Canada Housing Bubble Continues To Deflate As Forecasts Revised Lower Again

[Economy 53,198]

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/canadian-housing-sales-fall-5-2026-td

 

TD Bank, Canadas 2nd largest bank has joined the ranks of economists and institutions revising forecasts lower for sales and prices yet again as rising rates further delay a bottom/recovery

 

2026 is now forecast for sales to fall another 5% from already depressed numbers and prices to remain flat which means another slight drop in real value adjusted for inflation

 

Prices are down 20% to 30% (more if adjusted for inflation) in the most expensive large cities from the 2022 peak. Despite this there is are no threats to Financial System or banking stability. Delinquencies are up a bit but remain relatively low by international standards or compared to the United States.

 

Stress tests, tight lending standards and banking capital reserve requirements are made such that Canadas financial system is supposed to whether severe worst case scenario crashes without banking failures. So far the regulations are proving effective.

Edited Thursday at 12:36 AM by Economy

[Economy 53,198]

I just love seeing my house drop in value steadily 

 

Fr tho prices need to keep falling for the sake of society. But I have a feeling they wont drop much further. Probably just plateau for a few years. Construction is already way down in Ontario and BC and this could lead to a renewed shortage in a few years. 

[Obobo 4,058]

Maybe I can finally afford one of those shoebox condos 

[monstertoronto 12,034]

I remember like a decade ago that everyone was saying real estate was the safest investment it was a bouncing ball going up the stairs; it will go up and down and ultimately overall keep climbing. It’s strange to see us losing so many gains for so long. At least real estate is an investment you can live in. Houses in my neighborhood  definitely went way up and then went down but has lately just stayed slightly above the range  I bought it for. Good thing I have no interest in moving so I’ll just live here for a long time. Hopefully over many years in the future it will go back up in time to sell eventually, but worst case scenario I just have a home to live in forever. 

[27monster27 16,213]

When will the US?

[Economy 53,198]

16 hours ago, monstertoronto said:

I remember like a decade ago that everyone was saying real estate was the safest investment it was a bouncing ball going up the stairs; it will go up and down and ultimately overall keep climbing. It’s strange to see us losing so many gains for so long. At least real estate is an investment you can live in. Houses in my neighborhood  definitely went way up and then went down but has lately just stayed slightly above the range  I bought it for. Good thing I have no interest in moving so I’ll just live here for a long time. Hopefully over many years in the future it will go back up in time to sell eventually, but worst case scenario I just have a home to live in forever. 

In my case I dont plan to move either anytime soon. So for me the part i hate about falling prices isnt that im loosing equity the part I hate is that my mortgage could have been lower and more affordable (or I could have afforded a better house if I waited)

Edited Thursday at 05:58 PM by Economy

[monstertoronto 12,034]

5 hours ago, Economy said:

In my case I dont plan to move either anytime soon. So for me the part i hate about falling prices isnt that im loosing equity the part I hate is that my mortgage could have been lower and more affordable (or I could have afforded a better house if I waited)

I feel the same way. I feel Ike if I had waited just a bit longer I could have bought my house with almost no mortgage or I could have bought a bigger, detached house. But at the same time, I sold my loft to afford my house, and if I had sold in a down market I most likely would have sold it for less than I got. If you buy and sell in the same market it’s mostly a wash. If somehow you could know to sell when the market is high and be aware of exactly how long you need to wait for the market to drop so you can buy low, every one would do it. But then there’s also the interim costs of rent and storage in the interim. No one can really “play the market”. 

[Economy 53,198]

17 minutes ago, monstertoronto said:

I feel the same way. I feel Ike if I had waited just a bit longer I could have bought my house with almost no mortgage or I could have bought a bigger, detached house. But at the same time, I sold my loft to afford my house, and if I had sold in a down market I most likely would have sold it for less than I got. If you buy and sell in the same market it’s mostly a wash. If somehow you could know to sell when the market is high and be aware of exactly how long you need to wait for the market to drop so you can buy low, every one would do it. But then there’s also the interim costs of rent and storage in the interim. No one can really “play the market”. 

Generally if you are upgrading/upsizing a house its worth it in a downmarket. If you are downsizing, then a hot market is best

 

I was a first time home buyer so there was 0 benefit to a hotter market. I overpayed plain and simple. But i had reasons to move when i did and I couldnt have guessed certain outcomes (not only in the housing market but also in personal life circumstances). I could have waited a little longer but its ok cant change it now

 

I bought in 2025 so its not like i bought right at the peak. I just didnt buy it at the bottom either