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Hurricanes Irma and Jose


Lion Heart

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calmar

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Composite image of Hurricane Andrew (left, 1992) and Hurricane Irma (right, 2017.) Irma is the size of the state of Texas and can fit Andrew inside it twice. For reference, Andrew caused $26.5 billion dollars in damage to south Florida in 1992 dollars.

 

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Robagaga

Hurricane IRMA 08/09/17 UPDATE

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Impacts

The Dominican republic and Haiti were battered by this hurricane even though it passed more than 100 miles north of the island nations. There are reports of severe flooding and damage along the coast, including severe power outages, the extent of the damage still has to be assessed. The Turks and Caicos and US and UK virgin Islands were also pummeled by the storm and widespread damage is being reported. When more information comes in I will inform you. 

The current casualty count across the caribbean is of around 18, but this is unfortunately expected to rise as damage control in the island's first hit is still going on. 

Damage control in the islands that were first hit by the storm is ongoing and I will keep you updated

Forecast 

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The storm is currently about 100 miles north of Cuba and is expected to batter the islands of Cuba and the bahamas, Storm surge in some areas of the Bahamas is expected to be catastrophic as the storm affects the area in the coming hours. 

I have some good news, and some bad news regarding the forecast. 

The good news is that the storm is steadily weakening, After interacting with hispaniola it has officially been downgraded to category 4 with 150 mph winds. This is still nothing to scoff at and can be extremely destructive if it makes landfall. The storm is expected to further weaken as it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, however, depending on the track the storm might reintensify right before landfall. In any case if it makes landfall the NHC is currently predicting it will still be a cat 4.

Now regarding the track of the storm which is I think what most of you are interested in. The bad news is that the track has shifted west significantly meaning the chance of a Florida landfall is around 80%, The exact location of that landfall is still unknown. However no matter where the storm would make landfall, the storm is expected to to travel along the spine of the state meaning that the quasi totality of the state of Florida will feel impacts from the storm. It would then cross into georgia and might still be a tropical storm by the time it reaches Atlanta. The states of Alabama and the Carolinas might still receive impacts, the extent of these it is still too early to tell. 

However,this track is still extremely volatile and significant changes are still possible, in any case, regardless of the track, the southern part of the state should start receiving tropical storm force winds around SATURDAY MORNING and the possible landfall would be in the wee hours of sunday. This should make you realize the size of this storm. 

It is extremely important for people to stay updated on this track, as just one slight variation could make a massive difference, one of these variations to look at is how close the storm gets to Cuba, the closer it gets the weaker it will become but the wester the track will be. I have my eyes peeled for when the storm starts its sharp north turn and whenever that happens we will have much more certainty in the track. 

The current storm surge predictions are also quite frightening with some areas that could have up to 20 feet storm surges. 

In florida there have been Massive evacuation orders issued especially in Miami Dade county, and the streets are packed, if you are in a mandatory evacuation GET OUT NOW it is now joke, This storm WILL BE MUCH WORSE THAN MATTHEW and is mostly likely going to be MUCH WORSE THAN ANDREW! THIS IS YOUR LAST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO EVACUATE OTHERWISE IT WILL BE TOO LATE.

Stay safe out there :kara: 

If you are in the affected are when the storm hits PLEASE KEEP US UPDATED!!!! WE WANT TO KNOW IF ALL IS OK!!! 

:heart: 

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Everyone you meet is fighting a battle you know nothing about. Be kind. Always.
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holy scheisse

Thank you for doing this. I am lucky to have gotten a flight out of there and am safe. But I'm worried about all my friends, about my man, about my apartment and car... About everybody. Stay safe Florida, Cuba, and Bahamas....

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Lion Heart

 

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Robagaga
2 minutes ago, Lion Heart said:

 

Omg....

My heart just sunk

I hope this isn't true,

I was hoping the eyewall replacement was for a smaller eyewall. 

When the next NOAA happens I will update with the official NHC Update, 

this is major

Everyone you meet is fighting a battle you know nothing about. Be kind. Always.
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calmar
9 minutes ago, Robagaga said:

Omg....

My heart just sunk

I hope this isn't true,

I was hoping the eyewall replacement was for a smaller eyewall. 

When the next NOAA happens I will update with the official NHC Update, 

this is major

I mean it might tighten/shrink in size as the hurricane gathers more power now that the cycle is over, but yeah, that's horrifying. For scale, that eye is large enough for Boston, Massachusetts, and Providence, Rhode Island to be within the eye at the same time. 

For European/non-American members, 46 miles is 74km. 

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Robagaga
Just now, calmar said:

I mean it might tighten/shrink in size as the hurricane gathers more power now that the cycle is over, but yeah, that's horrifying. For scale, that eye is large enough for Boston, Massachusetts, and Providence, Rhode Island to be within the eye at the same time. 

For European/non-American members, 46 miles is 74km. 
 

This is especially bad for 2 reasons.

1. The storm might reintensify 

2. Much more people will have hurricane force winds. This is because since the eye is larger, the diameter of hurricane force winds surrounding the eye will be larger.

Everyone you meet is fighting a battle you know nothing about. Be kind. Always.
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calmar
1 minute ago, Robagaga said:

This is especially bad for 2 reasons.

1. The storm might reintensify 

2. Much more people will have hurricane force winds. This is because since the eye is larger, the diameter of hurricane force winds surrounding the eye will be larger.

Update from Calmar's even more enigmatic maternal unit: "Total chaos now. No gas, lots of people. Lake City [Florida] is nuts. Just stopped to let dogs go to the bathroom. Now it looks like an evacuation.... right now it's bad." 

Lake City, for reference for those not familiar with Florida, is within 30mi/46km of the border with the state of Georgia, and is 336mi/541km from Miami, and not on the same major national highway.

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Lion Heart

We may have to start tracking Lee next week.

 

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