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Shallow's Oscar Chances Are...


PunkTheFunk

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PunkTheFunk

Doing just fine :vegas: I'm sure you already knew that, but I have the receipts to back it up.

Yes gays: another day, another prediction thread. I wanted to see how past Best Original Song winners (since 2000) did at the Globes, Grammys, and the Critics Choice Awards -- in hopes that this can ease any doubts about Shallow's Oscar success.

Come, it's time to go into the simulation Excel table :vegas:

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...

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- 'No' highlighted in gray means the Oscar winning song was not even nominated for that award.
- Grammy is for Best Song Written for Visual Media.

*2002: "Lose Yourself" lost in Visual Media, but won in a rap category that year.
*2005: Another song from the movie (Hustle and Flow) was nominated instead, and lost. 

Key takeaways:

The Golden Globes are a fairly okay predictor for the Oscars if the Oscar winning song was also nominated (it was correct 8 times out of 11). If the Oscar winning song lost the Golden Globe, it always went on to win the Critics' Choice Award. In other words, winning the Critics' Choice Award is paramount. If Gaga wins it too (which I'm 99% sure she will), the Oscar is pretty much in the bag. If Gaga somehow loses it, I would be extremely concerned. Only one song has won the Golden Globe, but lost the Critics' Choice Award -- Sam Smith's "Writing's on the Wall" :triggered: No Oscar-nominated song has won both the Globe and the Critics Choice Award, but lost the Oscar, EVER. 

Also, there have been 4 songs since 2000 that swept all four awards (The Weary Kind, Skyfall, Glory, and City of Stars). Can Gaga do the same? :poot:

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zakariah

ugh I love you

TIHTY lost the oscar so that Shallow can win all 4 awards. I have planted the seed and I will watch the harvest. :vegas:

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PunkTheFunk
2 minutes ago, HermesGr said:

Can we do the same excel for the “best actress” category? 

 

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