Putin invades Ukraine

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23 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

I'm really started to think he's going to go after something big despite being overextended in Ukraine. He's totally lost his mind and the Russian State TV keep mentioning Moldova, Georgia, Poland, etc....This is just another sign of the recklessness

I want to think they operate with a level of precision that doesn't allow them to miss any milimeters in these times. Because the more they strike the border, the more chances for them to miss their target. Also - something that needs to be said (although many probably avoid to) - is that is in Ukraine's advantage if Russia misses their target and accidentally hits NATO. There may be a chance leaders from Kyiv may act accordingly and deposit military equipment/supplies/vechiles in such places (or do this because they view borders as safe places, that Russia won't dare to attack). This is understanable to an extend, but I really would rather not see the war turn global..

About propaganda - In Russia's view, all former URSS countries belong to Moscow. This is something that has been ingrained in people's minds, but avocating for wars to regain them is something only the extremists do. The danger comes when Putin himself is an extremist and nationalist, and all his ''next'' wars are bigger than the previous ones. First it was Transnistria in the 90s, then Crimea+Donbas in the 10s, now the whole Ukraine. What's next, the Baltics? 

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(If Twitter is right - this is where the ship was sunken)

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During the last days, Ukrainians recaptured various settlements in the north and east of the country. This not only prevents the Russians from advancing further in certain locations, but likely disrupts their plans all together. The Russians are losing ground in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson, the situation is only reversed in Mariupol.

 

1) Nothing notable happened in the NW of Kyiv. According to the ISW, Russia wants to encircle Kyiv and continue with the fighting, but is currently unable to do so because of their lack of troops. The Ukrainians regained a notable amount of territory to the east of Kyiv.

 

 

2) In Chernihiv region, despite being occupied the Russians, civilians and the local administration in Slavutych refuse to cooperate with the Russians.

 

 

 

 

3) The Ukrainians launched successful attacks in Sumy Oblast. In some places,they pushed the Russians back to Russia.

 

 

4) Ukrainians started their quest to retake the town of Vilhivka next to Kharkiv while Izium is still under Ukrainian control. The Ukrainians also regained a notable amount of territory in the east of Kharkiv. The Russians seem to focus on the region south-east of Izium, perhaps sill seen by them as a gateway towards the south?

 

 

 

5) The Ukrainians repelled 7-8 attacks in the Donbas region, preventing the Russian proxies from advancing. Moreover, the Russians faked a video where Russian soldiers claimed to have liberated a village around Rubizhne - city that is, in actuality, still under Ukrainian control.

 

 

6) The Institute for the Study of War doesn’t have information on the change of the frontlines in Mariupol, but still expects the city to fall in the upcoming weeks. 

 

 

 

7) The Russians are no longer able to advance in Kherson. The amplified opposition of the locals prevents the Russians from exercising their control over what they have already captured.

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In the last 24, the Russians were only able to advance into Mariupol and continued to retreat from various locations across Ukraine.

 

 1) Ukrainians recaptured Irpin in the NW of Kyiv. This is pretty significant, and comes in string of successful counter-offensives over the last week.

 

 

 

2) Ukrainians did not regain new territory in the east of Kyiv, but defended what they have regained previously from new attacks.

 

 

3) The Russians destroyed bridges in Chernihiv region - which is a telling sign they fear an upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive in this part of the country, and are trying to hold on to the territory they captured up to this point.

 

 

4) Nothing important happened in Sumy, but the Russians retreating from this region might mean the Russians might attempt to consolidate their control and advancements in other areas.

 

 

 

5) No major changes in Kharkiv

 

 

 

6) The Russians continued their attempt to capture the western towns of Luhansk Oblast, without much success. It’s possible that capturing the whole of Luhanks and Donetsk is explicitly now one of Russia’s main and most important objectives.

 

 

 

7) The Russians failed to capture more settlements along the frontline in Donetsk. 

 

 

8) The Russians continue to advance into Mariupol, city which will likely capitulate in a matter or weeks.

 

 9) The Ukrainians prevented the Russians from advancing towards Hulyaipole and Zaporizhia in the south. The Russians didn’t launch any offensives in Mykolaiv and Kherson, where they struggle to contain the resistance of the population. There have been reports that Mykolaiv region was completely liberated, however, this is not completely true as some settlements still have Russian presence.

[TheSlash 14,539]

Idk if it was already said, but thank you @FfFfFfFF for always giving updates   .

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Romanian authorities will start handing out potassium iodide pills to its entire population (~16M). They are meant to be taken in the first hours after exposure to nuclear radiation (this is for now simply a preventine measure).

https://www.ziuaveche.ro/actualitate-interna/alexandru-rafila-saptamana-viitoare-va-incepe-distributia-pastilelor-de-iodura-de-potasiu-catre-populatie-315413.html

[TaylorSwift 162,474]

 

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Ukraine might be willing to accept neutrality if Russia guarantees it will respect its territorial integrity (again) and nations like UK, China, US, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland or Israel will co-sign the treaty. 

 

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Azerbaijan might use the power vacuum created by Ukraine's invasion to seize more land from the now unattended Nagorno-Karabah region (area internationally recognized as Azeri territory, de facto Armenian satelite state with Russian military presence). It was suggested that Georgia might also use the opportunity to push the Russians out of Azhazia and South Osethia (rather unlikely though). The situation becomes worrying considering that Iran threatened to intervene if Armenia is attacked and that Turkey (NATO member) and Azerbaijan are in a mutual defense pact. The conflict needs to NOT escalate in this part of the world.

 

 

[Phoenix Rises 954]

i hope this ends soon. I feel bad for all the poor souls that lost thier lives .

[r4therupbeat 1,587]

10 hours ago, Teletubby said:

 

isn't he the p*g that was supporting concentration camps for the lgbtq in Russia?

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 1) The Russians might have finally came to terms with the fact that they can’t take Kyiv and abandoned their plan to encircle the city. But they still attempt to mentain their control over occupied territory in the NW of the capital.

 

 2) Some Russian troops were seen leaving the area east of Kyiv. However, the Russians continue their attempt to encircle Chernihiv and there is still a significant Russian presence east of Brovary. It’s possible that the Russians retreated from Sumy to separate the lines of advancements  linking Kyiv with Chernihiv and Kyiv with Kharkiv, rather than to go to Donbass as it was previously suggested.

 

 

 

3) By conquering or rather bypassing Izium, the Russians might attempt to connect their occupation areas from Kharkiv with the ones in Donbas.

 

 

4) No major changes in Donbas, despite fighting taking place. Donbas is the region that became prioritized according to Russian official claims, so some still expect a heavy push from the Russians here. That said, the Kremlin has no word. They might as well have lied so they can launch surprise attacks in the north/ around Kyiv later. According to the Institute for the Study of War, despite the fact that the terrain of Donbas is flat and sparsely populated, capturing it would require a significant military effort that the russians may not have the resources for.

 

5) The Russians continued to advance into Mariupol. According to ISW, it’s likely the Ukrainians control was reduced to 2-3 pockets in the city’s center & it’s possible that the city will fall in a matter of days. But even if the city falls, there will be a strong resistance for months to come.

 

 

6) There were no significant changes in the south of Ukraine.

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According to Russian sources, Russian ''peacekeeping'' forces are now in control of Parukh (village in Nagono-Karabah occupied by Azerbaijan 1 week ago).

As a result of Azeri pushing into Nagorno-Karabah, one Russian MP asked his followers on Telegram if Russia should use atomic bombs on Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan then launched a criminal case and an international arrest warrant (For the record, the majority of the responders said no..).

Just another day in 2022.

[Magui 2,654]

@FfFfFfFF today 3 kids ( 6, 7 and years old) from Ukraine arrive at the school where i develop some occupational activities with the kids. I work there a few hours during two days. Those 3 souls broke my heart, cause they were so quiet, their eyes where so sad, the little girl was so scared and with tears in her eyes all the time. It's was their first day. I tried my best and overall i think it was a first good interaction ( i downloaded some translate app and managed). But the moment i enter my car i felt so sad for them, that I broke down. My hate for Putin sky rocketed, i can't conceive a world where that man won't suffer any consequence for all the damages and suffering he is causing. 

(Sorry for this rant, everyday i look up the news, ( and look up your updates) i look up for something positive, for Russia to wake up and put an end to that man, and today i can shake up those kids sadness from my mind, how they were happy with their dads and their friends in their country, and now have to endure a life away from everything that was home, safety and happiness). When you see this with your own eyes, when you feel their desolation in front of you it hits you so much harder.

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6 minutes ago, Magui said:

@FfFfFfFF today 3 kids ( 6, 7 and years old) from Ukraine arrive at the school where i develop some occupational activities with the kids. I work there a few hours during two days. Those 3 souls broke my heart, cause they were so quiet, their eyes where so sad, the little girl was so scared and with tears in her eyes all the time. It's was their first day. I tried my best and overall i think it was a first good interaction ( i downloaded some translate app and managed). But the moment i enter my car i felt so sad for them, that I broke down. My hate for Putin sky rocketed, i can't conceive a world where that man won't suffer any consequence for all the damages and suffering he is causing. 

(Sorry for this rant, everyday i look up the news, ( and look up your updates) i look up for something positive, for Russia to wake up and put an end to that man, and today i can shake up those kids sadness from my mind, how they were happy with their dads and their friends in their country, and now have to endure a life away from everything that was home, safety and happiness). When you see this with your own eyes, when you feel their desolation in front of you it hits you so much harder.

Displacement is perhaps war's most tangible and concrete effect. The majority of the people (percentage-wise) don't die and don't get wounded during war, but most are forced to leave their homes. This comes with trauma, distress, suffering. I feel bad for every kid (or adult) forced leave their hometown, but on the brightside, it gets better. The shock of living in a new country/ culture is hard to handle, especially if is out of a sudden. But people are able to adapt to new circumstance, children especially are maleable. They might be able to come back to Ukraine (though it's also possible the war will drag on for more months - sadly, it is what it is). Who knows, they might even choose to stay even if the war ends and bring their whole family there, at their own volition.