Putin invades Ukraine

[Magui 2,654]

@FfFfFfFF i was just listening some "experts" on TV,  that Kharkiv and Odessa are essential objectives for Russia. Kharkiv cause it provides connection to some important routes and Odessa for the importance of the city and cause it would asphyxiate economically Ukraine. And an economically damaged Ukraine without ports to transfer their goods would be great for Russia. Anyways since nothing good comes from Ukraine, and Russia it's advancing everyday, my question is: how much do you think Ukraine can take? Like we already talk about this, they will lose about 30/20 % of their territory (i truly hope Odessa remains Ukraine territory, but idk what to think anymore). At some point Ukraine probably will have to negotiate something?( in order to achieve some peace and maintain part of the their territory). 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

9 hours ago, Magui said:

@FfFfFfFF i was just listening some "experts" on TV,  that Kharkiv and Odessa are essential objectives for Russia. Kharkiv cause it provides connection to some important routes and Odessa for the importance of the city and cause it would asphyxiate economically Ukraine. And an economically damaged Ukraine without ports to transfer their goods would be great for Russia. Anyways since nothing good comes from Ukraine, and Russia it's advancing everyday, my question is: how much do you think Ukraine can take? Like we already talk about this, they will lose about 30/20 % of their territory (i truly hope Odessa remains Ukraine territory, but idk what to think anymore). At some point Ukraine probably will have to negotiate something?( in order to achieve some peace and maintain part of the their territory). 

Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Odesa are milestones, end goals for Russia. Taking these cities is not in Russia's immediate reach, because clearly Russia wasn't able to take any 1M+ city yet, only Mariupol with a prewar population of 400k. Taking them would require an even longer siege than Mariupol. At the same time, they hold economic, but also historical and propagandistic value (they call them "Russian cities" because they are heavily linked with Russian's history, which is ultimately true). Getting them back would be symbolical for Russian nationalism and basically a national emancipation.

However, as you said, despite headlines that Russia is perpetually running out of resources, they continue to push. They will puh and continue to take territory little by little, so the idea of a takeover of Kharkiv and Odesa remsins possible over the long term.

The issue is that according to polls, 90% of of Ukrainians are against ceding any territory. The Russians will not accept not getting back Novorossya and Ukraine will not accept any concessions either, this sets the conditions for very long and intense battles. Also, Russia proved time and time again they don't respect international treaties, so Ukraine knows Russia can attack again even after a peace in which they take Donbas, Crimea and Zaporizhia.

[Dennis 8,391]

I'm very worried about how far Russia will go. They may go for the entirety of Ukraine at this point. Putin knows Russia has a population problem and what better way to solve it than just annex a country with 40M people.

The arm shipments really need to pick up the pace.

[Dennis 8,391]

11 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

The issue is that according to polls, 90% of of Ukrainians are against ceding any territory. The Russians will not accept not getting back Novorossya and Ukraine will not accept any concessions either, this sets the conditions for very long and intense battles. Also, Russia proved time and time again they don't respect international treaties, so Ukraine knows Russia can attack again even after a peace in which they take Donbas, Crimea and Zaporizhia.

Exactly. I fully understand Ukrainian position. They probably think that a ceasefire doesn't mean anything and it's just time for Russia to regroup and attack again.

I think Putin simply wants the whole Ukraine. Even if he settles for half now, he'll attack again later blaming some border skirmishes or NATO weapon deliveries.

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

3 hours ago, Dennis said:

Exactly. I fully understand Ukrainian position. They probably think that a ceasefire doesn't mean anything and it's just time for Russia to regroup and attack again.

I think Putin simply wants the whole Ukraine. Even if he settles for half now, he'll attack again later blaming some border skirmishes or NATO weapon deliveries.

Yeah. When all peace plans favorable to Russia are completely unacceptable to Ukraine and when all situations favorable to Ukraine are completely unacceptable to Russia, this is a recipe for a long conflict. Like... Russia will never give up on its ambition to take over Novorossya due to how important is to them, historically, culturally, economically and last but not least EMOTIONALLY. These are the lands of the Kievan Rus, which they see as primordial Russia. They also see Belarus, Ukraine and Russia as a single ethno-space that they believe should be ruled from Moscow. It's for these reasons Putin said ''Ukraine doesn't exist''.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

3 hours ago, Dennis said:

I'm very worried about how far Russia will go. They may go for the entirety of Ukraine at this point. Putin knows Russia has a population problem and what better way to solve it than just annex a country with 40M people.

The arm shipments really need to pick up the pace.

There is no solution in sight except for NATO to guarantee for the security of Ukraine (which let's be honest, won't happen), so at the very least the neighboring NATO countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania) to be security providers for certain regions in the country's west, which never belonged to the Russian Empire and are removed enough from the Russia culturally and historically, to the point that Russia knows it won't be able to integrate them into the Russian Federation and won't attempt to annex.

• Lviv and Galicia for instance were historically ruled by the Hapsburg Empire, Austria-Hungary and Poland and are very much Central European in culture, completely different to Donbas or the lands east of the Dnieper and very close to Slovakia and Poland. • Transcarpatika oblast has an important Rusyn and Hungarian population and was historically part of the Hapsburg Empire, Austria-Hungary and Czechoslovakia, never part of Russia until the Soviet takeover. • Chernivski oblast has a big Romanian population and was never Russian, it was part of the Principality of Moldova, Austria-Hungary and the Kindgom of Romania (Chernivtsi and Transcarpatika are in fact some of the only oblasts without almost any war activy since February 24). 

[Magui 2,654]

5 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

There is no solution in sight except for NATO to guarantee for the security of Ukraine (which let's be honest, won't happen), so at the very least the neighboring NATO countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania) to be security providers for certain regions in the country's west, which never belonged to the Russian Empire and are removed enough from the Russia culturally and historically, to the point that Russia knows it won't be able to integrate them into the Russian Federation and won't attempt to annex.

• Lviv and Galicia for instance were historically ruled by the Hapsburg Empire, Austria-Hungary and Poland and are very much Central European in culture, completely different to Donbas or the lands east of the Dnieper and very close to Slovakia and Poland. • Transcarpatika oblast has an important Rusyn and Hungarian population and was historically part of the Hapsburg Empire, Austria-Hungary and Czechoslovakia, never part of Russia until the Soviet takeover. • Chernivski oblast has a big Romanian population and was never Russian, it was part of the Principality of Moldova, Austria-Hungary and the Kindgom of Romania (Chernivtsi and Transcarpatika are in fact some of the only oblasts without almost any war activy since February 24). 

While I do understand the culture ties you so well explained, countries can't simply start thinking like Russia...wtf if everyone starts to thinking like this we will do back to the time of what? Now every big empire wants to rule again? Ukraine doesn't exist in Putin's mind lol, come on...the more time passes the more i feel Ukrainians are doomed... ( I do understand that without the support they got by Europe and US, even if many think is too small, Putin would have taken the whole Ukraine by now, Zelensky would be imprisoned or seeking asylum in some country, or even dead). Anyways what i get from this, international laws, signed treaties, sovereign countries, non of it means anything... it's like we simply can go back to almost medieval times in a second. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

1 minute ago, Magui said:

While I do understand the culture ties you so well explained, countries can't simply start thinking like Russia...wtf if everyone starts to thinking like this we will do back to the time of what? Now every big empire wants to rule again? Ukraine doesn't exist in Putin's mind lol, come on...the more time passes the more i feel Ukrainians are doomed... ( I do understand that without the support they got by Europe and US, even if many think is too small, Putin would have taken the whole Ukraine by now, Zelensky would be imprisoned or seeking asylum in some country, or even dead). Anyways what i get from this, international laws, signed treaties, sovereign countries, non of it means anything... it's like we simply can go back to almost medieval times in a second. 

There is no way out if neither sides wants to compromise, and this is sadly the current situation. The question is whether the sanctions on Russia will hinder its ability to create more weapons, if so, they will stop (this is only if Russia's new possible allies such as China, India or Brazil won't give Russia support). The ''rule-based order'' becomes meaningless when irrendentist countries such as Russia actively want to oppose it. I was reading the other day about Dugin's book on Eurasianism, which is fundamentally a marxist reading on history. They say the world order and all its signed treaties are in place to benefit ''the Western minority'', and that all unfavored countries should rebel in a Moscow-led coallition against the ''opressive'' Atlantic civilization. Basically advocating for a Russia-China axis to dethrone the West. Scarry stuff, this is the closest you can get to feeling what someone might have felt in Europe in the 1930s reading Hitler's Mein Kampf 

Eurasianism partly explains why Putin himself said Ukraine doesn't exist, Russia's ambigous relations with Turkey, not to say, the deeping of ties with China, Iran etc.

[Magui 2,654]

16 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

There is no way out if neither sides wants to compromise, and this is sadly the current situation. The question is whether the sanctions on Russia will hinder its ability to create more weapons, if so, they will stop (this is only if Russia's new possible allies such as China, India or Brazil won't give Russia support). The ''rule-based order'' becomes meaningless when irrendentist countries such as Russia actively want to oppose it. I was reading the other day about Dugin's book on Eurasianism, which is fundamentally a marxist reading on history. They say the world order and all its signed treaties are in place to benefit ''the Western minority'', and that all unfavored countries should rebel in a Moscow-led coallition against the ''opressive'' Atlantic civilization. Basically advocating for a Russia-China axis to dethrone the West. Scarry stuff, this is the closest you can get to feeling what someone might have felt in Europe in the 1930s reading Hitler's Mein Kampf 

Eurasianism partly explains why Putin himself said Ukraine doesn't exist, Russia's ambigous relations with Turkey, not to say, the deeping of ties with China, Iran etc.

Interesting and at same time scary stuff... I just don't understand where marxism enters in all of this history plan... (With all the russian millionaires   oligarchs, and China basically depending on the rest of the world capitalism to buy their products). Anyways reading your comment just makes me establish parallels between Hitler and Putin. And when you really think about this, and what that Dungin book proclaims, no doubt you get a little scared. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

2 hours ago, Magui said:

Interesting and at same time scary stuff... I just don't understand where marxism enters in all of this history plan... (With all the russian millionaires   oligarchs, and China basically depending on the rest of the world capitalism to buy their products). Anyways reading your comment just makes me establish parallels between Hitler and Putin. And when you really think about this, and what that Dungin book proclaims, no doubt you get a little scared. 

The idea behind Marxism is the fight of the opressed against the opressor - in foreign affairs terms, the fight of the "underdeveloped" world against the opressor that is identified as the West. The idea is that the West is stealing the resources from its rivals and smaller nations and Russia needs to lead a coalition to take the power back to the opressed. 

Russia's irredentism today is a strange mix betwen far right nationalism and marxism, which is why you find Russian apologists from people in both political camps.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 4-5 July

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 5-6 July

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

I am wondering to what extend can the sanctions topple the Russian government if Putin has the second biggest economy as a circumstantial ally? When the URSS collapsed it did no major allies, Russia nowadays has warm relations with a powerhouse.

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Update 6-7 July