So now that we know, lets talk chances

[andy232000 12,489]

6 minutes ago, Tranquil said:

I totally agree with Gaga having the highest chance at winning Album of the Year. I posted in a different thread but this is my opinion going into Album of the Year,

The Clipse nomination might be the biggest factor against Kendrick's chance at winning it. I did a bit of research (mostly checked the Kendrick Lamar subreddit) and there are vocal fans that believe Clipse has the better rap album. CHROMAKOPIA further dilutes Kendrick's chance at winning it.

I don't think Bad Bunny has it in the bag either. Based on my research, Bad Bunny has NEVER won the Latin Grammy for Album of the Year. I doubt the new Grammy voters have enough numbers to push it now. 

Only wildcard I see is Sabrina pulling some pop votes away from Gaga but Sabrina's album wasn't THAT huge.

This is all speculation but I think Gaga's chances are the highest ever. I hope I'm not proven wrong.

Now that you mention it, yes, Bad Bunny has never won a general field Latin Grammy. I have a working theory that Latin votes within the recording Academy and the actual Latinos in the Latin Grammys Academy are not as aligned as one would think. 

Last year, Shakira lost AOTY at the Latin Grammys, but then went on and was the ONLY nominee that achieved a Best Pop Latin nominee at the US Grammys. A similar case happened with Rosalia. She won AOTY at the Latin Grammys but was snubbed in the US ceremony. Not even nominated. 

My guess is that American-Latinos will often nominate and vote for the most visible Latino artist, while the actual Latino voters dont necessarily bank on the same nominee.

[Tranquil 105]

Just now, andy232000 said:

Now that you mention it, yes, Bad Bunny has never won a general field Latin Grammy. I have a working theory that Latin votes within the recording Academy and the actual Latinos in the Latin Grammys Academy are not as aligned as one would think. 

Last year, Shakira lost AOTY at the Latin Grammys, but then went on and was the ONLY nominee that achieved a Best Pop Latin nominee at the US Grammys. A similar case happened with Rosalia. She won AOTY at the Latin Grammys but was snubbed in the US ceremony. Not even nominated. 

My guess is that American-Latinos will often nominate and vote for the most visible Latino artist, while the actual Latino voters dont necessarily bank on the same nominee.

I think a lot of people have a misconception that the Latino community is a monolith. The Latino community is too diverse. It's possible that every Latin Grammy voter will not vote for Bad Bunny. But we will see. I think gaga has the best shot at AOTY right now.

Someone else mentioned Bad Bunny will be busy preparing for his tour/superbowl. That might also take away from his ability to push his album to grammy voters.

[Dojo 19,578]

she will sweep and with EASE 

[Nagini 3,429]

Gaga will have pop, dance/electronic, jazz, and engineering votes. Pop/Jazz being some of the largest branches though I'd imagine they right-sized Jazz a bit having added more RnB/Rap/Latin voters (as we now see with 4 RnB/Rap albums represented in AOTY slots). The only scenario I see Gaga losing is if Sabrina pulls a ton of votes from Gaga. I just don't think that will be the case.

The math will still be hard for Bad Bunny (I doubt the Grammys is over-indexing on Latin music by large margin) and Kendrick's impact will be diluted as Chromakopia & the Pusha T album are actually votable/good quality albums people feel passionately about. 

Edited yesterday at 08:05 PM by Nagini

[River 119,137]

I honestly believe that after Gagacabana Gaga has a better chance to get votes from the new Latin voters than Bad Bunny.. I think we shouldn't discredit the huge impact she did in Latin America after the concert.

[TheMontebello 662]

I always expect the worst when it comes to the Grammys but let's hope for the best

[TheMontebello 662]

8 minutes ago, Tranquil said:

I think a lot of people have a misconception that the Latino community is a monolith. The Latino community is too diverse. It's possible that every Latin Grammy voter will not vote for Bad Bunny. But we will see. I think gaga has the best shot at AOTY right now.

Someone else mentioned Bad Bunny will be busy preparing for his tour/superbowl. That might also take away from his ability to push his album to grammy voters.

This is very true.

Here in Brazil, where his genre of music is not as popular, Bad Bunny is not that big and Gaga is much more listened to.

[andy232000 12,489]

6 minutes ago, Nagini said:

I really don't understand why this fanbase is constantly discounting her chances for AOTY when the math seems to be more in our favor than ever before. She deserves it and the odds are increasingly in her favor. Bad Bunny still has a hill to climb with the vast majority of voters who do not speak Spanish and Kendrick's base splitting across 3-4 respectable albums. The only person peeling away Gaga's votes is Sabrina-- but be honest. Are you voting for an ok-received album that had controversy surrounding the cover, or an album from a powerhouse vet who has more talent in her pinky than Justin Bieber & Sabrina combined?

Can we please start supporting Gaga and stop assuming that she's #2 compared to everybody else when the work and math do not suggest that whatsoever... 

 

THANK YOU. 

People forget AOTY race has many variables in the mix. This isn't purely a race about who had the biggest album. Its about numbers, voter demography, Grammy campaign, Track record with the grammy, reputation, legacy.

Gaga is healthy in all aspects when compared to someone a lot of these nominees

[Bronco 13,532]

AOTY is probably going to Bad Bunny. The Grammys have a history of making political points.

The Dixie Chicks winning with Taking the Long Way in 06 after their mass cancellation for opposing the Iraq War. 

Beyoncè & Cowboy Carter being her first big nom win was 100% political on the Grammys part. 

Given the current climate, a Bad Bunny win (which would be deserved it sa great album) would fit with their prior form of making subtle political stands. 

[tlittlemonster 2,431]

2 hours ago, Tranquil said:

I think a lot of people have a misconception that the Latino community is a monolith. The Latino community is too diverse. It's possible that every Latin Grammy voter will not vote for Bad Bunny. But we will see. I think gaga has the best shot at AOTY right now.

Someone else mentioned Bad Bunny will be busy preparing for his tour/superbowl. That might also take away from his ability to push his album to grammy voters.

Don't forget Brazilians are probably included in the Latin poll and I could see them favouring Gaga too especially after the record breaking concert in Copacabana 

[tlittlemonster 2,431]

1 hour ago, Bronco said:

AOTY is probably going to Bad Bunny. The Grammys have a history of making political points.

The Dixie Chicks winning with Taking the Long Way in 06 after their mass cancellation for opposing the Iraq War. 

Beyoncè & Cowboy Carter being her first big nom win was 100% political on the Grammys part. 

Given the current climate, a Bad Bunny win (which would be deserved it sa great album) would fit with their prior form of making subtle political stands. 

I understand the need to push certain things and make statements but I wish people would just vote for the music 

[Bronco 13,532]

35 minutes ago, tlittlemonster said:

I understand the need to push certain things and make statements but I wish people would just vote for the music 

I mean, music is in part about making a statement. Political music can still be good music.

[Murakami27 5,667]

2 hours ago, Bronco said:

Given the current climate, a Bad Bunny win (which would be deserved it sa great album) would fit with their prior form of making subtle political stands. 

Winning AOTY just days before performing Halftime Show at the Superbowl would be insane. And I can see it happening. 

[LordByron28 1,163]

Personal thoughts:

ROTY:

I feel Abracadabra has a good chance given their focus on production. Anxiety sampling lowers chances significantly, imo. Luther has potential but I don’t think it has the best production of the bunch. Also Abra being a big song this year. The rest aren’t pushing anything, imo. I’d rank this as a medium-high possibility.

SOTY:

Luther to me seems the most viable. Huge song dedicated to Luther Vandross seems like Grammy bait to me. Abracadabra seems less likely but chances are still there. I’d put this is as a medium-low chance. 
 

AOTY: 

Bad Bunny’s album was critically acclaimed, widely popular coupled with the political message about Puerto Rico and in a USA that is taking a very harsh approach to immigration and deportation this year. It seems like the most likely winner but it being all in Spanish does lower its chances. GNX discusses a wide range of topics and is very introspective on Kendrick’s part and has a few hits under its belt including NLU and Luther as well as critical acclaim. It’s competing with another hip-hop album and R&B album that have been well received limiting chances. Mayhem is a well produced album with hits on it and having major cultural moments throughout the year as well as a great critical response. I’d rank Mayhem’s chances as medium. It really depends on how many would be willing to vote for a Spanish album and the vote split between Kendrick, Tyler, etc. I really don’t think Sabrina’s album is real competition. Bad Bunny is I think the one that fits the moment but Kendrick and Gaga are strong runner-ups just depends on The Grammy’s voting category. Mayhem is still the AOTY in my heart and most played album this year by far. 
 

Best Pop Vocal Album- Mayhem has the highest chance out of any of the albums, imo.

Best Pop Vocal performance- I’d rank this as a 50-50 shot between Disease and The Subway. I think Disease is the better vocal performance while Chappel’s song was bigger/more popular and actually released this year. However, they both are pretty tight in terms of competitiveness. 
 

Best Pop- Dance and Traditional Pop Vocal- I don’t know anything about the competition in these categories. Gaga is the most recognizable in both categories, just depends how The Grammy’s want to play it. 

[Hadrian 826]

she's going to sweep the house like the cryptkeeper coming for your fav's wigs

edit: i dont know either 

Edited 19 hours ago by Hadrian