GipJo 2,912 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, elijahfan said: The number is around 50,000 cremations in Q4 2019, not every quarter... the article goes on to say this is 1,583 higher than the fourth quarter of 2018, and 2,231 more than the fourth quarter of 2017. Is there something I'm not reading correctly? The death rate of 1st quarter is not far off from 4th, with populations growing up, of course death will be up too. Here are the number: Wuhan has 1.7% population increase in 2018, and 0.2% more (2%) increase in 2019, while the data article shows death rate 3% higher in 2019Q4, 1.2% higher in 2018Q4, which I don't see a problem. And anyway that still proves my points, that those urns includes all deaths from last two months after shut down, and 42000 urns show that the death number is actually quite accurate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GipJo 2,912 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, elijahfan said: But why are they saying the 2019 number is 1,583 higher than during fourth quarter of 2018? Is the article flat-out lying? Population are growing, it's China we are talking about, not North Europe. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GipJo 2,912 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, GipJo said: The death rate of 1st quarter is not far off from 4th, with populations growing up, of course death will be up too. Here are the number: Wuhan has 1.7% population increase in 2018, and 0.2% more (2%) increase in 2019, while the data article shows death rate 3% higher in 2019Q4, 1.2% higher in 2018Q4, which I don't see a problem. And anyway that still proves my points, that those urns includes all deaths from last two months after shut down, and 42000 urns show that the death number is actually quite accurate. And also that article assumed those death are all due to virus is straight up bs and subjectively misleading because the city shut down in January, nobody came to funeral parlors to collect the ashes until they reopened this Friday, and that's a fact, if you are a journalist, you couldn't possibly not know that when you cover the report. So the article intentionally didn't tell you that, which is bad journalism to me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijahfan 27,499 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, GipJo said: Population are growing, it's China we are talking about, not North Europe. Did the Wuhan population increase in such a way it explains there has been 1,583 more dead people in Q4 2019 than in Q4 2018? I'm sorry, but a 0,2% increase in population and 3% in mortality rate in the past year literally don't justify the explosion in numbers in Q4. Asserting around 50,000 people die in Wuhan every quarter like you suggested is simply wrong. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijahfan 27,499 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, GipJo said: And also that article assumed those death are all due to virus is straight up bs and subjectively misleading because the city shut down in January, nobody came to funeral parlor to collect the ashes until them reopened this Friday, and that's a fact, if you are a journalist, you couldn't possibly not know that when you cover the report. So the article intentionally didn't tell you that, which is bad journalism to me. So 1,583 times more people juste died in Wuhan mainly of natural causes? That's your explanation? People just decided to all die in Q4 2019? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GipJo 2,912 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, elijahfan said: Did the Wuhan population increase 1,583 times to explain there has been 1,583 more dead people in Q4 2019 than in Q4 2018? I'm sorry, but a 0,2% increase in population and 3% in mortality rate in the past year literally don't justify the explosion in numbers in Q4. Asserting around 50,000 people die in Wuhan every quarter like you suggested is simply wrong. Read below, it's 0.2% more, not 0.2% increase, the increase is 2%. 15 minutes ago, GipJo said: Here are the number: Wuhan has 1.7% population increase in 2018, and 0.2% more (2%) increase in 2019, while the data article shows death rate 3% higher in 2019Q4, 1.2% higher in 2018Q4, which I don't see a problem. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijahfan 27,499 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 minute ago, GipJo said: Read below, it's 0.2% more, not 0.2% increase, the increase is 2%. Still... It's too low a number to justify what you're trying to say. You know what, I'm literally not enjoying this conversation right now because there are people behind those numbers, and going on seems quite unhealthy and disrespectful, so draw your conclusions, I'll draw mine, and let's agree to disagree. I'm just far from convinced that China's being transparent here, and it's not like they have a great record to help them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GipJo 2,912 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, elijahfan said: So 1,583 times more people juste died in Wuhan mainly of natural causes? That's your explanation? People just decided to all die in Q4 2019? Wow you really don't know math do you? 1583 more people died in Q4, and that's 3% death increase for Q4, and the whole year has 2% population increase, is it really abnormally wrong? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GipJo 2,912 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, elijahfan said: Still... It's too low a number to justify what you're trying to say. You know what, I'm literally not enjoying this conversation right now because there are people behind those numbers, and going on seems quite unhealthy and disrespectful, so draw your conclusions, I'll draw mine, and let's agree to disagree. I'm just far from convinced that China's being transparent here, and it's not like they have a great record to help them. If you want to believe what you believe that's fine by me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijahfan 27,499 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, GipJo said: Wow you really don't know math do you? 1583 more people died in Q4, and that's 3% death increase for Q4, and the whole year has 2% population increase, is it really abnormally wrong? I'm sorry, I am just now understanding what you mean, my bad. The article still states: "By minusing the expected deaths of roughly 16,000 in Wuhan, based on China's annual death rate over two and a half months, they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths." Their official number of 3,304 is quite a far cry. We will obviously never get a clear, precise number, but many elements lead us to believe the death toll is much higher than what they say, and comparing with other less populated countries like Italy for instance that already has roughly 10,000 Covid-19 linked deaths, this is really suspicious. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woolfsmck 2,763 Posted March 30, 2020 Author Share Posted March 30, 2020 33 minutes ago, elijahfan said: Did the Wuhan population increase 1,583 times to explain there has been 1,583 more dead people in Q4 2019 than in Q4 2018? I'm sorry, but a 0,2% increase in population and 3% in mortality rate in the past year literally don't justify the explosion in numbers in Q4. Asserting around 50,000 people die in Wuhan every quarter like you suggested is simply wrong. Population growth does not equate to an equal increase in the mortality rate at the same time.... China is hiding the real damage from covid. like a cat in a sil, I observe life, moving and still. My words give a clue,look inside to see whats true Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijahfan 27,499 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said: Population growth does not equate to an equal increase in the mortality rate at the same time.... China is hiding the real damage from covid. Thanks for pointing that out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noah X 5,250 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Watch the US top this in a few weeks Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister G 10,513 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Chromatic Lover said: Before your ignorance jumps out look below: No ignorance here. Just skeptical about what the Chinese government wants communicated. No need to also assume my ignorance was going to jump out either—that was rather rude and uncalled for to say that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 6 hours ago, Woolfsmck said: I don't believe that China is telling the world the truth about the virus impact on their people. Of course not. They've been lying since day one Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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