David Ward 9,613 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, JudasJustDance said: Chances of Biden winning Wisconsin and Georgia? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Adarsh said: Do you think Biden can get Pennsylvania and Michigan? I’m hoping really hard. My guesstimate is that he gets both, but we won’t know for a couple of days. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Lion Heart said: Its a mess. The election is way closer than most mainstream polls predicted, and we are still missing several mail in ballots in key states like MI, PA, WI and Georgia is still missing thr Atlanta vote. The Red Mirage is real. So its very close and we dont know who will win yet right? Im looking at the news and im not sure whats going on because im not American Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luc 4,776 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Luc said: The "high-quality" pollsters use live-callers, live-caller polls are more likely to (a) get socially desirable answers and (b) more likely to misrepresent how minorities and white non-college educated people vote (because the people with more trust in society are more likely to pick up, and more likely to vote Biden). Even after correcting for education, race and everything, you'll still misrepresent these people, especially the independents. A mix of live-caller, online and at-the-door would work best. Take 1000 people from voting files, and make sure >90% of those actually respond. Don't take 10k people and be content that 1k picked up the phone. The Republican pollsters were also incorrect, they had similar methodologies but put weird stuff in their crosstabs (like 70-30 for black people) to make it seem like Republicans were doing better, but they also don't know how to poll these people. Pollsters should take a look at Europe and see what works. France so far has the best track record on correctly polling far-right white people. We have 27 countries in the EU, and there's other countries like the UK and Australia which behave similarly to the US as well, pretty much all of them by now have a far-right or at least anti-immigration party, so that's over 27 elections every four years where they can check how different polling methodologies work. At some point you might just have to say 'okay, we get these results, let's just add +5 R to it despite what our sample says'. btw it's not like I didn't say this earlier... and this is the electoral map I made 538 should hire me after I finish uni only got Arizona wrong so far, and might get Pennsylvania and Georgia (likely R instead of lean R/tossup) wrong Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 guys there is hope lets light our candles and pray Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
eunino 1,502 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sloansabbith said: Wisconsin he will win. Georgia I won’t be shocked either way. Though the count is taking long because they are likely shredding Biden votes. But how come in WI if it’s tending red for a while? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarahb 17,189 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 What's the update on Arizona? Do you feel him sir? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAsUnic0rn 2,247 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, venusinmyhead said: guys there is hope lets light our candles and pray this is the spirit we need. we have to have trust and faith. And willpower to stand this mess through. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
River 127,561 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 did someone check on gaga in all this mess? is she ok? So sploosh your juice all over me you Riverboy Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FATCAT 60,888 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Faysalaaa said: So its very close and we dont know who will win yet right? Im looking at the news and im not sure whats going on because im not American It's close because we just don't have complete data for a lot of states, we just don't know This kitten over here (meow) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JudasJustDance 1,621 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, eunino said: But how come in WI if it’s tend red for a while? This. I mean I trust y’all and I don’t doubt we’ll win Wisconsin but it has been light red for a while now Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Ward 9,613 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Adarsh said: Do you think Biden can get Pennsylvania and Michigan? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FATCAT 60,888 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, sarahb said: What's the update on Arizona? Blue, for Biden This kitten over here (meow) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sloansabbith 136 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAsUnic0rn said: Democrats had a big shot. Yes. But they were always far too close to get called for any one of these two. And to feel in any way safe. Especially since Texas is red for decades now and Florida voted Trump in 2016. Florida and Texas always were a best case scenario for Democrats. Yes. Texas was a lofty dream. The last time a democrat won it, was Carter in 1976. Florida was more likely but not really in the cards for Biden. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, eunino said: But how come in WI if it’s tending red for a while? Milwaukee area still has a lot of uncounted votes. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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