So now that we know, lets talk chances

[andy232000 12,467]

Today Grammy nominations were announced and boy was it a GREAT outcome for Mayhem & Harlequin, scoring a total of 7 eligible nominations for Gaga, and a couple more in the technical categories. 

But now that we know who we are up again, we can begin to predict with better accuracy who will win the price. 

RECORD OF THE YEAR: 

Nominees: DtMF, Manchild, Anxiety, WILDFLOWER, Abracadabra, Luther, The Subway, APT

Because there are 5 out of 8 nominees in the Pop genre, its almost impossible for Abracadabra to win this award, as the pop vote will split, allowing for Luther to come and sweep in. Unfortunately, we cannot count on this one. Gaga would have to get a TON of support from the pop voters and its hard she will get the majority. While I can see voters choosing to ignore WILDFLOWER and THE SUBWAY, as neither had a true impact this year (and one is from last year), I cant see everyone ignoring either Manchild or APT. 

 

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: 

Nominees: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, SWAG, Man’s Best Friend, Let God Sort Em Out, MAYHEM, GNX, MUTT, CHROMAKOPIA

Oh boy, here's where things will come down to a wire. We got 2 Pop albums, 2 Rap Albums & 2 RnB albums. This will most likely slow down Gaga and Kendrick, as Sabrina will eat away Gaga's votes and Tyler The Creator at Kendricks, making Bad Bunny's AOTY more and more likely. However, out of the three, Bad Bunny is the artist with least amount of voter support based on demography. Even with the invitation of the Latin Grammy Academy, there's still 16k voters total, meaning there is still a notable percentage that are not latinos, and might not vote for him. The three way race still stands, although circumstances have become more and more leveling. Its too early to predict who will win.

Its also important to know that neither of the three were nominated in best engineered album, which normally sets a precedent for the AOTY winner. However, Cirkut and Soundwave were nominated, while NO producer off of Bad Bunny's album was. It suggest sound engineers might vote for either Gaga or Kendrick.  

Ultimately, whomever choses to campaign in the key voting dates (December 12th until January 3rd), will rise as the most likelier winner. To my personal opinion, is that Kendrick is suffering more out of the three, because he is not campaigning and not rising in popularity. At least Gaga has kept her campaign afloat, and just until now, Bad Bunny is starting to rise. I would not be surprised if the race ends up being Gaga VS Bad Bunny. 

SONG OF THE YEAR: 

Nominees: Abracadabra, Anxiety, APT, DtMF, Golden, luther, Manchild, WILDFLOWER.

I actually think Abracadabra has a shot here. Anxiety might shine for its re-invention of the song it samples, but its also heavily criticized and more of a "Tik Tok" hit than anything else. In a Song writing category, it seems ironic this is even nominated and I don't see the Grammys having the balls to award a song that has essentially based its entirety structure and composition around someone else's work. Similarly, I highly doubt they want to set a precedent and give it to Golden, it being a "fictional" artist amidst the entire AI in music conversations. As for WILDFLOWER, the fact it was not nominated in Pop Solo Performance renders it weak in the Pop Voting field, so against  songs like Manchild and Abracadabra it doesn't stand a chance. Plus its a song from 2024 that has lost all momentum. DtMF was a huge hit, But culturally in the US its still a non-english song. The three-way race here is between Luther, APT and Abracadabra. Luther and APT are both the commercial nominees, while Abracadabra is the cultural nominee. It could go either way,  

BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE:

Nominees: Daisies, Manchild, Disease, The Subway, Messy

I also thing Disease has a huge shot in this category. Disease and Manchild are the commercial nominees, while The Subway and Disease are the actual performance picks. Given this category tends to favor actual performance, and in previous years Gaga won this award with a much smaller and less commercial song like Joanne, I can see Disease snatching this one. The Subway, although beautifully written, was not a commercial success and is not attached to a critically acclaimed album to help it. Messy by Lola young is the tik tok nominee, and it peaked too early in the year to win. Plus, Lola Young is not an established artist that can hold up against Gaga, Sabrina or Justin. Manchild could win, its the true competitor here. Daises is a very mellow pop song with the numbers to back it up, but Biebers disdain for being nominated in the pop categories might hurt him in the end. 

 

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM:

Nominees: SWAG, Mans Best Friend, Mayhem, Something Beautiful, MAYHEM, I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2),

Im gonna keep this one short. Only 3/5 are nominated in AOTY. Only one of those is a critically acclaimed album. Mayhem will win. 

 

BEST POP DANCE RECORDING: 

Nominees: Bluest Flame, Abracadabra, Midnight Sun, Just Keep Watching, Illegal

I'll keep this one short too. Abracadabra is winning. Case Close. 

 

BEST TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM:

Nominees: Wintersongs, The Gift of Love, A Matter of Time, The Secret of Life: Partners, Volume 2

I'm honestky surprised Who Believes In Angels is even here, because that is NOT a traditional pop vocal album at all. I was expecting this in the alternative or rock categories. On one hand, I feel this genre detail will turn off voters, on the other hand these are big names. Either way, there's still Lauffeys album in the way, and no Tony Bennet this time, so I can see Gaga losing this one. 

 

Obviously, there is still chance to campaign, and many sentiments will change from now to January when the voting period closes. Buy based on todays nominees, I say Gaga will be walking away with a minimun of 2 Grammy awards, with a possibility of 3. If the tides truly change, I can see 4, but not more than that. 

Edited 2 hours ago by andy232000

[andy232000 12,467]

Its also very important to note that Cirkut was also nominated in Producer of the Year and Gessaffelstein in the Best Remix Recording, which means more people outside of the pop and dance committees are supporting not only the music, but the technical qualities of Mayhem. This is always a good thing for the AOTY race. 

[Rahrahbitchson 21,160]

If im being totally honest, as much as i want AOTY/ROTY/SOTY for her. I think she is only getting Best Pop Solo, Best Pop Album and Best Dance Song, i think those 3 are very on lock 

Grammy's always doing the total opposite of who people think should win those big categories i mentioned, i wont be surprised if they give it to someone we totally didnt expected to win. I feel that in ROTY either Luther, Apt or Manchild are winning and in AOTY i have a strong feeling with DtMF

SOTY is the category with the least chances IMO

[REALITY 77,768]

I would think she has a better chance in ROTY than SOTY. Abra's highlight is in the production, not the songwriting. The reasoning you gave for ROTY could also be applied to SOTY, no?

[julz 7,508]

Yeah...as much as i want AOTY for Mayhem..Bad Bunny seems likely. But, knowing DWAS (the biggest duet song of the decade) and Abra is in Mayhem... i still believe that we can win Album.

Record is what is most likely for me to win because... just listen to Abra, and how impactful this song is locally and globally.

Song... thats tough really now, especially with Golden, APT and Wildflower in there.

Disease...yup!

Abra for Dance Pop.... yup yup!

Harlequin...im sorry, but i will still light Alejandro candles for u.

Best Pop Vocal...yup yup yup!!!

[nodandsmile 11,017]

she's incredibly strong in the pop field but outside of it is gonna be tough (but not impossible)

dance music hasn't won anything in the gf categories in +10 years, Beyoncé could not do it, I dared to have hope for Brat last year but even with 4 wins, Charli couldn't do it! So I'd be really shocked if Abracadabra wins anything there, I am surprised it even got into song!

AOTY is gonna be tough between Gaga, Bad Bunny and Kendrick... all released great and deserving projects but I am giving Kendrick the upper hand since he already broke into the general field (in an incredibly competitive year btw!) something his competitors haven't accomplished yet!

giving a great performance during voting could help probably!!!

[LOVEDRUG 10,899]

I think she's a shoo in for Pop Vocal, Pop Solo and Dance Pop. I will be very surprised if she loses any of those categories. She has a shot in AoTY (though I think it's not necessarily very likely) and SoTY, but I don't think either of those are at all locks.

[Blackout19 12,532]

you can call me crazy, but she will win at least 6

Edited 2 hours ago by Blackout19

[HBDYWM Stan 770]

3 minutes ago, Blackout19 said:

you can call me crazy, but she will win at least 6

I hope you're crazy and correct!

[andy232000 12,467]

Grammy Guru just posted an initial prediction where they anticipate that Kendrick will lose AOTY due to the nominee line up. Two rap albums and one RnB is deadly to his win. If they believe his road to AOTY has considerable bumps in the road, then this race is opening wide for someone like Gaga and Bad Bunny to TRULY have a shot. We have to support until the end guys.

[andy232000 12,467]

9 minutes ago, nodandsmile said:

she's incredibly strong in the pop field but outside of it is gonna be tough (but not impossible)

dance music hasn't won anything in the gf categories in +10 years, Beyoncé could not do it, I dared to have hope for Brat last year but even with 4 wins, Charli couldn't do it! So I'd be really shocked if Abracadabra wins anything there, I am surprised it even got into song!

AOTY is gonna be tough between Gaga, Bad Bunny and Kendrick... all released great and deserving projects but I am giving Kendrick the upper hand since he already broke into the general field (in an incredibly competitive year btw!) something his competitors haven't accomplished yet!

giving a great performance during voting could help probably!!!

Check my post above!

[andy232000 12,467]

21 minutes ago, REALITY said:

I would think she has a better chance in ROTY than SOTY. Abra's highlight is in the production, not the songwriting. The reasoning you gave for ROTY could also be applied to SOTY, no?

In theory yes, ROTY is the most logical win, but the pop split is larger in this line up, which is why I see it as more difficult to win.

[HeavyCapiLover 3,934]

14 minutes ago, nodandsmile said:

she's incredibly strong in the pop field but outside of it is gonna be tough (but not impossible)

dance music hasn't won anything in the gf categories in +10 years, Beyoncé could not do it, I dared to have hope for Brat last year but even with 4 wins, Charli couldn't do it! So I'd be really shocked if Abracadabra wins anything there, I am surprised it even got into song!

AOTY is gonna be tough between Gaga, Bad Bunny and Kendrick... all released great and deserving projects but I am giving Kendrick the upper hand since he already broke into the general field (in an incredibly competitive year btw!) something his competitors haven't accomplished yet!

giving a great performance during voting could help probably!!!

I heard that Brat was actually the second choice after Cowboy Carter for AOTY last year, and honestly it kinda makes sense. Brat had not only cultural and commercial success, but it was also an incredible work in terms of production, artistic creativity and even lyrics. Cowboy Carter was going to win anyway.

I dont think that the fact that Mayhem is a dance pop album is whats going to lesser its chance of winning. If anything, what will definitly settle the results, is the amount of votes that will go for Bad Bunny. 

[andy232000 12,467]

2 minutes ago, HeavyCapiLover said:

I heard that Brat was actually the second choice after Cowboy Carter for AOTY last year, and honestly it kinda makes sense. Brat had not only cultural and commercial success, but it was also an incredible work in terms of production, artistic creativity and even lyrics. Cowboy Carter was going to win anyway.

I dont think that the fact that Mayhem is a dance pop album is whats going to lesser its chance of winning. If anything, what will definitly settle the results, is the amount of votes that will go for Bad Bunny. 

I heard this too. 

The reason it lost was because Pop voters split too much. I mean there were 4 albums in Pop. A lot of these voters might have voted Brat since its also somewhat pop, had there not been too many nominees to pick from. 

Edited 1 hour ago by andy232000

[REALITY 77,768]

8 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

In theory yes, ROTY is the most logical win, but the pop split is larger in this line up, which is why I see it as more difficult to win.

Imo, the split difference between ROTY and SOTY isn't that much. Also, Abra's production is constantly emphasized whenever people talk about that particular song. The songwriting is good, but not SOTY worthy. I still think that it has a better shot at ROTY than SOTY. Honestly, I was surprised it was even nominated for SOTY