6/23 Primary Prediction Results (Pt. 1)

[Franch Toast 27,745]

3 minutes ago, JRCF29 said:

I currently expect both parties to lose two seats to the other, so the Senate will still be under GOP control 53-47. 

Democrats are losing the Doug Jones seat in Alabama and I don't see a way around that. They also have to defend a contested seat in Michigan and one in New Hampshire, where the presidential swing state status is sure to bleed into the Senate race. Ultimately I expect them to lose the seat in Michigan provided the Republican candidate John James makes things as competitive as I expect him to in the coming months. 

Republicans appear to have already lost the McSally seat in Arizona and I expect that they will lose in Colorado too, although Hickenlooper is not exactly turning in his best performance thus far. There's also potential for Maine to flip, as well as North Carolina. 

I'm not sure that John James will do that well, but of course, time will tell. Trump just barely won Michigan by the skin of his teeth, but Democratic voters will be mobilized to vote this fall for the presidential election (Michiganders are fed up with Trump), and I don't see many people who are voting for Biden voting for John James. Governor Whitmer is overall doing well in her approval ratings thanks to how she's managed the pandemic – don't let the loud anti-lockdown voices fool you. I could be wrong, but I am hopeful. 

I think Maine is going to flip. People hate Susan Collins at this point. Alabama will probably go to a Republican. No idea about the other races. 

[JRCF29 8,230]

 

2 hours ago, NathanC said:

So basically another 4 years of inaction In terms of legislation. This is really sad. 

It's still early in the cycle and there's time for things to evolve (that goes both ways though, by this time in October we could be looking at a big Dem flip or even gains for the GOP.) politics is very fluid and the only polling that really matters is the one on election day