Transnistria to no longer receive Russian gas by 2025

[Ayesha Erotica 1,924]

10 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

@LoliLux

1.As such, no politician will do something perceived as going against the US, because his career will be over.

2. On another level this is the psychological effect of Romania's abandonment in the wake of WW2, when Russia took Bessarabia & northern Bukowina, Hungary annexed northern Transylvania and Bulgaria took Cadrilater, and nobody stepped in to help.

3. I don't understand why the US doesn't tell Ukraine that it needs to respect the rights of its ethnic minorities

4. Ukraine is more important than Romania and Hungary

5. For these reasons, I love it when countries like France and Turkey play both sides

6. I agree with Macron that the EU should follow its own path when it comes to Taiwan

To 1+2: I think that Romanian politicians are actually drawing the wrong psychological conclusion from this: precisely because they were abandoned, they should expect to be abandoned again. Therefore, they would have to minimize the risk by having multiple guarantors of security (NATO AND China AND somewhat non-war-promoting behavior towards Russia). By betting on just one card, they are digging a risky 50% grave.

To 3: Well, we've actually already given ourselves the answer to 3: because Romania doesn't dance at two weddings, the USA takes it for granted. The USA considers RO to be under its control. But we also need to understand why RO politicians are so afraid of doing anything with China. I don't know the situation of the media in RO, but in Poland it is like this: the state media belong to Poland, the majority of the large free media belong to Germany and the USA and are pro-EU, pro-USA. In Germany everything belongs to the Germans, but they represent the interests of the USA first.  Poland wanted to pass a law in which media should not be owned by non-EU companies, basically it would only affect the USA. The Polish colony bowed to US pressure and gave up the law... which shows us that Poland is very much under US control. I just think it's unfair because Poles don't own any major media companies in the US, while the US owns many in Poland. Poland is simply... submissive and... did I already say very submissive? China is much smarter because it does not allow its media to be bought by other countries. Having control over media means having control about the direction of a country and they shouldn't be in foreign hands.

To 4: Given that UKR is 3x the size and 2x the population of RO and also is a transit country to Central Europe, I agree, UKR is considered as more important by the USA geopolitically. However, if UKR experiences the Korean scenario, RO might some day be considered more important. And at least for now, RO is more important than UKR for China b/c UKR is poor and investments make more sense in RO, and UKR has so many US/EU debts, that smart China won't invest much there.

To 5: France and Switzerland are the only real independent countries in Western Europe. France because it has nucleaer weapons, Switzerland because it has direct democracy and a robust legal system out of reach from US interference. Turkey is one more independent NATO country. Besides, Saudi Arabia is dancing on multiple weddings and we can notice that USA tries to appease SA more, after it interacted more with China.

To 6: I also agree with Macron's initial statement about Taiwan. The EU must not allow itself to be drawn into a war. We should not interfere in China's backyard. But we must not forget when Macron was criticized afterwards, that he then gave in and became an ar**-licker and partially revised his statements and, like a model student, wants to be praised not only by his wife-teacher, but also by the other Western countries.   And I would like to remind that France gave Poland a security promise to defend POL in the event of a Nazi GER attack before WWII. France didn't help. (This is why I think RO might receive no help, either) Later FRA joined NATO and at some point realized "the USA will not help us, we need nuclear weapons ourselves" - and so FRA strived for and got nuclear weapons. France is the largest fraudster of the 20th century, considering its colonial crimes, the betrayal of Poland, not stopping Hitler, in my opinion, and a certified, unreliable nation. I would put more faith in a security architecture with China than one led by France.

[FfFfFfFF 58,118]

@LoliLux (1,2) The United States isn't a good ally. But Russia is in no way better, from Romania's view Russia is actually more dangerous because of the grip it has on Moldova's autonomous regions and because of the fact that it informally (and to an extend formally) has claims over the entire Bessarabia. For this reason I would like Romania to try to collaborate with more countries outside the Unites States (which is unfortunately needed), and excluding Russia which is an enemy, that is: China, India, Brazil (tbh India is in many ways an underestimated new geopolitical player, though Greece and Armenia are sensing it and acting like a gateway between India and the EU). And regionally Poland is a very important partner for Romania, with common goals (the desire to containg the war despite Poland's agressive rethoric, the desire to weaken Russian influence in the region) and common experiences, including when it comes to Ukraine.

(3) I agree with everythig said. Here I mention that the US has a lot of influence in Romania and Romanians are very docile people (what do the Persian, Roman, Byzantine, Mongol, Ottoman, Russian, Austro-Hungarian and German and NATO empires have in common? they all controlled a piece of Romanian land & and there is a reason for that). But some things cannot be whitewashed, for instance the rights of ethnic Romanians abroad remain on the agenda regardless of guilt-tripping and the desire to shut the conversation.

(4) This is an interesting point, which highlights that the Korean scenario in many ways already happened: Russia annexed 1/4 of Ukraine's 1991 territory, and the other 3/4 became a client state financially and militarily integrated with the US. I recently read that according to the Global Peace Index, the majority of Ukrainian men aged 18-26 died or fled the country. No matter the outcome of the war by this point, I believe Ukraine will end up destroyed. Neither Washington, Bruxelles or Kyiv want peace negociations, so this is where we're heading. Like, I personally would want the destruction to cease, but it seems this is not desired by any player. So the path we're heading is that Ukraine will become a dysfunctional rump state with no power of its own and lesser population, which would ultimately make Romania more powerful. And here I mention that this is actually the opposite of what I want, but it seems like this is the direction we're heading (Ukraine and Russia destroying each other would only make Romania more powerful).

(5) I believe no country is fully independent in this current age- Ofc, there are various degrees of independence, but in France's case the US is still very powerful and influential, and France also feels the need to appease and cooperate with Germany - because after the World Wars France learned that peace there should be a degree of co-existence (this is why I believe France started out with a softer approach to Russia also- that was ditched under US pressure). The US can influence most places in the world sans places like Russia and China, so even Switzerland has a degree of influence from the US, also through the EU which has many bilateral treaties with Switzerland.

(6) From Romania's perspective, France is seen as a historical and important ally and a fellow Latin nation which is a fertile ground for cultural exchange type of programmes, but at the same time as a country which cannot be fully be trusted, in part because of historical precedents. Before WW2, Romania had a defence treaty with Poland, which in turn had a defence treaty with France, which proved ultimately worthless when the USSR invaded and occupied eastern Poland and later Bessarabia. Before WW2 we actually had many alliances including the Little Entente with Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Entente and the Balkan Pact with Greece, Turkey and Yugoslavia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkan_Pact - all were ultimately ineffective - this is where the abandonment issues come from.