Biden Polling Better Than Any Challenger Since 1936

[caulixtla 2,170]

15 minutes ago, Admin said:

Did Hillary have a sizeable lead over Trump in the polls or was it as close as the election results were?

Biden has a bigger lead than Hillary.

Exhibit one: What if the polls are as wrong as they were on November 8, 2016? Biden is still winning: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

Exhibit two: Compare the 2016 general polling numbers for HIllary vs. Biden’s numbers. Observe something: Multiple times, Trump was polling better than Clinton. But, Trump has not once had a better RCP average than Biden. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html vs. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html Clinton was up 6.7 this time in 2016 but Biden is up 9.8

Edit Exhibit three: In Florida, not only is Biden polling better than Clinton was, but Biden has always had a larger RCP average than Trump, without the lines criss-crossing they way they were four years ago. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html vs. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html (+3.2 for Clinton vs. +3.7 for Biden, but more key is that undecided voters are a lot lower in 2020)

Edit two Get out and vote! The polling doesn’t mean squat if people don’t mail in their vote, vote early (I have already cast my vote, and yes it was for Biden), or put on a mask and go to the polls November 3.

[caulixtla 2,170]

15 minutes ago, gabeoz said:

[Trump will get] AZ and maybe Florida. Even if he loses both of those states, he would still win.

The thing about Arizona is that it has been getting a lot more liberal, with the Latin population growing and getting more politically motivated there. It’s an echo of what happened with neighboring California in the first 2000s decade, where Latinos realized the Republicans were passing laws to attack them, and stated voting solid blue to counteract the Republican attack. Passing abominations like Proposition 187 or locking children in cages, separated from their parents, tends to do that to people.

Heck, even in central Mexico Latin@ people who are thousands of miles away from California still remember Proposition 187, and made a vow to never vote Republican decades later. In 2012, AZ was +9 Romney. In 2016, it was only +3.5 Trump. Here in 2020, Arizona has a big chance of flipping Blue.

 

[SevenWonder 4,755]

55 minutes ago, Admin said:

Did Hillary have a sizeable lead over Trump in the polls or was it as close as the election results were?

Biden has a larger lead both nationally (though not by much) and in the four or five key swing states (by a lot) than Hillary did. Furthermore, Biden is MUCH more likable than Hillary was.

And one more point - and this is key - there are FAR less undecided voters. So that means the polls have are going to that much more reliable. 

[Eighteen 5,430]

4 hours ago, Nino said:

I was one of those people and look at how much good it did  

same. taught me to keep my trap shut until the results are in 

[Lucas 31,294]

Such polls shouldn't even exist. People see it and think "ok he'll win I don't need to go vote" when it might not be the case. Don't take anything for granted please, we all thought Hillary would win 2016

[Werewoof 2,489]

4 hours ago, Dukttapetoo said:

Same af. I even went to a bar with some friends to watch the results. Smashcut to me around 1am throwing back glasses of vodka, bawling my eyes out on the floor.

This broke my heart retroactively oh my

gosh

[Bottom 1,842]

Biden landslide incoming, he has the old pensioners on board with him this time, he has it in the bag

[gabeoz 7,915]

10 hours ago, caulixtla said:

The thing about Arizona is that it has been getting a lot more liberal, with the Latin population growing and getting more politically motivated there. It’s an echo of what happened with neighboring California in the first 2000s decade, where Latinos realized the Republicans were passing laws to attack them, and stated voting solid blue to counteract the Republican attack. Passing abominations like Proposition 187 or locking children in cages, separated from their parents, tends to do that to people.

Heck, even in central Mexico Latin@ people who are thousands of miles away from California still remember Proposition 187, and made a vow to never vote Republican decades later. In 2012, AZ was +9 Romney. In 2016, it was only +3.5 Trump. Here in 2020, Arizona has a big chance of flipping Blue.

 

Oh, I dont doubt that it will go blue, with the latin population growing rapidly across the border states, I fully expect AZ and Texas to turn blue. I just think it's gonna be hard this election but still possible for AZ, but I definitely expect it to flip in 2024.

I just dont know how republicans still cant grasp the fact that passing laws targetting minority groups like blacks, latinos, etc is why they vote almost entirely democrat. 

[djBuffoon 12,239]

Definitely encouraging, and I predict that Biden will win in a landslide. BUT I will not put it past Trump and this corrupt administration to try anything and everything to influence electors in the swing states, particularly Florida.

Needless to say, but I'll say it anyway, it is crucial that everyone (even those who don't care for Biden) vote and run up the score. The wider margin between the candidates, the less room Trump has to credibly whine about nonexistent voter fraud.

[jacs vs looser 5,130]

12 hours ago, ItWasntLaauv said:

Edit: Please let me clarify that I don’t know if Biden will win or not, this is just a morale boost for myself. I need something to think optimistically about.

There's this historian called Allan Litchman who developed a method to predict the winner in US presidential elections, and he's calling a win for Biden.

His method has successfully predicted the outcome of the general elections since he created it with the exception of Al Gore losing because he predicted the popular vote only, but he's corrected it since and even predicted Hilary would loose when all polls were favoring her. Hope this also helps you ease your mind a little 

[AndyDWUW 3,971]

Literally a potato could hold this record.

 

Trump ****ed up coronavirus so bad, that even if I was running, I’d poll at this record level.

 

Imagine if Biden actually promised something to people, rather than YELL every chance he gets that he won’t provide us healthcare during a pandemic, or scream he wants to raise the military budget and the police budget. Or YELL at the left that he beat the socialist as he drags the democratic party further right and kissing the ass of the John Kasich’s of the world.

 

Voting Green Party here if you can’t tell 😗. So done w democrats and their hypocrisy and HATE for the left. They are not the solution to the fight against Republicans. They are republican lites.

[27monster27 15,924]

REMEMBER:

Regardless of how good it says Biden is doing, STILL WORK VERY HARD TO VOTE OUT TRUMP! Last time we lost because we stopped trying as much after we saw the statistics, but now we CANNOT lower the pressure and momentum we have.

[shane_c 480]

tbh this election almost doesn't matter. It would if Biden would replace Ginsburg. But now conservatives have a 6-3 lock on the supreme court (and what rights you have) for decades. 2016 was the election that really mattered.

[gabeoz 7,915]

6 minutes ago, shane_c said:

tbh this election almost doesn't matter. It would if Biden would replace Ginsburg. But now conservatives have a 6-3 lock on the supreme court (and what rights you have) for decades. 2016 was the election that really mattered.

If Biden wins and we get a democratic senate majority, it's a big possibility we will see an expansion of the Supreme Court, the silence from the Biden camp on whether or not he will is very telling.

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

12 hours ago, Admin said:

Did Hillary have a sizeable lead over Trump in the polls or was it as close as the election results were?

No, she never had a lead in the double digits, and Biden is leading nationally by 10 points taking all the polls in aggregate which is the way to do it.

Basically, it was much much closer in 2016. In fact, if polling is off as much this year as it was in 2016 then Biden would still win because in 2016 it was within the margin of error (in swing states, polls got the national vote right as Hillary won it by 3 points), but not now.

12 hours ago, gabeoz said:

She did have the same sizable lead nationally at this point in the race, but Biden is polling better than Trump in the swing states with better enthusiasm(he also has better appeal among every demographic) 

This is fake news. Her lead was never this large nationally ever taken at the aggregate, and the swing states were much closer than they are now. Most swing states were polling within a few points of each other, and Hillary only had about a 4 point national lead average at this point.

Meanwhile, Biden has an average 10 (!) point lead nationally taking all the polls in aggregate on Real Clear Politics AND FiveThirtyEight.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

11 hours ago, SevenWonder said:

Biden has a larger lead both nationally (though not by much) and in the four or five key swing states (by a lot) than Hillary did. Furthermore, Biden is MUCH more likable than Hillary was.

And one more point - and this is key - there are FAR less undecided voters. So that means the polls have are going to that much more reliable. 

Biden actually has a pretty sizeable lead nationally, not "not by much".

But you're right in the other aspects.

Also, Hillary never polled higher than the mid-40s in polls and Biden has been polling at or even above 50%.

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None of this is to say Biden has it in the bag. There's still a few weeks to go and Trump will try all he can to steal the election.

It's gotta be a landslide to make it that much harder to try.