Putin invades Ukraine

[Suuus 5,632]

On 3/18/2022 at 6:45 PM, FfFfFfFF said:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-08/how-war-ukraine-could-get-much-worse This article talks about the possibility of the war escaladating into a NATO-Russia war.

Certain series of events (such as, Russia attacking NATO supply locations in Ukraine or Ukrainian camps in Poland or the Baltics) can trigger Article 5 of NATO. They say the nuclear potential may not prevent a conventional war from happening. The times we are living!

Oke i feel kinda scared now

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

2 hours ago, Suuus said:

Oke i feel kinda scared now

If you are religious, go to a church and pray/ confess/ take Eucharist (or do it even if you aren't). This is the most you can do, and keep your calm. As a Romanian, I decided to do all these things because the war feels like is in my backyard. There's lots of refugees where I live, I keep seeing planes, regarding the talks about Moldova being invaded - from the top floor of my university building I was literally able to see over the border with Moldova last week ). The fact that a full scale war is so close to home is naturally unsettling, yet in the end, a world war may or may not happen now, we don't know.

[Ronk 14,930]

On March 16 Biden promised to send more anti-tank weapons and drones to Ukraine.  Did the Ukrainian army receive those weapons yet?

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

As a whole, the Russians made little to no progress yesterday. Personnel and logistic problems, the dissipation of the surprise element & the increasingly muddy terrain make the Russians less likely to launch successful offensive moves, and Ukainians increasingly likely to defend their territory. As a result, there are rumors that Putin considers mobilizing Russia’s general population.

 

1) The only major Russian offensive in Kyiv yesterday happened in the east and resulted in Ukrainian victory. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia’s attack on Brovary was meant to be tactical and localized rather than the start of a full-scale offensive towards Kyiv. Very significantly though, the Ukrainians regained control of Makariv and a portion of land west of Kyiv (1) This comes after the Ukrainians made the Russians retreat in Mykolaiv a few days ago.

 

 

2) Nothing significant happened in the north-east of the country and the Russians failed to secure any new territory in Kharkiv or Izium, which was attacked again. 

 

 

 

3) There is conflicting information about what is happening in Donbass. While Russians forces claimed Russian proxies advanced 12km, Ukrainians say they defended the entire occupation line from all attacks launched by the Russians. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

 

4) Despite being in a critical situation, Mariupol still resists and is still under Ukrainian control. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians slowed down their gains in Mariupol for a third day in a row.

 

 

5) The Russians stopped advancing in Mykolaiv or the south-west of the country. The Russian Army faces, in fact, growing resistance and protests in this region. The Institute for the Study of War says that the need to ensure control over revolted areas might divert Russian forces from advancing elsewhere. 

 

 

6) Putin likely continues to pressure Lukashenko to join the war and open a new front in the north-west of Ukraine, but Lukashenko isn’t fond of the idea.

[LilyLark 10,213]

13 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

 

 

6) Putin likely continues to pressure Lukashenko to join the war and open a new front in the north-west of Ukraine, but Lukashenko isn’t fond of the idea.

From what I understand, Luka will get his as* overthrown again as people came so close to succeeding last time...if he tries to act any further. I've been following some journalists from Belarus and allegedly even the more pro-Russian pols are disturbed by how Belarus has basically lost all pretenses of sovereignty at this point.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

In the last 24 hours, the invaders were unable to make significant gains across Ukraine. On the contrary, Ukainians are the ones who regained territory in various places, as it was the case yesterday. It's possible that Russians troops of different axes of advancement compete for resources and are uncoordinated as a result. The failure of Russia's initial plan for a quick takeover (which should indisputable by now) means they will resort more to bombing and acts of terrorism and that they will try to push Russia's general population/ Belarus into the war.

 

 

1) Nothing major happened around Kyiv.

 

 

 

 

2) Nothing major happened around Chernihiv and Sumy.

 

 

 

 

3) The Russians paused their efforts to take Kharkiv and Izium in order to repair a broken railway connecting Kharkiv and Russia proper.

 

 

 

4) The Russians failed to capture new territory in Donetsk and Luhanks.

 

 

 

5) Russians and Checken forces claim to continue their advacements in Mariupol. Mariupol remains in critical situation, but holding on still.

 

 

 

6) The Ukrainians launched several succesfull attacks and reclaimed territory around Mykolaiv and Kherson. Ukrainian sources say the Russians retreated to 'unfavorable borders'.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

The last 24 hours were also marked by stalemeate and successful minor local counter-attacks launched by the Ukrainians. According to the Institute of War, it is possible that the Russians abandoned, for now, their plans to conquer more territory and focus on defending what they got.

 

 

1) Ukrainians continued to regain ground in the NW of Kyiv. It was claimed that Irpin is almost completely liberated and that the Russians suffered losses in Bucha and Hostomel. Also in the Kyiv region, the Ukrainians prevented a settlement to fall to the Russians.

 

 

 

2) Nothing major happened in the north-east of the country & the frontlines remained mostly the same.

 

 

3) Fighting continues to take place in Donbass, where Russian proxies push to expand westwards.

 

 

 

4) Russians' progress in Mariupol continues to be slow and uncoordinated. Even so, Mariupol remains the city with the biggest chances to be occupied in the upcoming weeks. If this will be the case, Russians would score a symbolic win. Even if the infrastructure in the city is destroyed, the city is of great strategic importance and allows Ukraine’s access to the Azov Sea. If Mariupol falls, the Azov Sea will become a Russian lake and the Russians would move part of their Caspian fleet here.

 

 

5) Nothing of importance happened in the southern region.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

Germany can't afford not importing gas from Russia, so is going to be interesting how this play out.

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

In the last 24 hours, nothing hugely important happened from the Russian side, however, the Ukrainians continue to fight back and, as the map suggests, regained ground in various places.

 

 ● The Russians unsucesfully attacked Brovary in the east of Kyiv. Despite fighting, the frontlines in the NW of the capital are static.

 

 

 ● The Russians resumed their attempt to encircle Chernihiv and solidy the link between the east of Kyiv and the North-East of the country.

 

 

 

 

● Nothing major happened in Sumy and Kharkiv wasn't attacked from the ground. However, Izium was attacked & Ukrainians defended it and even launched counter-attacks in previously lost territory in its general area.

 

 

● As confirmed by Ukrainians, the Russians advanced around Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region.

 

 

 

 

● In Donetsk oblast, the Russians also expanded (while Ukrainians announced they repelled the Russians out of 1 settlement in the region, 3 others are contested between Ukrainian and Russian forces).

 

● The Russians continue to gain ground inside Mariupol and even reached its city center. The new tactic of using loud speakers to spread misinformation (that Odesa fell, Ukraine surrenders etc) by the Russians is meant to demoralize the population.

 

 

● Ukrainians sank a Russian ship in Berdyansk (the biggest port city occupied by the Russians so far). This is pretty symbolical for the counter-offensive of Ukrainians, and sends the message that they are still willing to resist.

● Ukrainians continue their attempt to push the Russians to the east in Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. The Russians face protests and heavy resistance from the locals in Kherson oblast (oblast whose capital fell first and that is claimed by the Russians in its enterity). Acording to some sources, Ukrainians have repelled attacks on the Kryvyi Rih direction.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

Russian politician who proposed a partition of Ukraine between neighbouring countries just died.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of invading the Lachin Corridor (piece of land occupied by Russia) and Azerbaijan denies.

There are ways in this things could go wrong in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan has a defense pact with Turkey which is a NATO member, while Armenia is allied with Russia. It was rumored that Azerbaijan intends to push into Armenia during the 2020 war.

If this will happen, hypothetically, Russia would be obligated to intervene.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

During the last 24 hours, Ukrainians launched counter-offensives to the Russians who largely paused their operations to regroup. Russian Army's lack of personnel and supplies implies the invasion will get harder and harder the more inland they go and the more soldiers they loose.

 

NORTHERN UKRAINE

 

1) In Kyiv region, Ukrainians made some progess in Irpin. The Russians were unable to advance more toward Kyiv from the NW and all towns there are currentely contested.

 

 

 

 

2) In the region east of Kyiv, Ukraine regained Lukyanivka and several other settlements. According to some sources, the Russians retreated at least 25 km inland.

 

 

 

 3) The Russians continued their unsuccessful attempt to encircle Chernihiv.

 

 

 

4) Nothing of great value happened in Sumy, but Trostianets is contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

 

 

 

EASTERN UKRAINE

 

5) Russians lost ground in the east of Kharkiv. In their attempt to surround Izium, they tried to capture Kamyanka (in the south of the city).

 

 

 

6) After a few days of steady gains, the Russians slowed down their advacement in Donbas. The Russian General Staff emitted a false document implying's Russia aim during the first month was to capture the entire Donbas and nothing else. This is clearly false and nothing more than an attempt to save face. The goal was to force big cities/ Ukraine as a whole to capitulate, objective which failed (this is proved by the fact that fronts were opened all over Ukraine). When/ if the Russians occupy the whole of Luhanks and Donetsk, I'd say it's best for Ukraine to recognize their independence and ask for peace, because these areas are not coming back and allowing them to join Russia is a resonable price to pay for national and regional peace.

 

7) The Russians captured more of Mariupol. The city is unfortunaley the city with the biggest chances to fall in the upcoming weeks. However, the fact that a city so close to Russia's sphere of influence & ruled by Moscow for so long shows so much resistance is absolutely note-worthy.

 

 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

8) The Russians retreated from the west bank of the Dnieper in the south. Other than that, nothing important happened in Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv or Odesa - the land Putin calls ''Novorossiya''. This region means a lot to Russia due to geographical and historical regions. If Mariupol falls, then the Russians would control half of Ukraine's Black Sea coast. At that point, Russia would eye Odesa to complete what they have alteady started. If Odesa falls, the Russians would likely move towards Transnistria (break away state of Moldova) and towards  Budjak (if Romania wasn't in NATO, Danube Delta might have been in Russia's plans too). This is a discussion on Russia's end goals though, as right now they barely have the power to subdue Mariupol.

[Guest]

did u guys hear about this info that Putin is plannin on stopping the war on may 9th?

[PartySick 172,545]

3 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

During the last 24 hours, Ukrainians launched counter-offensives to the Russians who largely paused their operations to regroup. Russian Army's lack of personnel and supplies implies the invasion will get harder and harder the more inland they go and the more soldiers they loose.

 

NORTHERN UKRAINE

 

1) In Kyiv region, Ukrainians made some progess in Irpin. The Russians were unable to advance more toward Kyiv from the NW and all towns there are currentely contested.

 

 

 

 

2) In the region east of Kyiv, Ukraine regained Lukyanivka and several other settlements. According to some sources, the Russians retreated at least 25 km inland.

 

 

 

 3) The Russians continued their unsuccessful attempt to encircle Chernihiv.

 

 

 

4) Nothing of great value happened in Sumy, but Trostianets is contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces.

 

 

 

EASTERN UKRAINE

 

5) Russians lost ground in the east of Kharkiv. In their attempt to surround Izium, they tried to capture Kamyanka (in the south of the city).

 

 

 

6) After a few days of steady gains, the Russians slowed down their advacement in Donbas. The Russian General Staff emitted a false document implying's Russia aim during the first month was to capture the entire Donbas and nothing else. This is clearly false and nothing more than an attempt to save face. The goal was to force big cities/ Ukraine as a whole to capitulate, objective which failed (this is proved by the fact that fronts were opened all over Ukraine). When/ if the Russians occupy the whole of Luhanks and Donetsk, I'd say it's best for Ukraine to recognize their independence and ask for peace, because these areas are not coming back and allowing them to join Russia is a resonable price to pay for national and regional peace.

 

7) The Russians captured more of Mariupol. The city is unfortunaley the city with the biggest chances to fall in the upcoming weeks. However, the fact that a city so close to Russia's sphere of influence & ruled by Moscow for so long shows so much resistance is absolutely note-worthy.

 

 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

8) The Russians retreated from the west bank of the Dnieper in the south. Other than that, nothing important happened in Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv or Odesa - the land Putin calls ''Novorossiya''. This region means a lot to Russia due to geographical and historical regions. If Mariupol falls, then the Russians would control half of Ukraine's Black Sea coast. At that point, Russia would eye Odesa to complete what they have alteady started. If Odesa falls, the Russians would likely move towards Transnistria (break away state of Moldova) and towards  Budjak (if Romania wasn't in NATO, Danube Delta might have been in Russia's plans too). This is a discussion on Russia's end goals though, as right now they barely have the power to subdue Mariupol.

Wild how long this has been going on but it seems like it was all very front loaded. This map doesn't look all that different from the ones posted in the very beginning.