Hot 100: DISEASE is predicted to debut inside Top 20, DWAS new peak at #2

[moonsago 6,518]

This is the MIDWEEK PREDICTION, before the MV dropped and before DWAS had all the new version drop. I believe midweek predictions stop at Tuesday. DWAS is most likely going nr. 1, it did almost 20k just from itunes over the past 2 and a half days. And Disease might debut inside top 15. Let’s wait for the final predictions. If Tyler didn’t drop his album, I think Disease could have debuted top 10…. 

[moonsago 6,518]

4 hours ago, lilboyblue said:

They are projections, so they take into account the points a song is predicted to make throughout the week, based on how the song is trending.

It's possible they are being conservative though with figures, especially since discount + new variants came midweek.

Yes but they still stop at tuesday, and that’s when Interscope dropped the new versions. They predict for the rest of the week with the info they have by then, they estimate, especially looking back at the performance of the song last week. DWAS did almost 20k sales on itunes alone after the new versions dropped, plus sales on other sites, that alone should be 20 points. I do believe nr. 1 is on lock and Disease might crack top 15. But let’s see.

[nATAH 42,196]

1 hour ago, palma said:

Well it was released few weeks ago, is a passion project, caters primarily to her big fans that would buy anything she releases. I'm not saying she's a flop or anything I just assumed that her core fanbase no longer runs to purchase en masse whatever new Lady Gaga music is out - and that's fine, we're all getting a bit old for Swiftery 

but it's a side project with no album campaign consisting of jazz covers, something her fans have never really supported anyway

she's always been a big album seller with her main solo projects, LG7 will be no different

[Mr S 8,146]

That's better. I was hearing top 40 or top 25. Hopefully it stays in the top 20 next week with album bomb dropping. I agree the peak is yet to come as they will want streaming and radio at it's peak before dropping physicals 

[JustTea 4,116]

1 hour ago, moonsago said:

This is the MIDWEEK PREDICTION, before the MV dropped and before DWAS had all the new version drop. I believe midweek predictions stop at Tuesday. DWAS is most likely going nr. 1, it did almost 20k just from itunes over the past 2 and a half days. And Disease might debut inside top 15. Let’s wait for the final predictions. If Tyler didn’t drop his album, I think Disease could have debuted top 10…. 

We don't know the actual numbers from iTunes... 

"Since actual sales figures are no longer available, the following figures have been generated by a statistical model."

[RodeckDanny 2,214]

come on US gals keeps streaming Disease!!
We're going hard here in the UK 

[Red 94,420]

How come Gaga had her best streaming  performance ever, a lot of sales and radio support and it’s gonna debut lower than Perfect Illusion? Charts don’t make sense

Thanks God I’m not obsessed with it or I’d be having a mental breakdown 

[Mr S 8,146]

43 minutes ago, Red said:

How come Gaga had her best streaming  performance ever, a lot of sales and radio support and it’s gonna debut lower than Perfect Illusion? Charts don’t make sense

Thanks God I’m not obsessed with it or I’d be having a mental breakdown 

They are holding back the physicals. Also I believe streaming counted less  and iTunes has more weight in 2016

[TEANUS 12,376]

Couldn’t DWAS snatch number one the following week or theoretically in the next few weeks before Christmas really takes over if it doesn’t get it this week?? Streams are consistent or even STILL slightly growing and radio is still increasing. I know we wouldn’t have the sales anymore but with Shaboozey falling on radio….

[TEANUS 12,376]

59 minutes ago, Red said:

How come Gaga had her best streaming  performance ever, a lot of sales and radio support and it’s gonna debut lower than Perfect Illusion? Charts don’t make sense

Thanks God I’m not obsessed with it or I’d be having a mental breakdown 

Digital sales were still a thing in 2016. PI debuted with 100k PURE sales if I’m remembering correctly

[RochestrMonstr 2,462]

We live in a different era. Lower (but still solid) debut does not automatically equal “dwindling fan base” or flop or doom. 
 

Things are counted differently now for the hot 100, and they’ve pretty much changed the rules between all of Gaga’s album releases since at least ARTPOP.

I think a few weeks should go by before people panic (if they feel inclined) but I know that’s not possible around here 🤷🏻‍♀️
 

 

[Sneaky Oliver 21,233]

I think the label is aiming for longevity instead of peak, we got the video for week one, the song is already on today’s top hits playlist for week two and maybe the physical sales too 

We saw how they were not desperate for DWAS to go #1, they’ve could’ve released the alternate versions earlier but they’ve waited until the song had a chance to go #1 organically so they would push it 

[KennyRichie 1,734]

8 hours ago, OliviaRodrigoStan said:

The thing is, charts now take so many things into consideration, a song with higher sales can, and will, chart lower than a song that has high radio airplay, or a young enough audience to spam streams. Now it is possible to have a #1 song that has lower sales than the #2, so... it's the current state of the industry. 

GaGa does not have radio support, so Disease is charting exclusively because of the support from Pop Music fans and nothing else. It has not reached non-fans, yet. 

It is a fun song, and I can see it resonating with other demographics, but it'll take for some kind of unconventional exposure for that to happen. Either the song being used on a popular show, a commercial, a viral edit, or something. 

For now, we should be happy with a TOP20 placement. It isn't the kind of song that charts at all in the first place. For context, this track was compared to Nine Inch Nails, which is the most commercially successful Industrial band. 

Their highest charting song, of all time, is "Hand That Feeds", which Disease shares common elements with; it peaked at #36 in the HOT100 

For this kind of music, this is low-key as high as it gets. 

This is a really good comparison, songs like this, from other artists, don’t chart even close to top 20. 
 

look at what happens with her jazz, it’s lower than her pop songs of course but bigger than any other artist doing the same.

[Economy 46,964]

11 hours ago, Sneaky Oliver said:

I think the label is aiming for longevity instead of peak, we got the video for week one, the song is already on today’s top hits playlist for week two and maybe the physical sales too 

We saw how they were not desperate for DWAS to go #1, they’ve could’ve released the alternate versions earlier but they’ve waited until the song had a chance to go #1 organically so they would push it 

Kind of agree. My only concern in Diseases case is the song was released so close to Christmas freeze, that if it doesnt take off enough by end of November it may not survive thru the season.

 

I guess im just saying at this time of the year playing longevity game probably comes with more risks

Edited November 2 by Economy

[hieronymus 9,633]

I'm not reading 6 pages of speculation. It's an inherently spooky song and Christmas songs are about to flood the market. This song is about to plummet in popularity. AND WHO KNEW. WHO COULD'VE PREDICTED THAT A SPOOKY SONG RELEASED SO CLOSE TO HALLOWEEN WOULD HAVE SUCH LITTLE IMPACT.