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politics

2016’s polls explained and what to do with 2020’s

StarstruckIllusion

An important and informative video I’d like to share by one of the leading polling calculators, since I’ve seen some poll truthers on here...

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Eighteen

well to me the video was making a case for the usefulness of polls but then at the end was like... bc 2020 is so unusual, there's more uncertainty, so it's kinda up in the air. 

honestly i personally use polls these days as sort of a weak indicator of where the winds are blowing. people might disagree with that but idk i just wonder how the last time education was a missing factor, but what if there's another factor now that isn't being considered, particularly bc this year is so full of variables  

i will say though that in terms of blue candidates running in red states where the polls have them tied with the red incumbent, i'm like fairly certain the challenger will lose. i heard a republican say that if you're a democrat tied up in the polls in a red state that that is losing, and i don't have an intellectual rationale for why, but i pretty much agree with that 

 

Edited by Eighteen
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Eighteen

sorry, your thread might become spammed with responses because i was spamming the **** out of the submit button and nothing was happening until i opened an incognito window!

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MJHolland

tbh we stan Fivey Fox :tony:

Polling is still a scientific method, but it's not a crystal ball, so they get it wrong sometimes. But we can learn from their past mistakes a make them better! 

Also, just a friendly reminder that the polls we're that wrong nationally in 2016. Just goes to show you how valuable every vote is! 

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PussPuss

Not fivethirtyeight trying to cover their ass lmao. 

Free Pussin'

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President Biden

Thank you. Been trying to explain to people that pollsters actually predicted Trump winning Michigan at the last minute, and that Hillary blatantly ignored Bill telling her to campaign there.

 

Luckily Biden is much more strategic & not remotely egotistical, so he will learn from HRC’s mistakes

I got drunk

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ZacharyMark
1 minute ago, President Biden said:

Thank you. Been trying to explain to people that pollsters actually predicted Trump winning Michigan at the last minute, and that Hillary blatantly ignored Bill telling her to campaign there.

 

Luckily Biden is much more strategic & not remotely egotistical, so he will learn from HRC’s mistakes

People don't understand polls. Hillary was correctly predicted to win the popular vote within the margin that was given to her in the polls.

Her loss in Wisconsin was not that far fetched either. The polls were very close to the actual final results. However, in most States, the undecided votes ultimately all when to Trump. People don't want to research and think. But blaming polls for their discomfort will work too I guess.

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Chromatican

I'm still wary of trusting the polls after this video. There are so many factors and the SCOTUS may pull shenanigans. I just hate the uncertainty right now.

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bionic

The best thing to do with polls is ignore them. The only poll that matters is election day

buy bionic

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