right next door, doesn't do so until two weeks later. when one state uses a strict lockdown policy, and then right next door, it's laissez faire policy, this strategy only slows things down dramatically for everybody: you'll have the state that started earlier begin recovering, and at the same time, the state next door will begin to see infections go up, threatening the recovery of the former state, and furthermore requiring the state that started earlier to remain on lockdown longer so as to not jeopardize any progress made. it makes NO sense.

on top of that, the US, in an ideal scenario, must mass produce hundreds of millions of tests because ideally everyone in the US should be tested, and multiple times to boot, due to the asymptomatic nature and long-gestation period of this virus. as we are right now, the numbers are beginning to reach a turning point in some places, but when the economy begins to reopen, the virus will simply make a resurgence because people will either be in the gestation period and going out, or people will be asymptomatic altogether and going out, and thus the spread begins again. in a matter of a few weeks or so, a lot of the work done in the month(s) of lockdown will be unraveled and undone.

in order for the economy to reopen, i think the US will have to be able to know with as much certainty as possible, who is sick and who isn't and be able to trace the line of infection.

once things do begin to reopen, gov't will have to have a good system in place to identify clusters, to keep people who are potentially infected at home and also pay them. say people go back to work, and somebody in an office is then diagnosed with COVID, that person must be able to stay at home and be paid, and every single person that person had contact with must be allowed to stay home until they are tested, and they must be paid. gov't must be able to track down where that person was infected as best as humanly possible (which means social distancing must continue to some degree, to make it easier to trace the line of infection). in sum, gov't must also be able to identify new infections quickly and isolate anybody that person might have made contact with quickly, and test them all, symptomatic or not; legislation must furthermore be passed to allow for these people to stay at home for two weeks (or until test results come in) and be paid (for even longer than 2 weeks if it does turn out they're sick). 

ultimately, the US must be able to employ a strong apparatus, where people are still going to work, but at the same time, infection rates are held down as best as possible.

in the end, i don't think things need to be boiled down to either letting the economy die and we fall into a depression, or letting people die by haphazardly reopening the economy to prevent such a downturn: i believe a balance can be struck. 

 

[Maleficent 6]

5 hours ago, ImTired said:

2.2% death rate. Conservatively let's just say 300 million Americans total. That's 6.6 million dead Americans?

that’s not at all how statistics work. 

first of all, only 14% of cases are severe. of those 14%, 2.2% will die. 

second of all, each person has roughly a 90% chance of catching. 

so of 300million ppl, 270 will get it. 37.8 will have complications. 831,600 will die WORST CASE SCENARIO. 

what silly math you do lol. 

[Whispering 18,865]

4 hours ago, Florin said:

That's such a bad question. There wouldn't be any controversy if it will be so easy. 

People who dont understand the effects of a bad economy should visit some third world countries. Not to mention that the effects of a bad economy are totally different than the effects of lockdowns. The problem is no one will count those victims and show the numbers 24 7 on tv screens all around the world.

The US is not a third world country. 

The Great Depression had little effects on death rates in the US. During the Great Depression, mortality rates fell.

Researchers examined mortality rates from U.S. cities between 1929 and 1937, along with data on bank suspensions, which were used as an indicator of the impact of the financial crisis in the individual states.

They found declines in deaths due to pneumonia, flu and tuberculosis and increases in deaths from heart disease, cancer and diabetes. But none of those causes of death were associated with bank suspensions, and only the increase in deaths from heart disease could plausibly relate to the economic depression, the scientists write.

Two causes of death did correlate with the pattern of bank suspensions: suicide rates rose but motor vehicle accidents declined, so much so that they outweighed the increase in suicides.

“Our study provides evidence that even major depressions do not imply mortality crises," says study lead author David Stuckler, of the London School of Hygiene & Medicine. "Whether health improves or worsens during hard times depends mainly on how governments choose to respond.”

[Whispering 18,865]

8 hours ago, Lord Temptation said:

The WHO has blood on it’s hands. The WHO said NOT to wear face masks. The WHO said DON’T stop flights from China. The WHO and China have blood on their hands.

Sadly, your blind hatred for Trump is so corrosive, it’s causing you to forget about how it was the WHO and China that brought the virus to America.

China lied, people died. Stop deflecting from that fact just to play politics, it’s really not the right time. I know how Trump is always on the tip of your tongue, but please try and think of others.

All quotes are from Trump:

Jan. 18 – Trump received a briefing from Heath and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, who said the President viewed him as “alarmist.” The briefing was by phone, as Trump was at Mar-a-Lago golfing for the weekend.

Jan. 22 – First reported case in US

“We have it totally under control. … It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan. 30 – 7 US cases. First person-to-person transmission confirmed by CDC, indicating COVID-19 had been freely spreading for several days, possibly weeks.

“We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”

Jan. 31 – 8 US cases. Travel ban issued for China. HHS Secretary Azar declares public health crisis. 11791 cases worldwide, 1968 of which outside of China.

Feb. 10 – 12 US cases

“Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though.”

Feb. 26 – 60 US cases, Pence appointed leader of COVID-19 task force

“And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

Feb. 27 – 60 US cases

“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”

Feb. 28 – 63 US cases

“Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus…they are politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you see…this is their new hoax.”

Feb. 29 – 68 US cases, first American death

“I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.”

Mar. 2 – 100 US cases, 6 deaths

“We had a great meeting today with a lot of the great companies and they’re going to have vaccines, I think relatively soon.”

Mar. 5 – 221 US cases, 12 deaths

Mar. 6 – 319 US cases, 15 deaths

“Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. They’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful.”

Mar. 7 – 435 US cases, 19 deaths

“No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.”
…
[Holding rallies] “doesn’t bother me at all and it doesn’t bother them at all.”

Mar. 9 – 704 US cases, 26 deaths

Mar. 10 – 994, 30 deaths

“We’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

Mar. 11 – 1301 US cases, 38 deaths.

Mar. 13 – 2183 US cases, 48 deaths. Trump declares national emergency

Mar. 17 – 6346 US cases, 110 deaths

“I’ve felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”

 

Trump has subsequently promoted unproven treatments, rated his handling of the crisis a 10/10, and bragged about his TV ratings.

 

 

[Morphine Prince 109,729]

9 hours ago, Lord Temptation said:

Sadly, your blind hatred for Trump is so corrosive, it’s causing you to forget about how it was the WHO and China that brought the virus to America.

Genome analysis has shown the virus primarily entered the US from Europe. 

[Bt1 5,213]

31 minutes ago, Whispering said:

The US is not a third world country. 

The Great Depression had little effects on death rates in the US. During the Great Depression, mortality rates fell.

Researchers examined mortality rates from U.S. cities between 1929 and 1937, along with data on bank suspensions, which were used as an indicator of the impact of the financial crisis in the individual states.

They found declines in deaths due to pneumonia, flu and tuberculosis and increases in deaths from heart disease, cancer and diabetes. But none of those causes of death were associated with bank suspensions, and only the increase in deaths from heart disease could plausibly relate to the economic depression, the scientists write.

Two causes of death did correlate with the pattern of bank suspensions: suicide rates rose but motor vehicle accidents declined, so much so that they outweighed the increase in suicides.

“Our study provides evidence that even major depressions do not imply mortality crises," says study lead author David Stuckler, of the London School of Hygiene & Medicine. "Whether health improves or worsens during hard times depends mainly on how governments choose to respond.”

I never said that US is a third world country? Are you saying that the life of an American / european is more important than the life of an African? 

And I never talked about death rates caused by bad economy. I've said "victims". As it is already reported, some people suffer more than others because of the lockdowns, the domestic abuse of women and children is on the rise, people already struggle with food supplies, suicides will probably go up and all because of the LOCKDOWNS.

The BAD ECONOMY is another discussion.

And the catch is that the victims wont be counted. No one will count a victim of today situation that dies 5 years from now because of something that happens today. 

There are already opinions that the number of deaths for this year wont be different. If a pandemic cant show up in these kind of statistics, how do you expect that the effects of a bad economy can show up?

[Chromaticunt 5,529]

Watch them vote Trump in again 

[TheBeast 1,580]

8 hours ago, Lord Temptation said:

The WHO said DON’T wear face masks.

Their advice literally caused hundreds of thousands of infections and thousands of deaths. 

Stop playing politics.

Sis...

WHO said don't wear face masks because at the time they were under the impression that wearing facemasks didnt help, and actually worsened the way it spread.

COVID-19 is a new and unprecedented virus (at least in this generation of science) and WHO, led by ACTUAL SCIENTISTS, were scrambling to do what they felt was saving people. Yes, they were wrong, but they figured it out because of research into how the virus is spread.

Now compare that situation with the quotes from Trump posted earlier and you literally can't compare the two.

This is apples and oranges sis. At least WHO is trying to save lives.

[ImTired 3,956]

6 hours ago, bionic said:

What's more important, human lives of the economy?

Exactly.  I'm still waiting for an acceptable number of deaths from @Florin. Because by my calculations, 6.6 million is practically a holocaust. And mass death for money's sake is apparently an acceptable things to say out loud nowadays. Who knew! 

[ImTired 3,956]

 

6 hours ago, Florin said:

You dont realise how hypocritical your question is. You at least are uninformed. 

Let's not act like this crisis was created because people are affraid that people in general are risking to die. You, me, we, the people are affraid that they will be victims. 

If that wouldn't be the case with the money spend to keep the economy on life support we would have saved so much more lifes in third world countries by solving easier problems like hunger or vaccination for other diseases. 

Wait wait wait. Waaaaaaaaaaaaait. Lol Are you saying that the US should have taken this on the chin so we could give that money away and save lives in 3rd world countries? On non-pandemic related issues? Make it make sense please. I'm seriously not being condescending here. Is English a second language? I'm truly not following and I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt...

[ImTired 3,956]

3 hours ago, Maleficent said:

that’s not at all how statistics work. 

first of all, only 14% of cases are severe. of those 14%, 2.2% will die. 

second of all, each person has roughly a 90% chance of catching. 

so of 300million ppl, 270 will get it. 37.8 will have complications. 831,600 will die WORST CASE SCENARIO. 

what silly math you do lol. 

Sis.  it was from your own post. You said nothing of a % of a % originally.  

"Business that employ mainly those under 60 should not be shut down, nor should colleges and schools. Those above the age of 60 should remove themselves from society, not expect the entire global population to shut down over a virus that has a 2.2% death rate across ALL age groups "

Nice try though. 

[Bt1 5,213]

4 minutes ago, ImTired said:

 

Wait wait wait. Waaaaaaaaaaaaait. Lol Are you saying that the US should have taken this on the chin so we could give that money away and save lives in 3rd world countries? On non-pandemic related issues? Make it make sense please. I'm seriously not being condescending here. Is English a second language? I'm truly not following and I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt...

 

11 minutes ago, ImTired said:

Exactly.  I'm still waiting for an acceptable number of deaths from @Florin. Because by my calculations, 6.6 million is practically a holocaust. And mass death for money's sake is apparently an acceptable things to say out loud nowadays. Who knew! 

So u are ok with 9 m people dying from hunger every year? What is the acceptable number of deaths from hunger for you? 

That's the kind of questions you are asking. Do you think that people who are questioning the measures are ok with people dying? Then think again about this situation. 

[Maleficent 6]

10 minutes ago, ImTired said:

Sis.  it was from your own post. You said nothing of a % of a % originally.  

"Business that employ mainly those under 60 should not be shut down, nor should colleges and schools. Those above the age of 60 should remove themselves from society, not expect the entire global population to shut down over a virus that has a 2.2% death rate across ALL age groups "

Nice try though. 

omg what don’t you get. a 2.2% death rate doesn’t imply that 2.2% of the population will die. did you fail hs math?