Official Discussion Thread: U.S Presidential Election 2020

[Luc 4,776]

District NY-14 (2020; 91% of votes counted):

 

Congressional race: 

AOC (D): 105,455 votes, 68.69%

JC Cummings (R): 46,877 votes, 30.53%

 

Presidential race:

Biden (D): 111,478 votes, 69.53%

Trump (R): 47,136 votes, 29.40%

 

 

Not really conclusive. AOC doesn't seem to turn off that many people, though AOC slightly underperformed Biden. But the higher number of voters overall for the presidential contest makes me wonder whether we can rely on this comparison, maybe the counting for the presidential race is almost finished while the congressional counting isn't. Let's wait for all votes to be counted. It should eventually be possible to assess how progressive congressional candidates performed versus centrists in similar districts, also along different demographics, so we can have a more fruitful discussion on what strategy works best for the Democratic party.

[Morphine Prince 109,654]

52 minutes ago, Luc said:

Does anyone know how AOC's results in her district compared to Biden's results in that same district? Did AOC underperform or overperform Biden?

This is not a good metric because some people go in there and literally only vote for president and don’t bother with the rest.

[FATCAT 60,888]

29 minutes ago, HorusRa2 said:

1. Young people were not turned off by Bernie in 2020. What a ridiculous lie. 

They definitely weren't turned into voters in the primaries, that's for sure. Bernie just didn't get the votes he needed from young people & across the board.

[Morphine Prince 109,654]

1 minute ago, FATCAT said:

They definitely weren't turned into voters in the primaries, that's for sure. Bernie just didn't get the votes he needed from young people & across the board.

Young people are the group that votes the least. 

He was still OVERWHELMINGLY the preferred candidate of people under 40. 

Young people came out to vote in droves last week because Trump is a threat to our democracy. 

They will not be showing up in these numbers in 4 years, unfortunately. 

[FATCAT 60,888]

57 minutes ago, Luc said:

Does anyone know how AOC's results in her district compared to Biden's results in that same district? Did AOC underperform or overperform Biden?

Since her district is not bound by county lines, we really don't know. But the average of the two counties Queens/Bronx gave Biden a 75% victory, while AOC's was 68% of the vote. You could say she underperformed, but it's not a 1:1 unfortunately. 

[bionic 50,111]

14 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

Pls

 

The fact Trumpsters decry anything that doesn’t suit their narrative as fake news  Four years later and it still hasn’t got old 

[FATCAT 60,888]

3 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said:

Young people are the group that votes the least. 

He was still OVERWHELMINGLY the preferred candidate of people under 40. 

Young people came out to vote in droves last week because Trump is a threat to our democracy. 

They will not be showing up in these numbers in 4 years, unfortunately. 

We definitely need to get turnout up for people under 40. Hopefully he can give us a partial blueprint for engagement, but ultimately he lost the primaries because they didn't turn out, so there must be something else to unlock that demographic. 

[Supersonic 49,376]

Not to be a party pooper but... what are the demographics of the first time voters gonna look like in 2024? Because... y'all might just wanna encourage young people of color to vote since white Gen Z'ers overwhelmingly lean Trump/Republican  

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

22 minutes ago, FATCAT said:

We definitely need to get turnout up for people under 40. Hopefully he can give us a partial blueprint for engagement, but ultimately he lost the primaries because they didn't turn out, so there must be something else to unlock that demographic. 

He lost the primary largely because all the other moderate candidates tapped out and endorsed Biden the night before the most important day of the primary Super Tuesday, consolidating the moderate vote behind Biden while the progressive vote was still split between Bernie and Warren.

Let's not be misleading and provide information out of context please. Be honest.

[FATCAT 60,888]

5 minutes ago, Gagaloo911 said:

He lost the primary largely because all the other moderate candidates tapped out and endorsed Biden the night before the most important day of the primary Super Tuesday, consolidating the moderate vote behind Biden while the progressive vote was still split between Bernie and Warren.

Let's not be misleading and provide information out of context please. Be honest.

But you yourself said it, the moderate vote consolidated and the progressive vote didn't. Even if Warren and Biden had combined their SC primary numbers, they wouldn't have beaten Biden. They'd still be almost 20% behind him. He lost because he couldn't get the votes, plain and simple.

[Othon 34,299]

2 hours ago, FATCAT said:

We definitely need to get turnout up for people under 40. Hopefully he can give us a partial blueprint for engagement, but ultimately he lost the primaries because they didn't turn out, so there must be something else to unlock that demographic. 

Biden: *spends the election trashing the left, saying that he'll veto legislation that would give Americans healthcare, and telling Latino activists to vote for Trump, subsequently loses ground with Black and Brown voters that make up the Dem base, loses ground with moderates and Republican voters despite making courting them the central prong of his campaign, barely gets propelled to victory on the backs of organizers in swing states and a deadly pandemic but down-ballot races are a disaster for Dems*

Liberals: "King! His strategy was a smashing success! We should keep pandering to Republicans and should NEVER adopt policies like M4A that are overwhelmingly popular. None of his failings are a reflection of the electoral viability of his ideology at all. "

Bernie: *faces overwhelming pushback and criticism from the press who tell their old liberal audience that they can't vote for him if they want to win elections, gets called a Nazi by MSNBC hosts, becomes the first person in the history of the US to win the popular vote in Iowa, NH and Nevada before facing an unprecedented consolidation of establishment power behind his primary opponent while he's still the frontrunner, loses as a result and can't magically, drastically increase youth voters that face deliberate institutional roadblocks that are designed to prevent them from voting and that don't typically vote in primaries anyway.*

Liberals: "He just couldn't get the votes.  Such a shame. This must be a referendum on progressive policies, and I guess voters just don't want them. They must be lying in all of that exit data. And it looks like young people are just lazy freeloaders.  Too bad. He and his supporters should go away now. "

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

2 minutes ago, FATCAT said:

But you yourself said it, the moderate vote consolidated and the progressive vote didn't. Even if Warren and Biden had combined their SC primary numbers, they wouldn't have beaten Biden. They'd still be almost 20% behind him. He lost because he couldn't get the votes, plain and simple.

The mental gymnastics to make it seem you're right. Of course the progressive vote didn't consolidate when there was more than one progressive candidate when moderates only had one. How misleading can you get 

And interesting you only mention SC and none of the others.

Completely fails to mention that had many of the moderates stayed in, that vote would have also been split. Not saying Bernie would for sure have won, but certainly would have been in a better position.

[FATCAT 60,888]

2 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

Biden: *spends the election trashing the left, saying that he'll veto legislation that would give Americans healthcare, and telling Latino activists to vote for Trump, subsequently loses ground with Black and Brown voters that make up the Dem base, loses ground with moderates and Republican voters despite making courting them the central prong of his campaign, barely gets propelled to victory on the backs of organizers in swing states and a deadly pandemic but down-ballot races are a disaster for Dems*

Liberals: "King! His strategy was a smashing success! We should keep pandering to Republicans and should NEVER adopt policies like M4A that are overwhelmingly popular. None of his failings are a reflection of the electoral viability of his ideology at all. "

Bernie: *faces overwhelming pushback and criticism from the press who tell their old liberal audience that they can't vote for him if they want to win elections, gets called a Nazi by MSNBC hosts, becomes the first person in the history of the US to win the popular vote in Iowa, NH and Nevada before facing an unprecedented consolidation of establishment power behind his primary opponent while he's still the frontrunner, loses as a result and can't magically, drastically increase youth voters that face deliberate institutional roadblocks that are designed to prevent them from voting and that don't typically vote in primaries anyway."

Liberals: "He just couldn't get the votes.  Such a shame. This must be a referendum on progressive policies, and I guess voters just don't want them. They must be lying in all of that exit data. And it looks like young people are just lazy freeloaders.  Too bad. He and his supporters should go away now. "

Black voters are the backbone of this party, and they were not present in the first 3 primary contests. 

Bernie lost by a landslide in South Carolina because he didn't have the support of the backbone of the party. 

You lost, it's in the past, get over it. We have a lot more challenges ahead & you only hurt your cause by whining about elections past. 

[FATCAT 60,888]

5 minutes ago, Gagaloo911 said:

The mental gymnastics to make it seem you're right. Of course the progressive vote didn't consolidate when there was more than one progressive candidate when moderates only had one. How misleading can you get 

And interesting you only mention SC and none of the others.

Completely fails to mention that had many of the moderates stayed in, that vote would have also been split. Not saying Bernie would for sure have won, but certainly would have been in a better position.

Still 20% behind the winner. I'm not being misleading or using mental gymnastics, it's just straight numbers. Look it up.

[FATCAT 60,888]

28 minutes ago, Supersonic said:

Not to be a party pooper but... what are the demographics of the first time voters gonna look like in 2024? Because... y'all might just wanna encourage young people of color to vote since white Gen Z'ers overwhelmingly lean Trump/Republican  

Do you have data on this? I'd love to take a look at the trend lines