JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 I made my predictions (relying on a mix of intuition, data, recent news developments, and a smidge of what everyone else was saying) Now it's time to see how I did! Some of the results are available now, but others won't become available for about a week. Also: I will be counting anything within two (2) percentage points as a correct % prediction, and will be counting anytime I get the winning % right even if I got the losing %(s) wrong. Will update and bump when new results become available. New York District 2 Republican Primary Predicted Winner: Gabarino (60%) District 9 Democratic Primary Predicted Winner: Clarke (45%) District 11 Republican Primary Predicted Winner: Malliotakis (70%) Actual Winner: Malliotakis (70%) Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes Correctly Predicted %? Yes District 14 Democratic Primary Predicted Winner: Ocasio-Cortez (60-65%) Actual Winner: Ocasio-Cortez (72%) Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes Correctly Predicted %? No District 15 Democratic Primary Predicted Winner: Ritchie Torres (38%) District 16 Democratic Primary Predicted Winner: Bowman (53%) Actual Winner: Bowman (60%) Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes Correctly Predicted %? No Kentucky Kentucky Senate (Dem) Predicted Winner: McGrath (48%) Actual Winner: McGrath (45%) Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes Correctly Predicted %? Close, but No Correctly Predicted Winner: 4/4 Correctly Predicted %: 1/4 Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NathanC 938 Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 What are your predictions for McGrath and McConnell? I care more about this than the presidential election. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 24, 2020 Author Share Posted June 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, NathanC said: What are your predictions for McGrath and McConnell? I care more about this than the presidential election. We don't even know if she's the nominee yet I will tell you that things are much, much closer than she would like against Booker given that not all of the Lexington-Fayette metro has yet reported My prediction remains the same regardless of who the Dem nominee is: Republican Hold Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yxilon 5,248 Posted June 24, 2020 Share Posted June 24, 2020 I thought this was about music charts Everything could be everything (it could mean anything) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 26, 2020 Author Share Posted June 26, 2020 @POP2 @MISTER GEEMATICA @NathanC @frederiickx @StarstruckIllusion @Lion Heart @FudgeyBear @Buddy Spoiler Kentucky Update: Charles Booker and Amy McGrath are about even in the results right now. Booker's huge margins in Fayette County and Jefferson County, high population and urban-majority areas of the state are helping him, but McGrath has so far been declared the winner in each of the precincts that have declared an official one according to the Washington Post (vote counts differ between sources, but Booker leads across-the-board). By Tuesday the results should be in focus. New York Update: I didn't cover it, but Rep. Carolyn Maloney is in serious danger of losing her seat to her 2018 challenger, Suraj Patel. Patel's campaign site identifies him as a "progressive Obama-Democrat" (take from that what you will) and the centerpiece of his campaign is support for Bernie Sanders' single-payer healthcare plan. That race has not been called yet. New York Update 2: Engel is still not conceding defeat in his race, but I'm confident in calling it for Bowman in a blowout. In a victory post on social media Bowman said his message resonated in every corner of the district New York Update 3: Republican Chris Jacobs' team is celebrating his election to Congress in the conservative 27th District, previously represented by Rep. Chris Collins who left Congress due to legal troubles. Jacobs simultaneously won his party's primary to contest the seat in November for a full term. Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,132 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 C'mon, McGrath She has the resources to end Mitch Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
POP2 4,206 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Such a nail biter! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SineFromHell 160 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 I voted for AOC! I live in district 14 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy 5,686 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 2 hours ago, PartySick said: C'mon, McGrath She has the resources to end Mitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,132 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Buddy said: If it makes you feel any better, my Floridian opinion on the Kentucky primary election is irrelevant Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy 5,686 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, PartySick said: If it makes you feel any better, my Floridian opinion on the Kentucky primary election is irrelevant Good I don't want any of y'all voting for someone who calls themself a "Trump Democrat" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarstruckIllusion 53,580 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, Buddy said: Good I don't want any of y'all voting for someone who calls themself a "Trump Democrat" The way she’s probably a fall guy for Mitch. What Democrat is dumb enough to be like “I stan Trump...” well this is one of many reasons why she’s currently tanking... AOC, Mondaire and Bowman tho... whew chile progressives made some points 😋😋 The Bernieprint <3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 27, 2020 Author Share Posted June 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, StarstruckIllusion said: well this is one of many reasons why she’s currently tanking I wouldn’t say she’s tanking It is certainly too close for comfort at this point. Regardless of who wins, a large portion of the base is going to be frustrated and even angry. It doesn’t look like either one is going to crack 45% let alone >50%. There’s a bunch of low-profile candidates running so whoever wins will probably be able to unveil a list of endorsements from at least some of them. to @PartySick point I do think McGrath gives Kentucky Democrats the best chance of beating McConnell (medicate-for-all, green energy, marijuana legalization*in Kentucky?), but as I continue to say, the race is really a long-shot for any Democrat. Kentucky only allows CBD oil, not even full medical marijuana, so I’m not sure how that’s going to play. McGrath won’t commit to legalizing it recreationally, but it s front and center on Booker’s campaign “issues” page. Disclaimer: I am 17 and I’m not a political science expert (yet) so plz don’t be mad if I get stuff wrong Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,132 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, JRCF29 said: I do think McGrath gives Kentucky Democrats the best chance of beating McConnell (medicate-for-all, green energy, marijuana legalization*in Kentucky?) Yeah, the only thing I heard about him was that he was progressive. Considering the goal is to #DitchMitch, I'd say a middle ground veteran is the better option I'd rather have a chance at a functional life boat than decide to go down with the ship because the life boats aren't up to my standards Let's run progressives against centrists, not against conservatives, in red states Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted June 27, 2020 Author Share Posted June 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, PartySick said: Let's run progressives against centrists, not against conservatives, in red states I mean, you’ve just described the Booker/McGrath race but I know what you mean quite frankly it’s best to run progressives (from a progressive point of view, that is) in reliably Democratic House districts (NY-16, for example) where voters are likely to vote for whoever is on that party line in the election. I would advise progressives against running an Ocasio-Cortez in a battleground district like, say, NY-2 Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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