Billboard prediction: Reputation 2M first week

[swakby 4,100]

Usually, when gearing up for a new Taylor Swift album release, Swift's Big Machine Label Group lowers expectations by initially suggesting that the albums will debut with about 750,000 units in the opening week, even though Swift's last three albums scanned over 1 million units in first-week sales. Speak Now sold 1.05 million in the week ending Oct. 31, 2010, Red scanned 1.21 million units in the week ending Oct. 28, 2012, and 1989, tallied 1.287 million units for the week ending  Nov. 2, 2014, according to Nielsen Music.

But this time around, industry sources tell Billboard, Big Machine is telling its accounts Reputation will see first-week sales action of 2 million units, more than Swift has done for any of previous albums. That's despite the fact that the U.S. music industry is far more dependent on streaming than sales than it was in 2014, with album sales down 18 percent so far this year while audio-on-demand streams -- the only streams that count toward the Billboard 200 -- are up 59 percent year to date. 

Big Machine's uncharacteristically lofty projections have set off a debate among the data analysts and sales teams at competing record labels over whether the Nashville label can come close to achieving that figure -- and how it would do so, even though the first singles off Reputation aren't performing as well as the first cuts off 1989.

http://www.billboard.com/articles/business/8030122/taylor-swift-reputation-2-million-album-sales-big-machine

 

[LetsGetHigh 52,683]

We steer away from god everyday 

[Supersonic 49,376]

Early indications are, Swift can still do it, too. Big Machine told the Washington Post that Reputation pre-orders hit 400,000 last Friday, and that total didn't even include a United Parcel Service (UPS) promotion. Sources say that iTunes alone accounted for half of that, or 200,000.

Some predict Target will hit 600,000 units in the first week for Reputation, while iTunes will reach 500,000 units. Others say they hear Walmart will sell 250,000 units, though some are skeptical and expect Walmart, Amazon and Best Buy and other physical retailers may do about 300,000 units combined.

With the full breadth of the Swift promotional campaign for Reputation now unfolding, UPS pre-orders notwithstanding, tallying up the the rest of the industry projections amounts to about 1.4 million units, better than first week sales of 1989, but short of Big Machine's big forecasts. Sources say Swift's distributor, Universal Music Group, will ship between 1.2 million and 1.5 million units of the CD, while vinyl not expected to be ready until sometime in December.

http://www.billboard.com/articles/business/8030122/taylor-swift-reputation-2-million-album-sales-big-machine

 

[Phlop 4,773]

When. Will. Our. Fave.

[Bambino 24,059]

the ****?

when will everybody's faves?

[Drin Lon 7,875]

Just like how Look was gonna sell 550k pure first week 

[Bio 23,538]

My advanced condolences to those 2 million people

[Lextyr97 18,957]

I'm so jealous of Swifties. Their fave never gets (immense) public backlash, always has enormous opening weeks... ugh 

[Drin Lon 7,875]

Yes if the album is on streaming platforms, otherwise it's a reach/

[swakby 4,100]

Many experts still argue the number since they believe Taylor could not move 2 million in the US alone. At this point, I'm not sure whether streaming will be of help or not. 

[FlopSlurper 34,336]

1 minute ago, Drin Lon said:

Yes if the album is on streaming platforms, otherwise it's a reach/

1989 opened with 1m+ sales without streaming  

[Chromatislaps 34,758]

sure joanne  

[Teal Ambition 47,805]

Omfg  Go TAYLOR 

Female domination incoming

[Drin Lon 7,875]

Just now, FlopSlurper said:

1989 opened with 1+ sales without streaming  

They say it's going to do 2M untis, which means counting SPS, and if it's true that Repootation won't be on streaming services, than 2M is a reach

[gagagoogoose 30,952]

My question to the GP: