AOTY: Mayhem and its realistic chances

[thetorturedlovers 65]

24 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

I’m in total agreement Kendrick is taking it, but saying Mayhem isn’t aoty worthy and thinking Midnights (of all albums), SOUR or Future Nostalgia are (I LOVE the last two albums btw) is kinda weird in itself. Pop records can be incredibly deserving too. 

Give Mayhem a chance. Maybe the reason you feel this way is cause the album is barely a week old. If Gaga plays her cards right (which believe me, I am not quick to say she will given her history), this could be the Future Nostalgia of this year.

Midnights will always have a special place in my life. Even though Taylor was already a 3-time AOTY winner and even though Midnights wasn’t her best work, my vote for AOTY was always going to Midnights. 
 

Midnights is a massive huge blockbuster album that’s started the biggest and highest-grossing concert tour in history and has launched one of the most successful and dominant era for an artist in modern history

[andy232000 10,970]

Just now, thetorturedlovers said:

Midnights will always have a special place in my life. Even though Taylor was already a 3-time AOTY winner and even though Midnights wasn’t her best work, my vote for AOTY was always going to Midnights. 
 

Midnights is a massive huge blockbuster album that’s started the biggest and highest-grossing concert tour in history and has launched one of the most successful and dominant era for an artist in modern history

Commercial success definitely plays a huge part on an aoty win, but it’s not always a guarantee that the biggest album will take it. What I meant is that, Midnights is often considered a mediocre album win, and especially for Taylor ir you compare it to her previous 3 wins. That sets a precedent that any album with a similar or higher quality and critic praise as Midnight can take it. Mayhem certainly matches Midnights quality, and according to critics, it surpasses it by a long shot. All that Mayhem is missing is the comercial success/impact to become a strong opponent in the aoty race. The next 6 months will determine that.

[freebit 6,221]

If Gaga wants Shammy success, she 100% has the potential to go the 24K Magic route like Bruno (who also successfully debuted within the 200K range) and was able to pull longevity enough to take AOTY - NOT that I want her to get AOTY over Kendrick, in fact, I don't want that, but she could continue to make the awards watchers on GoldDerby mad and bothered if she chose to keep releasing videos and performances. 

[CharlieCashmere 85]

What are the odds of Gaga also winning Record *and* Song of the Year?

[HotLikeMexico 5,080]

The year isn’t even over. Someone could drop something that decimates everybody. 

[LateToCult 40,767]

I think an AOTY nomination is likely. However I don’t see it winning. The critical reception to it was warm and the commercial success so far is decent but the AOTY Grammy is usually given to a record that has noteworthy commercial success or is universally acclaimed. Don’t think Mayhem is gonna be enough of a standout by the time voting commences.

[Economy 49,021]

Lets hope. I think if Abra really takes off that would help as well so that it has at least 2 signature hits instead of just 1

[andy232000 10,970]

36 minutes ago, CharlieCashmere said:

What are the odds of Gaga also winning Record *and* Song of the Year?

Close to none. Die With a Smile already took those chances away

[StrawberryBlond 14,641]

Winning has and always will be an uphill struggle. I think her chances in the past have been higher as well, TFM and ASIB were her most obvious opportunities and ASIB wasn't even nominated, a snub that makes no sense considering that album won multiple Grammys and it still stings to this day. But this is genuinely a great opportunity. The only other major contender is Kendrick and there's a chance he might be denied a win again as he won so heavily for one song this year and now is one of the most awarded hip hop acts ever and hip hop albums have always struggled to win before. Gaga has been in the industry long enough now that she's built up crazy respect and the academy could be in the mood to give artists a long overdue win after finally allowing Beyonce to win after all this time. If Mayhem is nominated, Gaga will have been nominated the same amount of times as Beyonce, so that's major. 4 AOTY nominations are substantial. A 5th one will really make the academy take a second look and think she's earned it by now. The great MC score is definitely going to make them take notice. If she can get more hits and make an impactful appearance at all her upcoming gigs, her chances increase exponentially. 

I also really want to hammer home to all those who say she doesn't stand a chance as the MC score isn't high enough or she doesn't have enough impactful hits from it: this has never been a barrier to getting nominated. Rihanna's Loud (67), Katy's Teenage Dream (52) and Post's Beerbongs & Bentleys (51) all got nominated purely because of the massive amount of hits they generated. So, with a 84, even without hits, Gaga's already looking good. And even if it doesn't get any more hits, plenty of albums get nominated that have had no hits at all. Beck, Sturgill Simpson, Black Pumas, Jon Batiste, Andre 3000, etc. are only a handful of names in the last few years that made albums that had no hits to speak of, some of these people aren't even known to the public at large. But the Grammys picked them out as they thought they had something special and some of them even won. Every year, there's that one big outlier. So, Gaga's got every chance. She got nominated for L4S which only had a score of 70, had no hits and only her fans know she even put that album out, so she has every chance with this project. Anyone who's been nominated 4 times already will have developed a long-held respect that will automatically increase chances of nomination from the off. 

[andy232000 10,970]

13 minutes ago, StrawberryBlond said:

Winning has and always will be an uphill struggle. I think her chances in the past have been higher as well, TFM and ASIB were her most obvious opportunities and ASIB wasn't even nominated, a snub that makes no sense considering that album won multiple Grammys and it still stings to this day. But this is genuinely a great opportunity. The only other major contender is Kendrick and there's a chance he might be denied a win again as he won so heavily for one song this year and now is one of the most awarded hip hop acts ever and hip hop albums have always struggled to win before. Gaga has been in the industry long enough now that she's built up crazy respect and the academy could be in the mood to give artists a long overdue win after finally allowing Beyonce to win after all this time. If Mayhem is nominated, Gaga will have been nominated the same amount of times as Beyonce, so that's major. 4 AOTY nominations are substantial. A 5th one will really make the academy take a second look and think she's earned it by now. The great MC score is definitely going to make them take notice. If she can get more hits and make an impactful appearance at all her upcoming gigs, her chances increase exponentially. 

I also really want to hammer home to all those who say she doesn't stand a chance as the MC score isn't high enough or she doesn't have enough impactful hits from it: this has never been a barrier to getting nominated. Rihanna's Loud (67), Katy's Teenage Dream (52) and Post's Beerbongs & Bentleys (51) all got nominated purely because of the massive amount of hits they generated. So, with a 84, even without hits, Gaga's already looking good. And even if it doesn't get any more hits, plenty of albums get nominated that have had no hits at all. Beck, Sturgill Simpson, Black Pumas, Jon Batiste, Andre 3000, etc. are only a handful of names in the last few years that made albums that had no hits to speak of, some of these people aren't even known to the public at large. But the Grammys picked them out as they thought they had something special and some of them even won. Every year, there's that one big outlier. So, Gaga's got every chance. She got nominated for L4S which only had a score of 70, had no hits and only her fans know she even put that album out, so she has every chance with this project. Anyone who's been nominated 4 times already will have developed a long-held respect that will automatically increase chances of nomination from the off. 

Yes yes yes to everything you said! 

Gaga’s 84 is only 3 points short of Kendricks GNX. And the pop voters are the biggest voting block. So even that alone could cancel out the critical score difference. 
 

Obviously this is an uphill fight, but there IS a cleat path that Gaga’s team can take advantage off. If they choose to, they can put up this fight, whereas previous years they had no shot at all.

[Ladle Ghoulash 20,478]

12 hours ago, thetorturedlovers said:

It’s just not thee AOTY material to me. My AOTY standars are very high, all I said was that I don’t think it’s good enough to be crowned as the #1 greatest album of the year. I stand by that, it’s a standard pop album without the massive commercial success that is expected from a pop album. There’s nothibg about Mayhem that’s so special or undeniable that I would want to honor Gaga and vote for her to win AOTY. It’s not 1989, 25, 24k Magic or Midnights type of huge pop blockbuster

I mean 1989 won over TPAB (a far superior and far more culturally significant album), so truly anything can happen. Also the Midnights sneak made me lol because we can’t be out here acting like Mayhem doesn’t blow those 1989/Reputation reheats out of the water 

[James Gibson 3,471]

12 hours ago, thetorturedlovers said:

It’s just not thee AOTY material to me. My AOTY standars are very high, all I said was that I don’t think it’s good enough to be crowned as the #1 greatest album of the year. I stand by that, it’s a standard pop album without the massive commercial success that is expected from a pop album. There’s nothibg about Mayhem that’s so special or undeniable that I would want to honor Gaga and vote for her to win AOTY. It’s not 1989, 25, 24k Magic or Midnights type of huge pop blockbuster

Saying your standards are very high for AOTY then mention Midnights

[Alfonso 1,538]

Sorry, I didn't read the post because it was too long but I definitely think that it could be nominated. I don't know why people are saying it doesn't have a chance. It's not like they're super selective and also, the category is large. 

Anyways. Knowing the Grammy's, they will probably give it to someone else, including Kendrick, which sucks but oh well. 

[James Gibson 3,471]

I agree the album needs longevity so I hope Gaga keeps prompting and not disappear in the second half of the year.

What some people at Goldderby (the awards predicting site) are realizing is most General Field and BPVA winners are usually released in the first half of the year as they represent more what impacted such calendar. 

Late releases usually dont have time to be perceived by voters for its worthiness of a win. That was seen with Gaga in Shallow and Die With a Smile. Had such songs released or peaked some months before we might've seen Gaga taken it.

So I can't count on AOTY yet but I believe she has a genuine shot at BPVA specially if Abracadabra serves more longevity as Interscope seems willing to push it more. That would make Mayhem an album with two big hits and its noted Pop Album is frequentely awarded to albums with multiple solid hits.

What could perhaps hurt her is Harry for reasons aforementioned in the OP. But I believe its a genuine shot for Gaga.

And then there's the other pop, dance and trad pop category she can easily make in. With Abracadabra in Dance Pop recording being a near lock already.

Side note: while I do believe Harlequin can easily be nomd in Traditional Pop Album, dont be surprised if she doesnt win as that category is part of the jazz field now and we still don't know how such type of voters feel about Gaga yet. Next year will be a good momento to test that.

[andy232000 10,970]

29 minutes ago, James Gibson said:

I agree the album needs longevity so I hope Gaga keeps prompting and not disappear in the second half of the year.

What some people at Goldderby (the awards predicting site) are realizing is most General Field and BPVA winners are usually released in the first half of the year as they represent more what impacted such calendar. 

Late releases usually dont have time to be perceived by voters for its worthiness of a win. That was seen with Gaga in Shallow and Die With a Smile. Had such songs released or peaked some months before we might've seen Gaga taken it.

So I can't count on AOTY yet but I believe she has a genuine shot at BPVA specially if Abracadabra serves more longevity as Interscope seems willing to push it more. That would make Mayhem an album with two big hits and its noted Pop Album is frequentely awarded to albums with multiple solid hits.

What could perhaps hurt her is Harry for reasons aforementioned in the OP. But I believe its a genuine shot for Gaga.

And then there's the other pop, dance and trad pop category she can easily make in. With Abracadabra in Dance Pop recording being a near lock already.

Side note: while I do believe Harlequin can easily be nomd in Traditional Pop Album, dont be surprised if she doesnt win as that category is part of the jazz field now and we still don't know how such type of voters feel about Gaga yet. Next year will be a good momento to test that.

I’m pretty sure that Jazz voters absolutely know about Gaga, given she’s won twice before. However, if it happens, this will be the first time she would compete without Tony’s name attached to the project. We’ll finally find out how much respect they have for her specifically.