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politics

2020 US Election Polls

Brainiac
10 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

Why can't Bernie Bros talk without lying? FiveThirtyEight gives Sanders a 29% likelihood of winning Iowa and Biden a 25% chance. That's twice as likely? You guys are seriously deluded. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

Don't call me a Bernie Bro, thanks.

https://electionbettingodds.com/Iowa2020.html

And you were saying?

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Sanju

@PoshLifeCalling people Bernie bros pretty much cancels whatever you say after tbh.

Even though your points are valid in some manner, and encouraged to have a healthy argument with the other side, the way you approach it pretty much ends the argument as you come off pretty mysogynistic to actual women voters, and PoC who support Bernie. 

I stand by this the other way around too, but I don't really see much people here categorizing other candidates voters in such a pointless and meaningless smear. :shrug:

 

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lego

 

 

 

 

 
plus:
 
 

 

Edited by lego
racist ppl really be like “so just because I’m a racist that makes me racist ??? wow”
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derpmonster

Interesting that CNN is giving him any time of the day honestly

Check out iTunes data & graphs at CHARTPOP.live

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PoshLife

Another day, another example of Bernie Bros cherry-picking data.

Bernie Sanders is most assuredly not "climbing everywhere."

In Nevada - the third state to vote in our primary - his 19% polling average is statistically unchanged from his 18% average in August. (Source)

In South Carolina - the fourth state to vote - his paltry 15% polling average is the same as it's always been. (Source)

Those are polling averages. Every single poll of those states - the ones you like, and the ones you don't - are baked in. No cherry-picking, just actual trendlines.

It's entirely possible he wins in both Iowa (where he'll do very well because it's a white caucus state) and New Hampshire (where he'll do well because he basically has the home-state advantage). I'd even argue that his "surge" in New Hampshire is actually a regression towards the mean after various other candidates, including Buttigieg and Biden, experienced their own surges there over the past few months. (Source)

And to the Twitter user who thinks winning Iowa means winning the nomination: ask Ted Cruz in 2016 or Rick Santorum in 2012 whether they won the nomination. Winning Iowa doesn't mean you'll win the nomination, because Iowa increasingly doesn't reflect the diversity of our party across the country. Nate Silver has written extensively that Biden is the one candidate best-positioned to win the nomination even if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire because of his strong support in Nevada, South Carolina, and most of the Super Tuesday states.

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lego
1 minute ago, derpmonster said:

Interesting that CNN is giving him any time of the day honestly

 

Some say this guy didn’t even like Bernie, but something changed. 

:pray:

racist ppl really be like “so just because I’m a racist that makes me racist ??? wow”

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lego
Just now, PoshLife said:

Another day, another example of Bernie Bros

 

 

Another day, another sexist, misogynistic post from poshlife. Time to report this for flamebait. 

racist ppl really be like “so just because I’m a racist that makes me racist ??? wow”
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derpmonster
6 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

Another day, another example of Bernie Bros cherry-picking data.

Bernie Sanders is most assuredly not "climbing everywhere."

It's literally a CNN article, not a Bernie supporter thing :ladyhaha:

Check out iTunes data & graphs at CHARTPOP.live
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derpmonster

The truth is Biden and Bernie are tied nationally and Bernie has been closing the little gap they had.

Check out iTunes data & graphs at CHARTPOP.live
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Democrats 2020

I believe that there's an uptick which would explain why Obama was weary of a Sanders win. Not quite sure if it's over a point or two nationally.

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PartySick
10 hours ago, Brainiac said:

Bernie Sanders: 25%

Elizabeth Warren: 15%

Goddammit :fail:

This binch had to go and play games, now she's 10 points behind.

Well, "feel the Bern" I guess. I'm not contributing a vote towards a Biden win :huntyga:

I'm dreaming of going somewhere else. Being human.
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PartySick
5 minutes ago, derpmonster said:

The truth is Biden and Bernie are tied nationally and Bernie has been closing the little gap they had.

If it's that close to being a two way race between Biden and Sanders, I know who I'd pick :laughga:

I'm dreaming of going somewhere else. Being human.
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Brainiac
16 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

In Nevada - the third state to vote in our primary - his 19% polling average is statistically unchanged from his 18% average in August. (Source)

In South Carolina - the fourth state to vote - his paltry 15% polling average is the same as it's always been. (Source)

There haven't been polls conducted in either of those states for several weeks now. I guarantee if you poll both of those states right now Bernie would be leading in Nevada and the gap would be much closer in SC. Heck, the last poll in Nevada taken directly from your source has them within a point of each other and that was almost 3 weeks ago.

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FATCAT

Exciting! They say that late surges close to the polling date are pretty normal for Iowa, and it's usually election day that defines these surges (like 08' with Obama).

If Bernie has both states by good margins he's got my vote when he gets to SC!

chilly waffle

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ode

Get off the pollercoaster!

And trust in MAMA:

 

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