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US Charts Discussion (Part 3)


Americano
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Dangerous Man

Adele is out of the Top 10 :legend:

Thank the Lord. He has mercy

:dead:

whoa Wide Awake comin' for the weave.

:rip:

"A little less conversation and a little more touch my body."
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BB Hot 100 calculations for next week based on 4 days of itunes bars, current airplay and a streaming estimate

#position, sales (000's) + airplay (A.I. millions) + streaming (20Ks) = points*, artist, song, (change on Hot 100)

#1 294 + 160 + 55 = 365 Carly Rae Jepsen CMM (=)

#2 196 + 196 + 50 = 328 Gotye STIUTK ft Kimbra (=)

#3 235 + 154 + 45 = 314 Maroon 5 Payphone ft. Khalifa (=)

#4 132 + 118 + 33 = 209 One Direction WMYB (+1)

#5 209 + 70 + 15 = 201 Katy Perry WA (+4)

#6 82 + 133 + 39 = 196 Fun. WAY ft. Monae (-2)

#7 108 + 115 + 34 = 193 Nicki Minaj Starships (-1)

#8 94 + 111 + 32 = 179 Flo Rida WO ft Sia (-1)

#9 124 + 100 + 20 = 177 Rihanna WHYB (-1)

#10 116 + 82 + 36 = 173 Justin Bieber Boyfriend (=)

#11 67 + 111 + 31 = 161 The Wanted GYC (=)

#12 98 + 82 + 19 = 145 Usher Scream (+2)

#13 133 + 58 + 15 = 144 Pitbull BIT (-1)

#14 102 + 61 + 29 = 141 Ellie Goulding Lights (-1)

#15 109 + 61 + 15 = 132 Luke Bryan DOY (+1)

#16 70 + 75 + 23 = 126 Train DB (-1)

#17 98 + 53 + 16 = 119 David Guetta + Sia Titanium (+1)

#18 86 + 61 + 15 = 117 Karmin Brokenhearted (-1)

#19 76 + 63 + 13 = 111 Eric Church Springsteen (+1)

#20 77 + 43 + 26 = 108 Kanye West Mercy (+1)

#21 46 + 85 + 16 = 108 Kelly Clarkson Stronger (-2)

#22 170 + 0 + -- = 100 Justin Bieber ALAYLM (New)

*points = 62% x sales/K + 80% x airplay (A.I. millions) + 5% x on demand streaming/K

Wide Awake moving into the top 5 but the top 3 remain over a hundred points ahead of the field.

WHYB should retain #8 once Wild Ones falls below it

Approx weekly sales for Gaga: TEOG 7.1K, PF 6.8K, BTW 6.2K, JD 6.0K, Y+I 5.3K, BR 5.2K, Pap 4.1K

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#5 209 + 70 + 15 = 201 Katy Perry WA (+4)

Katy may be queen of radio, but not of streaming.

It's like her songs lend themselves more to passive than active listening.

Edited by craig
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CANNOGABANG

Katy may be queen of radio, but not of streaming.

It's like her songs lend themselves more to passive than active listening.

Most of the time, it's fun to indulge in just the tunes instead of the lyrics :flutter:

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MANiCURE1295

Katy may be queen of radio, but not of streaming.

It's like her songs lend themselves more to passive than active listening.

It's weird. I never really imagine myself just choosing to listen to a Katy song. Like this morning for example. I put my iPhone on shuffle and firework came on and I listened to it. But it's not something that I would say to my self " her lets listen to some Katy perry" ya know what I mean?

Edited by AlienHookerSlut
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GagaRunTheWorld

Approx weekly sales for Gaga: TEOG 7.1K, PF 6.8K, BTW 6.2K, JD 6.0K, Y+I 5.3K, BR 5.2K, Pap 4.1K

thank you :) could you post Japan and UK weekly Gaga sales? please i beg you no one here posts :emo: only you! :worship:

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jhonyguy04

how can just dance be selling more than bad romance. that song is so overrated.

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I actually hear Just Dance on the radio every once in a while, whereas, I haven't heard BR in about 1 year on the radio. Perhaps that's why JD is selling more.

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Her streaming numbers (KP) will go up with the video.

Oh ****! I forgot! It's going to be #5 on BB and there's still no video! :cry:

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I actually hear Just Dance on the radio every once in a while, whereas, I haven't heard BR in about 1 year on the radio. Perhaps that's why JD is selling more.

Shows Bad Romance was already starting in the Judas-MTN direction of being slightly less radio friendly than The Fame smashes. A bit longer, louder, more unusual than JD and PF - but Gagamania and great promo got it played in 2009-10. But not enough to beat Tik Tok.

Approx weekly sales for Gaga: TEOG 7.1K, PF 6.8K, BTW 6.2K, JD 6.0K, Y+I 5.3K, BR 5.2K, Pap 4.1K

3 for BTW

3 for The Fame

1 for TFM

Edited by craig
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Americano

TOP 20

1. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 196.101 (- 0.127)

2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 159.928 (+ 2.757)

3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 153.787 (+ 1.571)

4. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 132.743 (- 2.550)

5. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 118.280 (- 0.640)

6. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 114.966 (- 0.831)

7. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 111.106 (- 0.538)

8. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 110.768 (- 0.830)

9. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 99.841 (+ 1.406)

10. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 85.147 (- 0.362)

11. USHER - Scream: 81.968 (+ 0.163) â–²

12. JUSTIN BIEBER - Boyfriend: 81.814 (- 0.871) â–¼

13. TRAIN - Drive By: 75.099 (- 1.424)

14. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 69.535 (+ 1.602)

15. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 65.932 (- 1.206)

16. ADELE - Rumour Has It: 65.634 (- 0.902)

17. ERIC CHURCH - Springsteen: 62.812 (- 0.043)

18. KARMIN - Broken Hearted: 61.302 (+ 0.505) â–²

19. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 61.168 (+ 2.021) â–²

20. LUKE BRYAN - Drunk On You: 60.828 (+ 0.580)

OUTRAS

KIRKO BANGZ - Drank In My Cup: 60.662 (- 0.212)

PITBULL - Back In Time: 57.568 (+ 0.150)

CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Good Girl: 55.844 (- 1.271)

CA$H OUT - Cashin' Out: 52.638 (- 0.268)

DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 52.587 (+ 1.030)

DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 43.393 (+ 0.701)

CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 42.477 (+ 0.708)

GYM CLASS HEROES - The Fighter f/Ryan Tedder: 38.272 (+ 0.313)

JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 31.933 (+ 0.289)

USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 27.115 (+ 1.133)

RITA ORA - How We Do (Party): 23.368 (+ 0.328)

ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 20.859 (+ 0.548)

LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 20.011 (+ 0.184)

B.O.B - Both Of Us f/Taylor Swift: 15.462 (+ 0.061)

THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 13.625 (+ 0.343)

FUN. - Some Nights: 9.446 (+ 0.308)

KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 8.340 (+ 0.394)

MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 4.542 (+ 1.349)

CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 10.271

CIARA - Sweat f/2 Chainz: 1.191

MICHEL TELO & PITBULL - Ai Se Eu Te Pego/If I Catch...: 1.185 (+ 0.140)

Justin Bieber, Adele, Nicki Minaj, all on their way down.

Katy Perry, Carly, Ellie Goulding on their way up.

Edited by Americano
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thank you :) could you post Japan and UK weekly Gaga sales? please i beg you no one here posts :emo: only you! :worship:

I can try to work them out for the UK but will have to do some new maths. I can't for Japan because the itunes numbers are apparently only a fraction of the real sales.

For the US, for tracks below the itunes top 100, I use the itunes positions taken from http://livepopbars.com/lpb1024.php and use the fudge to fit formula PB = X * (100/N) * ((N-100)/900 +1) where PB is the estimated size of the pop bar; N is the postion of the song of interest, X is the pop bar value of the song of position #100 from www.kworb.net/pop. . So TEOG is at #367 = N, and X is currently 0.0679, so the formula gives a pop bar for TEOG of 0.024. Since the #1 song is selling about 300K/week, so TEOG is selling 300K * 0.024 = 7.2K per week perhaps. The formula usually works well for itunes positions beyond about #50.

Edited by Magoo
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