So now that we know, lets talk chances

[Ladle Ghoulash 30,639]

7 hours ago, Bronco said:

AOTY is probably going to Bad Bunny. The Grammys have a history of making political points.

The Dixie Chicks winning with Taking the Long Way in 06 after their mass cancellation for opposing the Iraq War. 

Beyoncè & Cowboy Carter being her first big nom win was 100% political on the Grammys part. 

Given the current climate, a Bad Bunny win (which would be deserved it sa great album) would fit with their prior form of making subtle political stands. 

Somewhat off-topic, but: in this context, the fact that TPAB lost to 1989 is even crazier lmao 

Edited November 8 by Ladle Ghoulash

[Virgin Ryan 1,468]

Please God let her sweep all major categories this year like Billie did with WWSWDWG

[bornthisway135 644]

I’m trying not to be biased cuz of course I want our Kween to win. Yass Gaga! but I really think she is going to win AOTY. Sabrina has no chance because of how cliché her album’s sound has. TBH. It’s Short n Sweet part deux. Loved SWAG, but c’mon… it’s not gonna win. Just not strong enough. The Clips/Pusha T/Malice album was great. The content is there, but the production was too minimal. Especially when compared to Kendrick Lamar’s album. GNX is what Mayhem is going to be up against. GNX is the hip hop cousin to Bad Bunny’s album. I know it seems Bad Bunny win cuz of the state of the union and the superbowl. But that’s tabloid hype. It’s not gonna win album of the year either. Same with Leon Thomas. MUTT to me sounds like coffeehouse r&b. Not my vibe.
 

mayhem has the strongest chance of winning because of its production and mixing. Her vocals are so so clear and raw compared to most pop albums today. Mayhem uses real instruments and harmonies channels pays homage to so many old genres and easily peaks the general public’s interest. And the fact that she has an entirely different style of album up for a Grammy too! Harlequin is a perfect example of the level of talent Lady Gaga possesses. She deserves to win based on sheer talent alone. And I think the Grammys know it. Like, they waived a 4 minute timeslot during their airtime earlier this year. I think they foreshadowed who was gonna win when they did that. 

[ManMan 2,352]

20 hours ago, Blackout19 said:

you can call me crazy, but she will win at least 6

MANIFEST this to age like fine wine

 

[andy232000 12,599]

Btw, the demography report of the new class that was added to this year has been released by the Grammys 

https://documents.recordingacademy.com/NMC_25_Data_Report.pdf

aprox 3800+ members added. Only 76% of those actually are eligible for voting. that’s around 2,888+ voters (consistent with the 2,900 reported).

according to the ethnicity data, only 28% of those identify as Latino or Hispanic, so around 820 new Latino members. 
 

While invitations were indeed extended to all Latin Grammy voters, this report is usually the final tally of the new class. Plus the Grammy CEO did mention that “nearly 15k voting members selected the nominees” . Which is also somewhat consistent once adding the new class. So no, there isn’t a huge influx of Latin voters like everyone thought. The articles and press releases were just very vague at actually communicating that all Latin voters were OFFERED the chance to join, but based on this report, not everyone accepted or did so before the cut off date. Its very likely we will see more Latin voters join in the following years as more complete their registration process. 
 

Unless I am understanding something wrong, we are looking at 820-950 extra votes for Bad Bunny AT BEST. Not nearly as much as needed to even out the playing field. More so when you also take into consideration that 31% of the new class are white people (900 people aprox). They probably don’t speak Spanish so in the end the new class might cancel out its own Latin influx. 
 

I guess the real skyrocketing narrative Bad Bunny has is the political landscape. If I were him, that’s what I would capitalize on, cause looking at the Latino votes + the new class, it’s much MUCH less than what we thought. 

[StrawberryBlond 15,043]

My take: 

Album of the Year - Her highest chance ever. All year, its been between her or Kendrick. But Kendrick's hype was all over quickly and Gaga's kept going, put out TDD, done more live performances and cleaned up at the MTV awards, not to mention a highly talked about world tour. The other hip hop/RnB albums are totally going to divide voters all over the place for Kendrick, paving the way for Gaga. I think it's all finally going to pay off.

Best Pop Vocal Album - Probably going to win. It's the highest reviewed album there and the other albums just aren't on the same level. Sabrina also won last year and her new album isn't as well received, so Gaga will win.

Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album - Very low. It wasn't praised as high as other nominees or is as well-known. Competition is probably between Elton/Brandi and Laufey.

Record of the Year - Mid/high. Her big competition is Luther and possibly Wildflower although Billie doing so well with her last 2 albums will likely take her chances down a bit. The academy really like the song as evidenced by its multiple noms and an additional one for best remix however.

Song of the Year - See above.

Best Dance Pop Recording - Surprisingly high. This category usually isn't won by mainstream pop songs, the academy prefers something a bit more experimental here but looking at the competition, I don't think any of these songs are known or successful enough to win enough support and Abra stands head and shoulders above them.

Best Pop Solo Performance - Middling. It wasn't a hit and was so long ago now, so the odds aren't really in its favour. I think it'll be between Chappell and Lola for this one.

Overall, I predict her to take home 2 at the absolute least, perhaps 3 and 4 at the absolute most. But its always been hard for Gaga to take home any more than 3 awards tops in a night, she's always been someone who's gained her awards slowly but surely. But it'll be 7 years since she took home 3 awards and she's won 5 awards over 4 ceremonies since then, which makes for an amazing resume and stands her in good stead of a long overdue giving of the flowers.