Portugal Debt Collapsing As Government Forecasts Budget Surplus

[Economy 52,844]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/portugal-targets-first-budget-surplus-in-decades-solid-growth/amp

 

Portugals Debt has fallen sharply from 130% of GDP after Eurozone crisis to 118.9% now as economic growth outpaced deficits. For 2019 the budget was almost balanced with a deficit of less than 0.1% of GDP barely worth mentioning

 

For 2020 Portugal expects the first budget Surplus in half a century and the debt to GDP ratio is expected to fall another 2 points to 116.2%

 

Economic growth for 2020 despite expected to slow to 1.9% is still one of the best growth rates in Europe right now

 

 

[Musicisfreedom 5,837]

Glad you are back with these threads. I always learn new things

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

20 minutes ago, Economy said:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/portugal-targets-first-budget-surplus-in-decades-solid-growth/amp

 

Portugals Debt has fallen sharply from 130% of GDP after Eurozone crisis to 118.9% now as economic growth outpaced deficits. For 2019 the budget was almost balanced with a deficit of less than 0.1% of GDP barely worth mentioning

 

For 2020 Portugal expects the first budget Surplus in half a century and the debt to GDP ratio is expected to fall another 2 points to 116.2%

 

Economic growth for 2020 despite expected to slow to 1.9% is still one of the best growth rates in Europe right now

 

 

what are they doing or not doing to achieve this miraculous event in a world economic recession?

[DeanWinchester 41,390]

I wonder if this is the start of Europe's escape out of recession and maybe it's time to invest in Europe again

[Economy 52,844]

43 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said:

what are they doing or not doing to achieve this miraculous event in a world economic recession?

 

30 minutes ago, DeanWinchester said:

I wonder if this is the start of Europe's escape out of recession and maybe it's time to invest in Europe again

Europe is still stagnating and the recovery has been rather painfully slow

 

Of all the Countries heavily affected by the Eurozone crisis only Portugal and Ireland stabilized and began recovering above expectations

 

Greece, Spain, Italy and a lot of smaller Countries in central Europe have struggled to improve their finances or get solid economic growth

 

In Portugals case tourism and exports performed above expectations and getting finances under control also gave investors further confidence which in turn brought interest rates on government debt down a lot and further stabilized Portugal and confidence in its economy

 

Portugals austerity was also more balanced. It wasn't as harsh as Greece for example to keep deteriorating economy in a downward spiral for several years after crisis but the cuts were still enough to get finances under control

 

Also, Portugal made tough reforms on stuff like retirement age to help offset ageing population. Italy for example has a very aged population as well and has done little to try to deal with that reality

 

Ireland I didn't follow as closely so I'm not sure why they also recovered faster.

[Economy 52,844]

1 hour ago, Musicisfreedom said:

Glad you are back with these threads. I always learn new things

Thanks

 

[DeanWinchester 41,390]

7 minutes ago, Economy said:

Of all the Countries heavily affected by the Eurozone crisis only Portugal and Ireland stabilized and began recovering above expectations

 

Greece, Spain, Italy and a lot of smaller Countries in central Europe have struggled to improve their finances or get solid economic growth

 Yes but if other countries follow, won't the Eurozone become stronger as a whole? And if the pace picks up and you buy investments now while they're low, you make more once they enjoy stronger boosts in the future. Of course it's a risky gamble at this point

[Economy 52,844]

12 minutes ago, DeanWinchester said:

 Yes but if other countries follow, won't the Eurozone become stronger as a whole? And if the pace picks up and you buy investments now while they're low, you make more once they enjoy stronger boosts in the future. Of course it's a risky gamble at this point

Possibly. These other Countries have recovered slower but they still improved

 

But if u look at the EU as a whole it has been performing very poorly. Germany (the largest Eurozone economy) has had almost no growth at all lately and France has had its struggles too and Italy continues to chug along

 

The 3 largest EU economies alone that combined are like half of EU GDP are performing poorly. Italy in particular is a concern because it's recovery was slow and it's finances are still in awful shape and not showing sings of substantial improvement. They are still struggling to keep their deficits below 3% of GDP as EU rules require and that's a serious problem especially given their debt burden is already very high to begin with

 

The struggles in Europe are the main reason The European Central Bank has now lowered rates to negative and started QE money printing. They are pretty desperate to try to lift growth

 

Countries like Ireland and Portugal may be performing better but they are too small to really affect the EU as a whole significantly

 

As far as EU equities tho from an investment perspective I'm not sure tbh. The last 2 years I been too broke to invest so I haven't followed world stocks as closely for opportunities as I did in my single days 

 

But markets don't always follow the mainstream economy exactly so even if EU was on the verge of major recovery, that's not a guarantee stocks would see big rise if for example speculation already priced in future earnings growth or if rising rates from improved economy more than offset improved performance

 

A lot of factors besides general economy affect asset prices

[DeanWinchester 41,390]

9 minutes ago, Economy said:

As far as EU equities tho from an investment perspective I'm not sure tbh. The last 2 years I been too broke to invest so I haven't followed world stocks as closely for opportunities as I did in my single days 

 

But markets don't always follow the mainstream economy exactly so even if EU was on the verge of major recovery, that's not a guarantee stocks would see big rise if for example speculation already priced in future earnings growth or if rising rates from improved economy more than offset improved performance

I've been checking many Mutual Funds on Europe and they've been negative since 2013

[Economy 52,844]

1 minute ago, DeanWinchester said:

I've been checking many Mutual Funds on Europe and they've been negative since 2013

That's terrible 

 

It could mean there's value. Just do ur research before investing tlso u don't get burned that's all I say. Just because something has dropped a lot already doesn't mean it can't keep dropping so whatch out

 

In the past I used to follow markets more closely cuz I used to invest and I'd be able to give u advice. But since getting married and paying bills I no longer have money for that...

 

I follow the general economy now more but the markets only superficially by what I need to follow them as far as their impact on general economy (since they do affect general economy a bit after all) but even the bit I do follow, its more so in North America tbh

 

I find the real economy.more interesting because I can dig into real structural and macro issues and whatch them develop... The markets are a lot more irrational, volatile, prone to speculation and many factors u can't really predict. Half of it is a guessing game tbh and only have of it is based on real information and strategy (especially volatile sectors like resources, comodities and energy)

 

I'd be careful with Europe they are still a mess. I'm not saying they aren't a good opportunity tho, perhaps they are, I haven't followed their valuations and stuff all I'm saying is be careful.

 

Calling bottoms (and tops) are very tough. Those negative funds could still fall further, the overvalued US market could still rise further... I suggest if u do invest, do so for the long term with investments that have solid fundamental basis for growth to smooth out short term volatility or irrational movements in markets

 

This ultra low interest rate environment that makes bonds and savings accounts useless and forcing conservative inexperienced investors into stocks is causing some weird behavior in stocks to say the least

 

Some years ago bad economic news lifted US stocks and good news made them fall because bad news meant lower rates for longer which had been positive for stocks. That's actually so backwards and in normal times makes no sense what's so ever

[DeanWinchester 41,390]

1 minute ago, Economy said:

Just do ur research before investing tlso u don't get burned that's all I say. Just because something has dropped a lot already doesn't mean it can't keep dropping so whatch out

sis I have been doing that this decade. Japan was good for a while but the fund managers aren't earning enough so they closed many Japan-related funds (I suspect it also has to do with China overtaking Japan). Europe has been a mess almost the entire decade. Emerging markets are too volatile. Canada was in a slump up until 2015 and started to pick up. The safest bets have been North America for the past several years and I think it will stay the same for another decade at least. Most of my investments are in North American funds.

[Economy 52,844]

18 minutes ago, DeanWinchester said:

sis I have been doing that this decade. Japan was good for a while but the fund managers aren't earning enough so they closed many Japan-related funds (I suspect it also has to do with China overtaking Japan). Europe has been a mess almost the entire decade. Emerging markets are too volatile. Canada was in a slump up until 2015 and started to pick up. The safest bets have been North America for the past several years and I think it will stay the same for another decade at least. Most of my investments are in North American funds.

Ah ok so ur no noob

 

If ur looking at North America I'd seriously suggest researching some of the Canadian Energy Companies

 

They took a huge beating because of pipeline delay issues causing big oil discounts and the hype from US shale also taking all the investor money

 

But now at least 2 of the pipelines should be up an running in the next 1-2 years (Enbridge line 3 by end of 2020 and Transmountain by 2021 or 2022) which combined will add over 1 million barrels of extra capacity which should help discounts considerably... Keystone XL is less certain but even if it doesn't get build the other 2 will help a lot

 

Also US shale is proving less profitable than many investors hoped and some have started speaking more favourably of Canadian energy companies as a good long term investment and they have way less debt than US Shale companies in general

 

Some have dirt cheap trading multiples right now

 

Some like Suncor Energy are also expanding into green renewable energy while both Cenovus and Suncor have huge goals for CO2 reduction targets to help reduce carbon tax costs

 

Anyway just a suggestion and I'm not saying every energy company is necessarily good

[michael angelo 1,087]

my country 

[DeanWinchester 41,390]

8 minutes ago, Economy said:

Ah ok so ur no noob

I am a noob, I have just been extremely careful in following trends

[Economy 52,844]

1 minute ago, DeanWinchester said:

I am a noob, I have just been extremely careful in following trends

Haha well enjoy 

 

Also a correction in case u search it up, I meant to say embrige line 3 not line 2 it was a typo. If u search up line 2 u won't get any relevant information

 

Anyway my biggest advice as a former investor besides doing research is also to have patience!

 

Easier said than done. When u buy a stock (or fund) that has good reason to go up it can be frustrating to see it stubbornly not go up or sometimes for no good apparent reason even drop and then ur in the red for what feels like forever

 

That's one reason I like established companies with dividends whenever I could find one that also had good long term prospects

 

If an investment that should be going up seems to be taking forever to do so after you buy it, if it pays a dividend at least u get interest from it while you hold it and wait. It makes long multi-year holds sometimes worth while

 

When I held Suncor I had to wait like 3 years for the stock to rebound (after the 2014 energy crash) but I made almost 4% annually (12% over 3 years) from the dividends alone even while the stock was flat!