2026 Midterm Discussions (Polls, updates, and more)

[RAMROD 118,453]

I have voted early on Friday. Ossoff & Keisha all the way. 

[LateToCult 42,354]

18 minutes ago, PartySick said:

@Morphine Prince @Bronco @LateToCult please tell me y'all have seen that guy ask Abdul if he'd disavow the Muslim Brotherhood  

Tommy is gonna be waking up in a cold sweat thinking about that interaction for the rest of his life

I saw it. Did you see the tweet he made about Rump being able to pronounce Abdul just fine when he’s begging Qatari’s for money? 

[Bronco 29,117]

34 minutes ago, PartySick said:

@Morphine Prince @Bronco @LateToCult please tell me y'all have seen that guy ask Abdul if he'd disavow the Muslim Brotherhood  

Tommy is gonna be waking up in a cold sweat thinking about that interaction for the rest of his life

Also appears to have been doxed as a Republican plant who works for Josh Hawley

[PartySick 175,747]

1 hour ago, LateToCult said:

I saw it. Did you see the tweet he made about Rump being able to pronounce Abdul just fine when he’s begging Qatari’s for money? 

I can't wait to have that petty, mean mf'r in the senate

[Morphine Prince 110,223]

1 hour ago, PartySick said:

@Morphine Prince @Bronco @LateToCult please tell me y'all have seen that guy ask Abdul if he'd disavow the Muslim Brotherhood  

Tommy is gonna be waking up in a cold sweat thinking about that interaction for the rest of his life

Yes. Abdul is a masterclass in how to handle these idiots. 

[doraemon 1,164]

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

 

 

[Bronco 29,117]

Right I'm gonna risk it. Having looked over the polling. 

I'm confident Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina & Texas are flipping this year. Although of the 4, Texas is my "weakest chance" for the Dems because I don't trust Musk et al to not cheat. 

My average/as expected night for the Dems is these 4 pickups plus defenses in MN/MI.

Controversial opinion for some - I don't expect any republican pick ups unless the polls have ****ed it big time.

My tossups are NE/IA/KS/SC - 
Nebraska has the GOP leading in polls, but it's within MOE lead and there is still a % of undecided voters that is greater than that lead in the polls. Current momentum means on a very good night, Nebraska elects the independent. 
Iowa has the lead switching between polls (latest is a 2% R lead with an R pollster, previous was a 1% Dem lead with a neutral pollster). Again, number of undecideds still outnumbers the lead. This one is on a lot of politico's radars. I think it's flippable given the pain the rural farming communities are feeling atm and Turek is playing to it big time.
Kansas like Texas, if its ever going to happen its this year. It's a neck & neck race. Latest 2 polls were a R pollster who conducted it twice over 2 weeks, it was a 1% point lead which changed between R/D from poll to poll with 2% undecided. This is very good night territory. 
South Carolina, Graham has maintained a lead since the primary but it has shrunk with each poll even with the Republican pollsters. And the lead is in most polls smaller than the undecided block. She's a ****ing idiot as well. I think bad candidate syndrome may cost this race - again this is good night territory. 

@PartySick like you I hope Florida flips, I will be watching it on the night. But right now I'm not convinced. 

Good night for the Dems is picking up Iowa. 
Great night for the Dems is picking up Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina and NC goes for the Indepdent. 
The Best night is Dems picking up Florida on top of the rest.

And I hear you ask, but Bronco, what about Maine? 
Collins is a witch and the polls consistently **** us on her races. The only way she leaves Congress is in a box at this point. I refuse to have hope she is capable of losing. 

[Bronco 29,117]

Also - absolutely wild night territory - watch South Dakota if we're seeing a blue tsunami in Senate & House races prior to this declaring. The polls are behaving weirdly there, very inconsistent. If the night is going well, this is one to watch for the small chance that polling eraticism is an upset especially as we're still seeing double digit undecided % in October polls. 

[PartySick 175,747]

25 minutes ago, Bronco said:

Right I'm gonna risk it. Having looked over the polling. 

I'm confident Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina & Texas are flipping this year. Although of the 4, Texas is my "weakest chance" for the Dems because I don't trust Musk et al to not cheat. 

My average/as expected night for the Dems is these 4 pickups plus defenses in MN/MI.

Controversial opinion for some - I don't expect any republican pick ups unless the polls have ****ed it big time.

My tossups are NE/IA/KS/SC - 
Nebraska has the GOP leading in polls, but it's within MOE lead and there is still a % of undecided voters that is greater than that lead in the polls. Current momentum means on a very good night, Nebraska elects the independent. 
Iowa has the lead switching between polls (latest is a 2% R lead with an R pollster, previous was a 1% Dem lead with a neutral pollster). Again, number of undecideds still outnumbers the lead. This one is on a lot of politico's radars. I think it's flippable given the pain the rural farming communities are feeling atm and Turek is playing to it big time.
Kansas like Texas, if its ever going to happen its this year. It's a neck & neck race. Latest 2 polls were a R pollster who conducted it twice over 2 weeks, it was a 1% point lead which changed between R/D from poll to poll with 2% undecided. This is very good night territory. 
South Carolina, Graham has maintained a lead since the primary but it has shrunk with each poll even with the Republican pollsters. And the lead is in most polls smaller than the undecided block. She's a ****ing idiot as well. I think bad candidate syndrome may cost this race - again this is good night territory. 

@PartySick like you I hope Florida flips, I will be watching it on the night. But right now I'm not convinced. 

Good night for the Dems is picking up Iowa. 
Great night for the Dems is picking up Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina and NC goes for the Indepdent. 
The Best night is Dems picking up Florida on top of the rest.

And I hear you ask, but Bronco, what about Maine? 
Collins is a witch and the polls consistently **** us on her races. The only way she leaves Congress is in a box at this point. I refuse to have hope she is capable of losing. 

And when this happens, then what? 

 

I agree with your take except I think we get Maine  I'm not sure Ol' Shaky is gonna make it out of a hole as deep as the one Trump has dug for her and every Republican.

Florida's numbers have been a bit disappointing so far but early in-person voting is just starting today so I'm hoping Dems have just collectively decided they don't trust mail in ballots while Trump and DeSantis are in office.

I made the same choice

It's frustrating though 'cause a lot of FL Republicans say they like Nixon but they won't vote for her and they dislike the DeSantis appointed empty suit but that's their girl 'cause she has an R next to her name  

If Angie doesn't break through, or at least Jolly, this state is well and truly broken and lost forever  

[PartySick 175,747]

GODDAMMIT ANGIE WAS IN MY TOWN AND I MISSED IT?!  

F*cking TikTok always showing me sh*t late omg I'm so angry

[PartySick 175,747]

Just now, PartySick said:

GODDAMMIT ANGIE WAS IN MY TOWN AND I MISSED IT?!  

F*cking TikTok always showing me sh*t late omg I'm so angry

AND SHE WAS WITH BERNIE F*CKING SANDERS F*CK

[Bronco 29,117]

3 minutes ago, PartySick said:

I agree with your take except I think we get Maine  I'm not sure Ol' Shaky is gonna make it out of a hole as deep as the one Trump has dug for her and every Republican.

I just see 2020 every time I look at her race after the Kavanaugh confirmation.
Consistently behind by 5% in every poll from July 2020. Even with ranked choice prompts included. 

And then on the day, she won with an 8% lead and 1st round majority win over Gideon who massively underperformed her polling. Despite it being the most expensive race in state history. And it was the only 2020 state who elected a senator from the opposite party to how it voted in the presidential race so she didn't even get dragged up or down by Trump.

That woman has made deals with Cthullu. She is the devil.

[Cody James 1,559]

7 minutes ago, PartySick said:

And when this happens, then what? 

 

I agree with your take except I think we get Maine  I'm not sure Ol' Shaky is gonna make it out of a hole as deep as the one Trump has dug for her and every Republican.

Florida's numbers have been a bit disappointing so far but early in-person voting is just starting today so I'm hoping Dems have just collectively decided they don't trust mail in ballots while Trump and DeSantis are in office.

I made the same choice

It's frustrating though 'cause a lot of FL Republicans say they like Nixon but they won't vote for her and they dislike the DeSantis appointed empty suit but that's their girl 'cause she has an R next to her name  

If Angie doesn't break through, or at least Jolly, this state is well and truly broken and lost forever  

Every time I log into Facebook I see these posts saying Dems are far behind in Florida (I mean I know there is propaganda on FB for sure and that polling being posted about can also be skewed). I really hope we can pull through with at least one of the two major races. The best argument I feel Dems have is “Republicans have been in major offices for several terms now, is life really better than before” but is it enough to swing voters especially independents? I certainly hope so.

[Bronco 29,117]

10 minutes ago, PartySick said:

 

Also 

I'll believe Collins loses Maine before I believe Montana flips thanks to Bankhead spoiling. 

[Bronco 29,117]

5 minutes ago, Cody James said:

Every time I log into Facebook I see these posts saying Dems are far behind in Florida (I mean I know there is propaganda on FB for sure and that polling being posted about can also be skewed). I really hope we can pull through with at least one of the two major races. The best argument I feel Dems have is “Republicans have been in major offices for several terms now, is life really better than before” but is it enough to swing voters especially independents? I certainly hope so.

Watching a voter trend analysist look at Florida atm (thanks @LateToCult for the recommendation) 
@PartySick also relevant for you

Some of the counties have lower than predicted turnout so far based on previous cycles (Duval and Broward). But others are over performing like Palm Beach. And these are being led by the Democratic registered voters atm. 
Republicans are turning out in line with previous cycles. 

In-person voting starts today so these numbers may start changing.