Michael Burry of "The big short" slams lockdowns

[Economy 53,221]

22 minutes ago, Florin said:

It says in another tweet that estimates are 0,2 % - 0,5 %, so you are right that he is using the lowest estimates. 

However, he is an expert in numbers. If he is cherry picking the best numbers to prove his point, so does anyone else. 

All data that we have is directly connected to how many people each country decided to test, so it is very unreliable. 

I know. And I don't like that

 

But my point is if ur gonna suggest something shouldn't be done that's being done in an attempt to save lives... Using the best case scenario numbers instead of the most likely or middle numbers is not very moving

 

I have mixed feelings about the shutdown myself given the amount of harm it does too

 

But we need accurate information and alternatives to make any decisions such as abandoning the only measure we currently have to save lives. It can't be based on arguments of unverified numbers or best case scenario numbers. This is too serious to assume the best case scenario

[Economy 53,221]

5 hours ago, GaGaAst said:

If China had maintained sanitation or at least controlled the virus in 2019, 2020 would have been far better. 

China literally has had probably the most harsh lockdowns any Nation has taken so far. They literally welded doors so ppl couldn't get out

 

If it was so easy to manage why are other nations struggling so bad too?

 

Ppl are holding China to an unfair standard

 

In terms of transparency and honesty from the Chinese government early on it seems they weren't truly transparent and for that criticism is warranted

 

But in terms of trying to contain it no one can say they didnt try

 

Also the amount of anti-Asian Rehetoric I'm seeing is sickening. And ppl are literally avoiding the Chinese Grocery stores cuz they still think Asian logo = getting infected . Not to mention that even if there was some magical connection there (which there isn't), 90% of the brands of products in that store are the same as other Canadian grocery stores anyway. 

 

well good for me and my family I guess. At least we have a store near by that isn't as packed right now since everyone is trying to avoid it

 

[Bt1 5,213]

6 minutes ago, Economy said:

I know. And I don't like that

 

But my point is if ur gonna suggest something shouldn't be done that's being done in an attempt to save lives... Using the best case scenario numbers instead of the most likely or middle numbers is not very moving

 

I have mixed feelings about the shutdown myself given the amount of harm it does too

 

But we need accurate information and alternatives to make any decisions such as abandoning the only measure we currently have to save lives. It can't be based on arguments of unverified numbers or best case scenario numbers. This is too serious to assume the best case scenario

I understand your point and respect it. I just cant agree with the idea of a lockdown without time limits.

[Economy 53,221]

23 minutes ago, Florin said:

I understand your point and respect it. I just cant agree with the idea of a lockdown without time limits.

I mean. I support some kind of timeline too

 

It's not realistic to just shut everything down for a year or more till a vaccine comes out unless we want all of society to collapse

 

I support a temporary lockdown to buy us time to get prepared and to build up health system I never said I support the lock down indefinitely

 

Just that in OP Michael seems to suggest we shouldn't have done anything at all period even temporarily. I think the potential of mass death and doing nothing because it might hurt economy tho is unacceptable 

 

[Daylight Jokers 14,958]

Is the fatality rate in Italy and Spain not enough proof that this virus shouldn't be downplayed? Here in the Philippines, the number of fatalities is higher than the number of recoveries and that's not a good sign. Not staying home will get more people infected and will overwhelm hospitals (and it already is in some countries). We already lost so many medical healthworkers in a span of two weeks because of the lack of PPEs. A lockdown's proven to be the most effective way to slow this virus down from spreading. What the media is showing is not fear mongering anymore, it's now our reality.

[ProdigyARTPOP 3,910]

The United States government, knew about this since January 1st, they simply didn’t give a damn, we can’t blame anyone but our individual governments for believing conspiracies or simply not caring, they didn’t act and that’s why were in the situation we’re in. You guys need to realize, that politicians and government rarely care about the common people, they can afford not to care (they’ll go to their bunkers and houses in the hills and survive while we starve, try to figure out how to live and/or die.) they’re the problem not us

[AsleepOnTheCeiling 7,055]

4 hours ago, homomo said:

 

China announced the virus on December 31st. Basically no one outside China was infected at that point.

Because of the lack of testing and knowledge about the virus at that time, there's a chance that the virus actually was spread around then. 

2 hours ago, GaGaAst said:

I understand it but why are people so supportive for China. There are multiple theories about how they tried to hide about virus until it was uncontrollable and also about killing the doctor who tried to warn about the virus. They knew about the virus but didn't bother to control the situation. It started from a center of China, which is a huge country. Had they acted properly it wouldn't have escaped China thought might have affected the surrounding cities. 

 

Firstly, the key word in your argument is THEORIES, not facts. Secondly, because of how mobile we are in this day and age, people aren't limited to "surrounding cities", and it could have left China at any point.

1 hour ago, ltlmnstr said:

unless you are arguing that this is a bio tech weapon from China which is...peddling the 2003 conspiracy that sars is a mix of mumps and measles...

There's actually research that suggests that the virus was NOT man made because of how it evolved from other known coronaviruses.

[Economy 53,221]

40 minutes ago, ProdigyARTPOP said:

The United States government, knew about this since January 1st, they simply didn’t give a damn, we can’t blame anyone but our individual governments for believing conspiracies or simply not caring, they didn’t act and that’s why were in the situation we’re in. You guys need to realize, that politicians and government rarely care about the common people, they can afford not to care (they’ll go to their bunkers and houses in the hills and survive while we starve, try to figure out how to live and/or die.) they’re the problem not us

I think that's harsh tho. We had no way of knowing that early on that this was going to be so difficult to contain

 

We've have plenty of outbreaks in the past that caused concerned but got contained without a full National lockdown

 

It's so easy to look back at it now and say that's what should have been done but something as economically costly as a full lockdown is not something u just do in a snap assuming every worst case scenario

 

Big decisions have to be done on data, evidence and as situations evolve

 

There's no way on January 1st we could have expected everyone to start doing lockdowns.

 

By that argument based on the information we had at the time, H1N1, SARS, Ebola etc should have gotten total lockdowns too

[Bt1 5,213]

15 minutes ago, Economy said:

I think that's harsh tho. We had no way of knowing that early on that this was going to be so difficult to contain

 

We've have plenty of outbreaks in the past that caused concerned but got contained without a full National lockdown

 

It's so easy to look back at it now and say that's what should have been done but something as economically costly as a full lockdown is not something u just do in a snap assuming every worst case scenario

 

Big decisions have to be done on data, evidence and as situations involved

 

There's no way on January 1st we could have expected everyone to start doing lockdowns.

 

But that argument based on the information we had at the time, H1N1, SARS, Ebola etc should have gotten total lockdowns too

The scary thing is this may become the rule from now on. 

[ImTired 3,956]

A lot of this "it's just like the flu" talk is political. The Republicans f@#$&* up bad, they know it, its hurting everyone, and the blowback is only going to get worse. 

[jezze0410 395]

I see a lot of criticisms about Western countries' inaction despite ample warning from China, and I would just like to point out the fact that even that is very much China's fault; while it was clear that China was taking unprecedented, draconian measures in locking down cities, the raw data coming out of China in no way reflected the severity of the outbreak. I remember reading articles early on in Italy's outbreak about how hospital staff were lamenting that what they were seeing was magnitudes worse than what the data from China suggested, and the UK's civil servants and politicians have been reported as being furious with China for the same reason.

I guess one could criticise Western countries for being too naïve in trusting China's data (ground reports from China have suggested that this to be the case), but the WHO (on which all countries rely for official information) has blindly accepted China's claims, and has been pandering to China to an almost humiliating degree (delay in confirming human-to-human transmission, advice against travel bans to/from China, delay in declaring a pandemic, endless praise for China's response, dodging questions about Taiwan's success in containing the virus, etc.). I recognise that much of this kowtowing is to ensure future Chinese cooperation, but it's still a complete farce, and to me the organisation has lost all its credibility.

Regarding the lockdown in particular, while I can see it being partially lifted, it really is unreasonable to expect it to be lifted completely until a vaccine is developed. Hong Kong and Singapore are going through second waves of confirmed cases (asymptomatic locals based in the west returning home to relative normality), and the former has even begun preparations for a third wave (asymptomatic mainland Chinese workers resuming work and travel).

[Economy 53,221]

5 minutes ago, Florin said:

The scary thing is this may become the rule from now on. 

I hope the ppl don't start demanding that to be the standard way to deal with every threat that comes up. But knowing people and their demands I would not be surprised

 

I'm not saying lockdowns like we're doing now shouldn't be done but they should be done as a last resort... Not something u instantly jump straight to everytime a potential threat comes up otherwise we will be doing lockdowns constantly

 

I also wanna point out the amount of money spent already cuz of the lock down on economy, the same amount of money could save even more lives if it had been used to help poverty and sickness in Africa or even general healthcare everywhere including in rich Countries.

 

Funny how when an issue reported by the media is a health threat to the developed world suddenly gets attention but the number of people who die everyday of poverty in Africa get no attention anymore either cuz it's old news or doesn't concern developed world... Or both...

[Bt1 5,213]

17 minutes ago, Economy said:

I hope the ppl don't start demanding that to be the standard way to deal with every threat that comes up. But knowing people and their demands I would not be surprised

 

I'm not saying lockdowns like we're doing now shouldn't be done but they should be done as a last resort... Not something u instantly jump straight to everytime a potential threat comes up otherwise we will be doing lockdowns constantly

 

I also wanna point out the amount of money spent already cuz of the lock down on economy, the same amount of money could save even more lives if it had been used to help poverty and sickness in Africa or even general healthcare everywhere including in rich Countries.

 

Funny how when an issue reported by the media is a health threat to the developed world suddenly gets attention but the number of people who die everyday of poverty in Africa get no attention anymore either cuz it's old news or doesn't concern developed world... Or both...

I wont be surprised by anything anymore, after today I had conversations here with people that were ok with one year lockdowns. 

In a way, I finally understood that people dont want to talk about the details yet. I hope that at least after it's over, the discussions will take place with some clear data, because this precedent is very dangerous. 

[Economy 53,221]

2 minutes ago, Florin said:

I wont be surprised by anything anymore, after today I had conversations here with people that were ok with one year lockdowns.

In a way, I finally understood that people dont want to talk about the details yet. I hope that at least after it's over, the discussions will take place with some clear data, because this precedent is very dangerous. 

One year lockdowns are not possible. And those here that support that probably don't have a full motion of the price doing that would come at

 

They probably think it's as simple as taxing the rich or print money to keep society a float

 

[DeleteMyAccount 11,881]

We'd probably have double the amount of cases deaths right now if we weren't sheltering in place.

Also, if most jobs being lost are leisure and retail, then why would he care?

I can tell you right now that jobs in the journalism/reporting field are in trouble based on what I'm hearing. And there are many to come in the other industries as well. 

I give it a week for him to reverse his stance. Just like Evangeline Lily...