Edit 7th January 2026: Sources from the New York Times, National Interest, ABC News on page 3 that confirm that such a proposal was indeed made. Page 3:
According to rumors, Trump and Putin did not discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine during their meeting in Alaska, but rather a division of states and oil fields. (And perhaps also a part of Poland or Lithuania?) According to this, Trump would allow Putin to take Ukraine, while Putin would refrain from supplying Venezuela with long-range weapons and Trump would be allowed the invasion of Venezuela in order to seize and develop oil fields there. It would be less of a land invasion and more of a water zone invasion.
This is known as the Venezuela theory and is supported by reputable philosophers such as Richard David Precht, among others.
The following points support the theory:
- A few weeks after the Alaska meeting, Putin attacked government buildings in Kiev for the first time in three years. It was speculated that the Biden administration approved the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the sense that the US would not send ground and air forces, but that Biden drew a red line that government buildings would not be attacked, which Putin adhered to. This is no longer the case after the Alaska meeting.
- For the first time, Putin sent drones to Poland, a NATO country, which even flew over Warsaw and penetrated deep into the country, far from the border. Trump then reacted “like a gawker” (who may even be cheering Putin on?). It is speculated that Putin got Trump's permission to do so.
- Trump sent the Navy to the waters of Venezuela and the Caribbean and is taking an activist approach there. Trump already proposed an invasion of Venezuela during his first term in office.
- Historically, it is common for major powers to divide the world among themselves.
- Trump allowed the Department of Defense to be alternatively also called Department of War as second name.
Arguments against the theory:
- The meeting in Alaska lasted only three hours. That is too short a time to seal such an important decision.
- Putin did not help his ally Armenia, which is very close to Russia, against the invasion by Azerbaijan so it is speculated that Putin would not help Venezuela either any way, and Trump would not need Russia's permission.
- An invasion of Venezuela would spark controversy that would have global effects
I was initially skeptical about this theory until I read about the Tonkin incident. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident )
In 1964, the US sent ships to Vietnam, initially only outside territorial waters in international passages, which is legal. But then the US accused Vietnam of firing on American ships, declared war on Vietnam, and invaded it. Vietnam was virtually destroyed and remains considerably poorer than China and South Korea to this day. It later emerged that Vietnam had never attacked the US ships first. Doesn't all this seem somehow familiar to us?