Putin invades Ukraine

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

1 hour ago, PartySick said:

Wild how long this has been going on but it seems like it was all very front loaded. This map doesn't look all that different from the ones posted in the very beginning.

Exactly! They grabbed the territories easiest to conquer first: the nuclear wasteland of Cernobyl + Snake Island (small rock in the Black Sea) + the southern region (big steppe in the reach of Crimea) + territories next to the Russian border. After this, everything stalled. We need to see if they even have the power to take any big cities, apart from Kherson, and Mariupol - if it eventually does fall. Experts say they likely don't have the combat power for that, unless they find ways to send more soldiers (for instance, though drafting their population ).

[PartySick 172,545]

11 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

(for instance, though drafting their population ).

No

[Phoenix Rises 954]

On 3/21/2022 at 11:09 PM, Ronk said:

On March 16 Biden promised to send more anti-tank weapons and drones to Ukraine.  Did the Ukrainian army receive those weapons yet?

yes but they say they need atleast 500 a day. The russians are using 80s tanks and 7k-16k have died and most are just young dudes who dont wanna fight who are just there cause they'd be in a gulag if they didn't go. So much death  And Ukraine can't trust the Russians even if they did negotiate anything cause during ceasefire's they have fired on civilians and committed war crimes and no they are using ammonia bombs like they did in Syria .  Zelensky has been using green screen in a couple of videos and that triggered conspiracy theorists  to say he ran to poland when he's most likely in a bunker and just can't go out in the streets when there's a bounty on his head and Russia can use AI and stuff to track him. 

[Phoenix Rises 954]

On 3/17/2022 at 10:31 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

A video of Igor Korotchenko (military expert and member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of Russia) talking about a potential invasion plan of the Baltcs is making rounds online. This happened at the end of last year on Russian state TV. Accoding to him, NATO radars will be hit first so NATO won't be alerted in time to intervene. The Russians would then occupy Gotland island (Suedish territory) and use it as some kind of a military and supply base. Then Russia could easily cut off the Baltics from NATO by occupying the Suwalki Gap, and by this point he expects the Baltic states to surrender and Sweden to give up Gotland.

Link

First of all, the media indisputably loves to exploit people's fears, and we've seen it with COVID. That said, I read the other day about a German military plane falling and plans for Hitler's invasion of the Low Countries being discovered by accident. I don't think any of this will become reality in the near future, but the parralels weirded me out. The Suwalki Gap is infamous for being NATO's Achilles' heel.

I'd be glad to be Australia , the only country you can't invade cause its not land locked. NATO would trigger article 5 if that happened. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

On 3/26/2022 at 11:30 PM, Ronald Allen said:

I'd be glad to be Australia , the only country you can't invade cause its not land locked. NATO would trigger article 5 if that happened. 

Well most European countries aren't landlocked either (as in, they have acces to the Planetary Ocean). But I get what you are saying, Australia is an extreme given that is completely surrounded by ocean. The bad news is that in this day and age all countries or continents can be invaded.  If the apocalyptic confruntation between NATO and Rusia (and/ or China) will, God forbid, take place, Australia will 99% be attacked. In fact, China has competing interests in the southern Pacific with the US. 

[Ronk 14,930]

1 hour ago, Ronald Allen said:

yes but they say they need atleast 500 a day. The russians are using 80s tanks and 7k-16k have died and most are just young dudes who dont wanna fight who are just there cause they'd be in a gulag if they didn't go. So much death  And Ukraine can't trust the Russians even if they did negotiate anything cause during ceasefire's they have fired on civilians and committed war crimes and no they are using ammonia bombs like they did in Syria .  Zelensky has been using green screen in a couple of videos and that triggered conspiracy theorists  to say he ran to poland when he's most likely in a bunker and just can't go out in the streets when there's a bounty on his head and Russia can use AI and stuff to track him. 

Then the west needs to send a lot more weapons to Ukraine.  Precedent is being set.  If Putin is allowed to take Ukraine it will be a green light for Putin to take the rest of the non-NATO European countries whenever he is ready.  Also, Putin only knows and understands strength.  He only respects leaders who show strength.  For this reason Ukraine should be given the fighter jets and tanks they want.  Not giving that to Ukraine shows cowardice and is another green light for Putin to take more countries down the line.  The west has it backwards.  WW3 is less likely to happen if you show strength to Putin, and is more likely to happen if you show him cowardice.

[Suuus 5,632]

3 hours ago, Ronald Allen said:

I'd be glad to be Australia , the only country you can't invade cause its not land locked. NATO would trigger article 5 if that happened. 

What happens when article 5 is triggerd?

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Kuril Islands are an archipalego of islands administered by Russia, of which 4 are claimed by US-allied Japan. 

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

8 hours ago, Suuus said:

What happens when article 5 is triggerd?

According to the Article 4 of NATO, an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all member states. So, in the hypotetical situation that Estonia or Polonia are invaded, this warrants a response from all NATO countries - including US, UK, Germany, France etc. The only time in history when Article 5 was triggered was after 9/11.

[LilyLark 10,213]

6 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Kuril Islands are an archipalego of islands administered by Russia, of which 4 are claimed by US-allied Japan. 

 

Honestly getting even more worried...Russia is already incredibly overextended and now they are doing stuff like this? It's irrational. And irrational sh*t like this can spiral....and it doesn't help that Shoigu has been missing and then they trotted him out in a less than convincing style.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

1 minute ago, LilyLark said:

Honestly getting even more worried...Russia is already incredibly overextended and now they are doing stuff like this? It's irrational. And irrational sh*t like this can spiral....and it doesn't help that Shoigu has been missing and then they trotted him out in a less than convincing style.

Seems like Russia is aiming to intimidate and send a hostile message to the West rather than to trigger an actual conflict. That said, things can spiral as Russia's borderlands include tense regions with unresolved conflicts (such as the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue in the southern Caucasus, the Japanese claims on Kuril Islands etc). 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Moscow Duma deputy proposes the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Poland, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Kazahstan.   

https://tv8.md/2022/26/03/un-deputat-al-dumei-de-la-moscova-propune-demilitarizarea-si-denazificarea-moldovei-si-altor-state/196351

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

The general picture of the last days is that of Ukrainians continuing to launch counter-attacks, while the Russians mostly focus on the defensive. The invasion stalled and not even the most subtle Russian bots and propaganda-spreaders should, at this point, be able to deny it.

 

 

1) Around Kyiv, the Russians are having a hard time maintaining their control over the captured territory. Ukrainians fight to regain control on Irpin and Hostomel (Ukrainian sources claim the Russians are being surrounded by Ukrainian forces in the former).

 

 

 

 2) The Russians occupied Slavutych in Chernihiv region, but retreated quite notabily in Sumy. Trostianets (the only district center occupied in that part of the country) is again under Ukrainian control.

 

 

 

 

3) Other than the Ukrainians regaining control on Mala Rohan and Vilkhivka around Kharkiv, nothing note-worthy happened on the eastern front.

 

 

 

 

4) The Russians failed to expand in Donbas. Their retreat in the NE might be indicative of the idea that they will reset their goals and only focus on Donbas, which is only 50-60% under Russian control. It's still unclear if this is domestic propaganda or a genuine change of decision though, but experts say capturing the remaining parts of Luhanks and Donetsk would make sense and is on par with their current capabilities. If Donbas is taken, the Russians might want to incorporate a land bridge linking it with Crimea, (that would also include Mariupol), so likely the South-Easern part of Ukraine is especially eyed by the Russians. This would make sense from a demographic point of view, as the south-eastern corner of Ukraine has the most Russophones.

 

 

 

5) Mariupol is unfortunately close to falling. Russian-back separatists DPR claim they opened police offices in some of the city's captured neighbourhoods. The Russians may reduce the Ukrainian forces to two pockets in central Mariupol in the upcoming days.

 

 

6) The Russians paused their attempts to expand in the southern regions. Moreover, they are slowly loosing their grip on the captured cities and towns in the region, including Kherson. Kherson was the first and only major city to fall, but Ukrainians might be able to retake it, given that the population opposes the occupation.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Russia sank an Ukrainian ship just few meters from Romania/ NATO's border.

 

[LilyLark 10,213]

5 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Russia sank an Ukrainian ship just few meters from Romania/ NATO's border.

 

I'm really started to think he's going to go after something big despite being overextended in Ukraine. He's totally lost his mind and the Russian State TV keep mentioning Moldova, Georgia, Poland, etc....This is just another sign of the recklessness