AOTY: Mayhem and its realistic chances

[Nycboy 1,046]

An AOTY nomination is on lock, but I’m prepared for her to not win. A nom would be amazing since she hasn’t been nominated for AOTY since BTW. 

Reasons why she might not win:

1. The Grammys never get it right.

2. Kendrick is big competition.

3. She didn’t win AOTY for TF/TFM/BTW, and I’d argue those had a bigger Grammys appeal. 

4. Mayhem has her highest rating on Metacritic, but the Grammys don’t care about that.

5. There isn’t a large public sentiment for her being “overdue” for AOTY like Beyoncé was. 

6. She’s everywhere this year, but still not as big as Taylor during 1989 or Midnights.

7. We don’t know yet who else might release an album and split the pop vote (Lorde, Lana?)

If she can produce one more hit from the album, she will become a clear front runner.

[andy232000 10,905]

1 hour ago, anonnona said:

Or maybe she could submit Happy Mistake/ Vanish Into You in Best Pop Solo. Hoping she also submits Killah for Best Pop Duo - imagine the potential sweep in the pop categories  but right now I think the most “locked” Pop categories are Best Dance Pop Recording and Best Pop Vocal Album like what you said

I chose Disease because it’s the only single left, but both Happy Mistakes and Vanish Into You are good contenders if given a proper shot. All of these three songs are interchangeable. 
 

Killah is not eligible for Best Pop Duo because Gessaffelstein is not credited as a performer. It is eligible in other Dance/Electronic Categories. They should submit there.

[andy232000 10,905]

1 hour ago, whoresup said:

Wildflower and Messy were technically released prior to September 2024 so I don’t think they’d be eligible. 

Wildflower was released as a single officially on February 28th 2025. And since the album did not win anything this year, it is eligible. 
 

Messy you are right! Unless Grammys prioritize the time in which a song became popular rather than its actual release date,(which has happened in the past) then this one isn’t eligible. 

[Stefanotta 1,203]

56 minutes ago, Nycboy said:

7. We don’t know yet who else might release an album and split the pop vote (Lorde, Lana?)

Lana, Lorde, Madonna (?!), Kesha, Ed Sheeran…

[andy232000 10,905]

1 hour ago, Nycboy said:

An AOTY nomination is on lock, but I’m prepared for her to not win. A nom would be amazing since she hasn’t been nominated for AOTY since BTW. 

Reasons why she might not win:

1. The Grammys never get it right.

2. Kendrick is big competition.

3. She didn’t win AOTY for TF/TFM/BTW, and I’d argue those had a bigger Grammys appeal. 

4. Mayhem has her highest rating on Metacritic, but the Grammys don’t care about that.

5. There isn’t a large public sentiment for her being “overdue” for AOTY like Beyoncé was. 

6. She’s everywhere this year, but still not as big as Taylor during 1989 or Midnights.

7. We don’t know yet who else might release an album and split the pop vote (Lorde, Lana?)

If she can produce one more hit from the album, she will become a clear front runner.

1. That’s actually not an objective fact. They are never gonna please everyone with their winners

2. Yes Kendrick is a big competitor but there are major hip hop releases that could split the vote. Also, his time was earlier this year, Gaga’s time is now. Recency Bias can help her. Golderby odds are at 13% Kendrick and 10% Gaga. That’s withing margin or errors. It’s anyone’s game. 
 

3. TFM wasn’t a fully fleshed album in terms of duration, and BTW was arguably a very polarizing era with controversial topics, especially when the Grammy voting pull was filled with older white men. Not the same case as today.

4. True, scores themselves don’t matter. But the critical acclaim is there just as much as other releases

5. This only applies to Beyonce. That overdue narrative was not present neither for Harry Styles, nor Taylor Swift, nor John Batiste. It’s not needed to win. 
 

6. Again, comparing metrics with THE Taylor Swift will always make Gaga look shy. Remember Taylor is an anomaly, not the rule. And Gaga is arguably everywhere this year. 
 

7. Lorde, Miley and Harry Styles (if he released). The first two are becoming smaller artist by the minute. Harry Styles is the one to fear. Lana is going country this time around so no Pop split. Other hot girls like Chappell Roan have been vocal about their albums not coming any time soon. Rn, no major Pop artist will release in time for September, unless it comes out of no where. 
 

Just the way I see it. I’m not confident she’ll win either, but it is her best shot and she’s a clear runner up with enough time to turn the tides in her favor

Edited Thursday at 06:20 PM by andy232000