Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 The price rally is purely investor/rumor/news driven....The supply and demand factor will force the price to drop back. like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 3 hours ago, Woolfsmck said: The price rally is purely investor/rumor/news driven....The supply and demand factor will force the price to drop back. I think there will be another drop but perhaps not a major one. Maybe back down to $35/barrel investor know oil cant go much lower so there isnt much to loose. And already production outside OPEC is falling so there is anticipation of a supply-demand equilibrium by early 2017 this may keep investors buying new inventories and preventing oil from testing new lows but id expect to see prices fall below $40/barrel for a while Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-respond-saudi-threat-180557728.html Intersting perspective on current Saudi / US relationship .... It might be a rough road for the short term in the U.S. but the Saudi's will take a much bigger hit if their #1 customer and weapon supplier decide to pull out. like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 On April 22, 2016 at 8:18 PM, Woolfsmck said: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-respond-saudi-threat-180557728.html Intersting perspective on current Saudi / US relationship .... It might be a rough road for the short term in the U.S. but the Saudi's will take a much bigger hit if their #1 customer and weapon supplier decide to pull out. Yeah, Saudi cant take on the US on a side note, Oil is rallying!!! its causing my currency to rise again and killing the manufacturing rebirth in my region Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 6 hours ago, Economy said: Yeah, Saudi cant take on the US on a side note, Oil is rallying!!! its causing my currency to rise again and killing the manufacturing rebirth in my region Yeah, but I don't see this going very far. Plus, production from other sources will click back on if the price gets too much higher, dampening the spike. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speculators-driving-oil-prices-higher-164600074.html like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 39 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said: Yeah, but I don't see this going very far. Plus, production from other sources will click back on if the price gets too much higher, dampening the spike. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speculators-driving-oil-prices-higher-164600074.html I dont know that production would spike... Shale maybe a little. Although with tighter credit and still modest prices i cant see production exploding even in shale unless prices went to like $80/barrel or more which isnt happening As for sources like Deep Sea Drilling and Oil Sands they run on long cycles. So even if prices spiked now and they started new projects, oil wouldnt come online from those investments for several years supply and demand if coming to an equilibrium. The problem is storage is very full. That alone can limit price gains Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Just now, Economy said: I dont know that production would spike... Shale maybe a little. Although with tighter credit and still modest prices i cant see production exploding even in shale unless prices went to like $80/barrel or more which isnt happening As for sources like Deep Sea Drilling and Oil Sands they run on long cycles. So even if prices spiked now and they started new projects, oil wouldnt come online from those investments for several years supply and demand if coming to an equilibrium. The problem is storage is very full. That alone can limit price gains I'm talking about 'price' spike ... If you look at the chart on the link I added , production has been steadily increasing casuing the storage maximization and price drop. Crude harvesting and production can continue to increase beyond demand as well further making future price elevation unlikely...... Investor/rumor/political factors will cause the fluctuations more than anything in the near future. like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 12 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said: I'm talking about 'price' spike ... If you look at the chart on the link I added , production has been steadily increasing casuing the storage maximization and price drop. Crude harvesting and production can continue to increase beyond demand as well further making future price elevation unlikely...... Investor/rumor/political factors will cause the fluctuations more than anything in the near future. Oh sorry. But you said production from other sources would come online OPEC already fighting for market share used up most of their spare capacity. And as I said, Oil Sands and Deep Sea drilling have long lead times Shale would bounce back again but only modestly unless prices got high so i think in short term prices could fall again cuz were still in over supply but soon supply and demand will balance dont forget, even as low prices cause production to fall, demand will still rise 1.2 million barrels a day this year Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 7 minutes ago, Economy said: Oh sorry. But you said production from other sources would come online OPEC already fighting for market share used up most of their spare capacity. And as I said, Oil Sands and Deep Sea drilling have long lead times Shale would bounce back again but only modestly unless prices got high so i think in short term prices could fall again cuz were still in over supply but soon supply and demand will balance dont forget, even as low prices cause production to fall, demand will still rise 1.2 million barrels a day this year Since I live near the shale production region in the U.S. I can see first hand the impact the oil prices are having on that part of the economy. What they are doing now is cutting back or canceling 'new' drilling sites and capping off currently and recently drilled wells. The 'capped' wells can be brought into production very quickly and cheaply as most of the equipment to do so is readily available. The 'drilling' phase is more time consuming and costly and is definitely impacted by the price of oil. Add the Iran situation into the global equation and you have a bleak outlook for crude futures imo. like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Woolfsmck said: Since I live near the shale production region in the U.S. I can see first hand the impact the oil prices are having on that part of the economy. What they are doing now is cutting back or canceling 'new' drilling sites and capping off currently and recently drilled wells. The 'capped' wells can be brought into production very quickly and cheaply as most of the equipment to do so is readily available. The 'drilling' phase is more time consuming and costly and is definitely impacted by the price of oil. Add the Iran situation into the global equation and you have a bleak outlook for crude futures imo. Iran will rise slowly. They dont have enough infrastructure to pump their goals or enough tankers to ship it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 46 minutes ago, Economy said: Iran will rise slowly. They dont have enough infrastructure to pump their goals or enough tankers to ship it I think that Iran's plan is to slowly increase oil production as investment and their economic infrastruce recovers from the sanctions. Chinese companies have no problem investing in their oil reserves and I read that French and a couple of other EU companies are interested as well. If full scale war erupts with the Saudi's however, all bets are off. like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-ceo-oil-industry-facing-100000365.html Here's another link sayn' kinda the same thing I just did. They think that crude will stablize in the 50 to 60 dllr range like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted April 23, 2016 Author Share Posted April 23, 2016 4 hours ago, Woolfsmck said: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-ceo-oil-industry-facing-100000365.html Here's another link sayn' kinda the same thing I just did. They think that crude will stablize in the 50 to 60 dllr range Yeah. I agree with $50 to $60 for next 2-3 years. Thats what most analysts been saying too... then by 2020 possibly will peak at $70 to $80 depending how much demand grows by Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luc 4,776 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Labour participation rate rose 0.9% to 70.1% in the EU. Nice progress! South Europe is lagging behind (some below 60%, a lot of progress can be made there) but some countries fare very well (Sweden: >80%). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,844 Posted April 26, 2016 Author Share Posted April 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Luc said: Labour participation rate rose 0.9% to 70.1% in the EU. Nice progress! South Europe is lagging behind (some below 60%, a lot of progress can be made there) but some countries fare very well (Sweden: >80%). Source? And thats great. Here in North America it isnt as great. Last time i checked the US was 62.5% and Canada 65% Europe needs to work on productivity tho. Only a handful of Nations in EU have good productivity per worker (Like Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands etc) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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