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I’ve been following the Grammy voting process for several years now, and I have been able to predict the nominees and winners almost down to 100% for the past two years. So, I decided to take a look at our current landscape for next years Grammy’s and Mayhems chances in the biggest award: ALBUM OF THE YEAR: To put it briefly: Mayhem is Gaga's album with the strongest chance of winning AOTY This is the current state in my opinion: - Front runner: GNX Kendrick Lamar - Runner Up: Mayhem Lady Gaga While I believe Kendrick Lamar is the frontrunner, his album was released very early in the eligibility period. Since then, at least three major hip-hop artists—Drake, Tyler The Creator, and Playboi Carti—have dropped albums. If even one or two of them get nominated, the hip-hop vote will start to split among several contenders. This kind of vote-splitting already happened at this year’s Grammys, where 50% of the AOTY nominees came from pop: Billie Eilish, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, and Charli XCX. As a result, Beyoncé had better odds of winning. The same could happen this time, but with hip-hop instead. That said, even if hip-hop voters consolidate behind Kendrick, history has shown that pop (or other genres) can still win over rap-heavy competition—especially against Kendrick himself. In 2016, “To Pimp a Butterfly” lost AOTY to Taylor Swift’s “1989”, despite being a critical favorite, and that was in a field of only five nominees (meaning the hip-hop votes were consolidated on Kendrick). Then, in 2018, “DAMN”, Jay-Z’s “4:44”, and Cardi B’s “Invasion of Privacy” were all nominated, yet Kacey Musgraves “Golden Hour” took home the award. That year proved that a three-way hip-hop split can significantly weaken rap’s chances of winning. Even though there are still five months left in the eligibility period, it’s safe to expect at least one more hip-hop album to make it into the AOTY race alongside Kendrick. If it ends up being Drake’s album, his ongoing feud with Kendrick could further divide the rap vote, making it even harder for a hip-hop album to secure a win. Also, an interesting dynamic to consider is that Kendrick already won big this year with his song “Not Like Us” from his competing album “GNX”. Grammy voters might feel they’ve already awarded him enough for this body of work, which could impact his chances in the AOTY race. Gaga could suffer from a similar situation, as “Die With A Smile” already won a Grammy, but this would be to a lesser extent as “DWAS” did not win any general field grammy. This phenomenon could push voters to look elsewhere for their AOTY pick. On the other hand, there aren’t many strong pop albums in contention. The Weeknd might take some votes in the pop category, but historically, Grammy voters tend to consider him in R&B as well, which weakens his standing in the pop race. Plus, SZA is a strong competitor in R&B, further dividing that vote, and she qualifies with “SOS Deluxe LANA”. The only real threats to Gaga from the pop side are potential late releases, but even most of them will have to put up a fight against “Mayhem”. Chappell Roan has already confirmed that her album is still a long way off, so she’s out of the equation for now. Tate McRae will likely appear in the pop categories, but her album isn’t strong enough to break into the AOTY race. Lizzo is reportedly working on an album, but given the underwhelming performance of her last two singles, it’s unlikely to make a major impact. The artists who could shake things up are Harry Styles—IF he releases, his Grammy track record, commercial dominance, and industry support could make him a serious contender. Another potential spoiler for Gaga is Ed Sheeran, who has commented on his upcoming album “Play”. Depending on its release timing, it could be a serious contender too. Meanwhile, Gaga has the advantage of high-profile performances at Coachella, Copacabana, and several major global shows in May—closer to the end of the eligibility period (She should still campaign in late November regardless though). That recency bias will work in her favor. Bad Bunny will almost certainly get a nomination, but the Grammys aren’t giving the top award to a Latin artist. If he didn’t win with “Un Verano Sin Ti”, it’s unlikely he will now. What could give “Mayhem” an even stronger edge is that producers are already praising the album’s production quality. This could position it as a frontrunner for Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical, a category that often serves as a precursor to AOTY. In the sane vein, in terms of critical reception, “Mayhem” is firmly in the high tier among potential nominees. It’s just three points shy of Kendrick's album (87) and one point shy of Tyler’s Chromakopia (85), with an impressive 11-point lead over The Weeknd (73). Bad Bunny's album holds the highest score at 95, but it has only a quarter of the reviews compared to the rest of albums mentioned, which could indicate there’s not a lot of critics checking Bad Bunny’s album out. Ultimately, If no other massive pop artist emerges by late August who is able to challenge Gaga, then pop voters—the largest voting block—would likely rally behind Gaga. And if the hip-hop vote gets split… Mayhem for AOTY is not impossible. On another note, Gaga also has a real shot in several other categories, either because she is a strong contender, or because no major competition has appeared six and a half months into the eligibility period: Best Pop Dance Recording for "Abracadabra" Best Pop Solo Performance for "Disease" or "Happy Mistakes" Best Pop Vocal Album for Mayhem Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album for Harlequin Unfortunately, Best Music Video for Abracadabra seems unlikely as of now. Usually this category looks for a big production or video with a political/social commentary. Although Gaga did previously won with Bad Romance, a similar dance hefty video. While other potential contenders could appear, these categories seem open for Gaga, especially considering the lack of strong competition so far.