Daily Economy Thread

[Economy 42,287]

Welcome to GGDs Daily Economy thread where we discuss main points going around the world

Feel free to post your own news as well in the comments for all to see!

 

CURRENT POINTS OF FOCUS:

 

- Global Trade Protectionism

- US-China trade war

- Possible 2020 Recession

 

Last OP Update: June 13, 2019

 

[Luc 4,772]

Why is Germany's economy slowing down so much..?

[Economy 42,287]

weak consumer demand as well as weaker exports to rest of eurozone

[Shadow 5,718]

Very cool. I'll be interested to how the market goes after this thing with OPEC. Will the North American oil and shale industry continue to be strong or can OPEC cripple its progress like it tried to do recently?

Pinning...

[Economy 42,287]

yeah average price of producing shale oil is like $65/barrel to $70/barrel. Of course thats an average. Varies from company to company and from field to field

Thats what prices are like so the average American company is just at break-even prices right now

Canadas oil sands are even more expensive than US shale but the drop in the Canadian Dollar is cushining some of the price drop so i dont know whos worse off right now Canada or the US

Some OPEC Nations are suffering tho and wanted higher prices. Especially Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela that are bad financially. Not every OPEC Country had massive wealth reserves like Saudi Arabia... But the Saudis carry the most influence and power in OPEC being the biggest producers

[Luc 4,772]

Greek parliament approves budget plan 2015

http://www.nu.nl/economie/3947508/grieks-parlement-keurt-begroting-goed.html

summary:

2.9% economic growth

24.8% -> 22.6% jobless

177.6% -> 171.6% debt

amazing numbers hopefully they'll realize them

[Economy 42,287]

the greeks have tended to be over optimistic. But hopefully it happens

Also besides Greece Portugal is also really stabalizing.

When u consider that Ireland that was highly troubled also bounced back yet Germany is stagnating now and France is deteriorating... How is it that the small and most troubled Countries are now the most improving?

[Americano 31,061]

The US slaying with jobs numbers and GDP growth lately

[Computer 10,939]

Too bad all international funds are so weighted in Japan :wtfga:

[Computer 10,939]

I have heard people commenting about gas being cheap though, it is nice.

[Economy 42,287]

The US slaying with jobs numbers and GDP growth lately

i know!!!! the real test will be when rates go back up. can the economy handle it?

 

with the main interest rate from the Fed at 0% interest, there is a lot fo support for the economy... if rates were at a normal 3% right now the economy would implode

 

once wages start rising and business investment goes up, the economy should handle higher rates no problem

 

its important to remember that most companies that werent destroyed in the recession now have eccess capacity... as in machines and stuff they already had are capable of supplying current demand and they dont need to invest

 

only once demand and economic output surpasses the current eccess capacity and companies are gonna have to invest, a lot fo slack in the economy in theory should anticipate

 

excess capacity is a concept i often didnt pay much attention to in the past but its a significant factor in secular stagnation (stagnation that tends to follow really severe downturns that instead of getting a "V shaped cycle" get a "u shaped" cycle)

[Economy 42,287]

I have heard people commenting about gas being cheap though, it is nice.

hope it doesnt kill north american oil boom

Too bad all international funds are so weighted in Japan

even after 25 years of pathetic economic performance ppl have faith Japan will get back up...

But i can give you 1 million reasons why Japan will never recover :coffee:

[Sebastien 16]

Love this thread  

[Economy 42,287]

Love this thread

good :) Come here often ;)

[Americano 31,061]

i know!!!! the real test will be when rates go back up. can the economy handle it?

 

with the main interest rate from the Fed at 0% interest, there is a lot fo support for the economy... if rates were at a normal 3% right now the economy would implode

 

once wages start rising and business investment goes up, the economy should handle higher rates no problem

 

its important to remember that most companies that werent destroyed in the recession now have eccess capacity... as in machines and stuff they already had are capable of supplying current demand and they dont need to invest

 

only once demand and economic output surpasses the current eccess capacity and companies are gonna have to invest, a lot fo slack in the economy in theory should anticipate

 

excess capacity is a concept i often didnt pay much attention to in the past but its a significant factor in secular stagnation (stagnation that tends to follow really severe downturns that instead of getting a "V shaped cycle" get a "u shaped" cycle)

 

I think with Republicans taking control of Congress, there will also be efforts with Obama to pass more trade deals and corporate tax reform. Things that will be a boon for corporate growth and GDP growth in the coming years.

 

Elections have consequences, and a divided government can be really good for the economy when compromises are struck. Republicans are too tax cut crazy and irresponsible, Dems too spending crazed and regulation-happy. Balance is good.