Putin invades Ukraine

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1) In the last 24 hours, the Russians continued their quest to subdue Mariupol, occupying more territory. Pockets of Ukrainian resistance still exist within the city as the Russians are killing the people that oppose occupation, using mobile crematoriums and targeting civilians (Mariupol is probably on a similar level to Bucha, but as Russians control most of the city, they are able to hide their crimes way better).

 

2) The Russians were still unsuccessful in advancing on the Izyum-Slovyansk axis. This axis of advancement is pivotal to Russia’s war effort, as it will likely be used for encirclement purposes. For this reason, the Russians are likely to resume operations here soon.

The Russians were unable to extend along the Donbas frontline as the Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian attacks. Specifically, the Russians want to occupy Popasna, Rubizhne, Nyzhnje and Novobakhmutivka in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

 

 

3) Even though the Russians are to large extend on the defensive in Kherson, they did launch few attacks against Ukrainian forces in the reclaimed land in the west (and north) of the oblast, to no success. 

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1) Not much has changed since yesterday. The Russians continue their effort to reach Slovyansk. In order to do this, they tried to occupy two settlements south of Izium, however they were unsuccessful in gaining ground in this strategically important area. That said, a heavier push from the Russian forces on the Izuym-Slovyansk axis is expected in the upcoming days.

2) Ukrainian forces repelled 4 attacks along the frontline in Donbas. The Russians continue to struggle to make significant gains in this part of the country, but new attacks on larger scales expected to happen.

 

 

3) Russian sources claim more Russian advancements in Mariupol, however parts of the city are still unoccupied (I won’t name them because I don’t want to propagate information about where remaining Ukrainian defenders can be located, for obvious reasons). The city is still likely to fall in the near future.

 

 4) In the south, fighting is taking place in the west of Kherson oblast, where the Russians seem to mostly/completely be on the defensive. In the previous month, the reason why Russians’ operations across the country were so disjointed was the fact they were commanded by 3 different commanders. They were now replaced with a single one, but it seems that the Russian campaign continues to be impacted by the effects of having 3 uncoordinated axes of advancement. Russian forces in the south of Ukraine might not have a clear picture on what their next step is (they may either plan on eventually advancing towards Zaporizhia/ Dnipro, or towards Mykailv/Odesa etc).

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1) Since yesterday, not many note-worthy things happened. Despite attacks on all major settlements in the west of the Donbas region, the Russians were unable to occupy any more territory in eastern Ukraine. Nothing important happened in Kharkiv region, however, a bigger attack directed on the Izyum axis is expected to take place sooner or later.

 

 

2) The situation in Mariupol is unclear, but the city is still expected to fully be occupied by Russian forces in the near future. Reports of chemical weapons being used here may be true, as Mariupol is completely encircled by the Russians so the city is closed off to the international community and any outsiders that may attempt to gather proof.

 

 

 3) Ukrainians launched a counter-attack in a settlement north of Kherson.

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Only minor things happened over the last day too.

1) According to ISW, Russian forces are very unlikely to begin an offensive directed on Kharkiv. The only direction in which significant fighting is taking place is along the Izyum axis, where the Russian launched some attacks meant to expand towards Slovyansk. They were successful in occupying one settlement. The Ukrainians claim to have launched counterattacks in 2 occupied settlements close to Kharkiv.

 

2) Multiple smal-scale attacks also happened in Donbas. The Russians did not gain ground here.

 

 

 

3) The reports of Mariupol completely surrendering to the Russians propagated by Russian sources are wrong and likely propaganda. Against all odds, there are still pockets of Ukrainian resistance within the city. Mariupol defied all expectations, but is not completely clear for how long it can hold on still.

 

 

4) There is fighting going on in the west of Kherson.

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As opposed to the previous days, today was absolutely note-worthy and a day that may even prove to be a historical day - because of the sinking of Moskva.

 

1) In terms of what is happening on the ground, the Russians failed to expand along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis. The weather will likely make the terrain here muddy, so this would be an advantage for Ukrainians.

2) The Russians attacked settlements along the frontline in Donbas, with no success. However, local Russian insurgents claimed the Ukrainian retreated around Marinka.

 

 

3) The situation in Mariupol is still bad. ISW can’t confirm any territorial changes, but the city is likely to fall in the near future.

 

 

4) Ukrainian sources claim Ukraine regained several settlements across Kherson in unspecified locations, fighting is taking place west of Kherson.

The sinking of Moskva was a historical event and may even trigger international geopolitical repercussions. Moska was a symbol of the Russian Navy, involved in the occupation of Snake Island back in February and the most advanced ship the Russians had. The way it was destroyed undermines Russia’s naval abilities and may mean NATO will act increasingly bold in the Black Sea (which in all honesty is actually worrying - there are reports of Turkey closing the Bosphorus straits for ships entering the Black Sea). According to some, the sinking may mean Ukraine may be able to even take back Crimea (a possibility that was never really considered before, though this may also be a rushed conclusion). It also puts Odesa in a more secure position.

[AkariGaga 1,252]

Why is Moskva important?

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3 hours ago, AkariGaga said:

Why is Moskva important?

In my understanding it was (past tense) in the command of the entire war effort in the Black Sea. Plus Russia has only 3 ships of this kind, the other 2 being far away and unreacheable (side note: Despite having such a large coast to 3 oceans, Russia feels borderline landlocked. Most of its coasts freeze during winter, the Baltic and Black Seas are almost enclosed by straits, the Caspian Sea is actually a lake and the Pacific is on the other side of Eurasia). 

Secondly, it was a symbol and the way it got destroyed is was a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. In February, Ukrainian soliders on Snake Island went viral telling a ship ''Go **** yourself''. It seems that Moska was that ship in question. The sinking of it is a great propaganda tool, not to say that it comes as US seems to be heading towards moving NATO ships in the Black Sea and with Turkey potentially restricting the acces of Russian warships to the Bosphorus even more.

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As Russian artilery levels off parts of Ukrainian cities (buildings, trees, lives etc), Russia's new concern are the trees painted with the colors of Ukraine's flag in Bruxelles. This is so embarassing. 

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After the sinking of Moskva, Russian state TV increased its propagandistic discourse and started new strikes against Kyiv (the biggest ones since the Russians retreated).

1) Not much has happened on the ground though. Ukraine fought back Russian attacks directed at Slovyansk (SE of Izyum) and Barvinkove (SW of Izyum). Another minor update is that Russian forces solidified their foothold in one village in the north-west of Izyum. Seeing it on the long-term, if Mariupol does eventually fall+ if the Russians are successful in taking Donbas, is possibile that Russia will try to occupy the entire south-eastern portion of Ukraine east of the Dnieper. 

 

 

2) Russia continued the daily attacks along the frontline in Donbas, however it was unable to actually occupy new land. The situation in Mariupol continues to deteriorate.

 

 

 

3) Fighting is still taking place in the west of Kherson, yet neither side made any particular gains in the last 24 hours.

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1) In the last day, the Ukrainian repelled a Russian attempt to drive on through an Ukrainian-controlled village south of Izyum. It’s possible that the Russian will launch more small-scale attacks in this region in preparation for a possible large-scale one. The potential Izyum-Slovyansk axis would likely be  vulnerable to counter-attacks in the same way the supply line linking the east of Kyiv and Sumy were in the first month of the war, so, the Russians may try to establish more axis of advancement (one going south-west from Izyum and one going south-east, to Slovyansk).  ISW says the Russians may not wait for Ukrainians to be encircled, but simply occupy the land little by little until Ukrainians are pushed out from eastern Ukraine.

2) Despite heavy fighting, the Russians weren’t successful in taking any territory in Donetsk and Luhansk. Settlements such as Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and Popasna remain subjected to daily attacks from the Russian forces. There are reports that the Russian might try to take Avdiivka in the south of Donbas in order to link up with the troops in Izyum that are also trying to get closer by taking Slovyansk. So, a possible new arch of occupation would be Avdiivka- Kramatorsk- Slovyansk- Izyum. The geography (muddy terrain punctuated by small rivers) and demography (settlements with higher population compared to northern Ukraine) means Donbas could be hard to take.

3) There is still resistance in Mariupol, however, it’s likely that the city will fall soon. The so called Donetsk People’s Republic will possibly declare victory and start a military occupation regime (there are reports that the Russians opened an office of the United Russia Party in the city).

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Is Putin just gonna continue with this invasion for years to come? What happened to the peace treaty talks? It’s like there’s no end in sight, feel so sorry for Ukraine. 

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During the last day, offensives mostly happened in eastern Ukraine (in the east of Kharkiv close to the Russian border & in Donbas).

 

1) The Russians made no territorial gains along the Izyum axis (no attacks happened in this region). There is proof of separatist troops from Luhansk fighting here, aka outside the claimed territory of the so called Luhansk People's Republic, futher proof that they are simply Russian puppets, if anybody even doubted it.

 

 

 2) The Russians didn't capture any territory in Donbas. In fact, Ukrainians pushed them back a few kilometers east of Kreminna. The large-scale battle for Donbas is, however, still expected to come and what is happening now is seen more like a prelude for the future offensives.

 

3) The Russians reduced the number of pockets of resistance within Mariupol. According to the Institue for the Study of War, the city may fall in a week, however, insurgency/ anti-occupation movements will probably still take place even after Mariupol is formally conquered. 

 

 

4) In southern Ukraine, resistance from the locals is still likely happening and minor fighting is taking place west of Kherson.

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The battle for Donbas oficially began. After a month of mostly limited, small-scale attacks along the frontline, the Russians started actively using troops that previously fought for Kyiv. According to the Institute for the Study of War, all units that previously fought in the north are damaged and in low morale (given that they have a fresh memory of loosing the battle of Kyiv) so the offensive is likely to be similar in terms of succes with Russia's previous moves (personally, given the demographics of this region, I believe they may have a bigger advantage here compared to in the north).

 

1) In the north-east of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces recaptured several villages and settlements in Kharkiv region: both around Kharkiv oblast capital and around Izyum. In this region, Russian lines of communication are vulnerable, however, less so compared to how they were in the north. Ukrainians might be succesfull in retaking some of this area, but it will be much more difficult considering Russia's border is much closer.

 

 

 

2) The Russians attacked Marinka, Rubizhne and Popasna (it's possible the Russians will strike in not one, but multiple axes of advance). Ukrainians reppelled some attacks, but the Russians were able to break though the line of defence in various places. The Russians reached Kreminna, Zarichne and Tors'ke.

 

 

3) There is still fighting going on in Mariupol and according to Ukrainian sources, Ukraine launched limited counter-attacks against the Russians. However, the city is still expected to fall in the near future.

 

 

 

4) Ukrainian sources claim they liberated several villages in Mykolaiv region. Fighting is also going on in the west of Kherson, without major territorial changes.