Putin invades Ukraine

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

On 3/16/2022 at 1:55 PM, FfFfFfFF said:

 

Since yesterday, the situation didn't change too much.

1) Kyiv is still defended. The city was only hit from the NW, situation that resulted in Ukrainians succesfully defending the capital still. The Russians likely don't have enough troops to encircle the city, which is partly why they try to send Syrian and Lybian mercenaries, Russian troops from Armenia, Central Asia etc.

 

 

2) Supply lines linking the east of Kyiv with Chernihiv and Sumy remain easy targets for the Ukrainian Army.

 

 

 

3) The Ukrainians want to push out the Russians from Trostianets - the only district center occupied in Sumy Oblast (1)

 

 

 

 

4) The Russians didn't score any major victories in Kharkiv & is unlikely that they will be able to bypass the city towards the heart of eastern Ukraine unless the city falls. 

 

 

5) The Ukrainian Army succesfully defended the towns in the west of Luhansk.

 

 

6) The Russians and their proxies scored limited gains in Donetsk (Russian sources talk about capturing 4 settlements, though this may be not be accurate). However, the death of a high-ranking general operating in the region is in favour of Ukrainians.

 

 

 7) The Russian advanced slightly around Mariupol too. Despite holding on still, it needs to be said that Mariupol is possibily the city with the biggest chances to fall in the upcoming weeks. 

 

 

 

8)  Zaporizhya will likely become a target if Mariupol falls. Russians want to create a line between Kharkiv and the southern front so Ukrainians will be encircles in Donbass.

 

 

● Mykolaiv remains in Ukrainian control, though is being hit by Russian shelling. Ukrainians claim they reppeled all Russian potential advancements to the cities in the region.

● Ukrainians attacked a Russian airfield in Kherson, destroying 7 helicopters.

● Despite recent activity there, the Institute for the Study of War says that a full scale attack on Odesa is still unlikely.

 

 

 10) New advancements from Belarus remain unlikely. 

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Several airplanes are leaving Moscow and heading towards Siberia in an unusual move. Let's hope this is the effect of potential revolutionary movements within Russia and not something else.

 

[bionic 50,111]

3 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Several airplanes are leaving Moscow and heading towards Siberia in an unusual move. Let's hope this is the effect of potential revolutionary movements within Russia and not something else.

 

Weren't there a load heading to the Middle East earlier

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

2 minutes ago, bionic said:

Weren't there a load heading to the Middle East earlier

I have no idea! Though I think that may also be related to the fact that Russia has to avoid European airspace and find new flight routes (?) These new flights having Siberia as a destination in particular aren't giving me the greatest of vibes.. 

[TaylorSwift 162,446]

 

Nazi Party was founded on 24 February in 1920. Did he mean that?

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

As usual, the countries most involved are the ones in close proximity with the conflict, which are also well-aware of Russia's expansionist tendencies. The fact that this could escaladate badly if implemented is another topic..

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-08/how-war-ukraine-could-get-much-worse This article talks about the possibility of the war escaladating into a NATO-Russia war.

Certain series of events (such as, Russia attacking NATO supply locations in Ukraine or Ukrainian camps in Poland or the Baltics) can trigger Article 5 of NATO. They say the nuclear potential may not prevent a conventional war from happening. The times we are living!

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Similar to previous days, the Ukrainians launched minor attacks to reclaim teritory across Ukraine. Nothing major happened from the Russian side and according to Ukrainian forces, Russians suffered many casualities.

 

 1) The Russians tried to regain previously lost territory in the NW of Kyiv, suffering heavy losses.

 

 

 

 

 

2) Ukrainians defended Chernihiv from two Russian attacks.

 

 

 

3) The terrain conditions in Chernihiv and Sumy (forested/muddy region) pose problems to the Russians that try to establish a link connecting Kyiv and captured territory in the east. Russian vehicles were seen in Okhtyrka.

 

 

 

 

4) Kharkiv is still in Ukrainian control, the attacks in the south of Izium makes it even more clear that the Russians want to bypass it and head towards Luhansk. According to the Institute for the Study of War, they are unlikely to succeed.

 

 

 

 

 

5) The Russians launched attacks on Rubuzhne and the rural area around it. It was reported that Rubuzhne fell to Russians today (March 18).

 

 

 

 

6) The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed Russian proxies advanced 4km and captured 4 settlememts in Donetsk. The Ukrainians repelled Russian attacks aimed to extend the frontline over Volnovakha.

 

 

 

7) The Russians continue to attack Mariupol and got somehow closer to the city center.

 

 

8) Mala Shisternyia in Kherson Oblast fell to the Russians. The Ukrainians attacked Russian-ocuppied Kherson capital oblast and even liberated 1 village. No major offensives happened towards Zaporizhia, but there is fighting in Mykolaiv.

9) Warships near the coast of Odessa may be meant to incite fear and be further used at Mariupol and not Odesa.

That said, it may be the case the Russian will concentrate their forces on Ukraine's Black Sea Coast and attempt to capture it as both a strategic and symbolic prize so they will have the upper hand during negociations. If Mariupol falls, Russians will succed in virtually annexing the whole easter coastline and connect it with Crimea. Odesa would be next in line- this is, however, all speculation. The Russians may not have a defined plan themselves at this point.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

 1) The Russians didn’t launch any major attacks on Kyiv yesterday. Logistic and personnel problems are likely the cause, together with the fact that the supply lines linking the east of Kyiv with seized territory in Chernihiv and Sumy are sporadically contested by the Ukrainian Army. Moreover, The Russians failed to completely encircle all big cities in the region (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy) and were stopped from advancing southwards of Kharkiv. Izium is also still under Ukrainian control, so it’s less likely they will succeed in joining the fronts in the north-east and south of the country.

 

2) The Russians still attempt to expand the frontline in Luhansk and capture Severodonetsk (one of the last remaining towns in the oblast, after Rubizhne was threatened yesterday). The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russians captured 90% of Luhansk Oblast’s territory.

 

 

3) The Russians continued to advance into Mariupol. Mariupol and Donbass are unfortunately the areas most likely to fall to the Russians in the upcoming weeks. 

 

 

4) Some sources claim the Russians are eyeing Zaporizhzhia. An attack on the city is especially to be expected if Mariupol falls. For the first time since the invasion began, the Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged occupying the whole of Dnieper's eastern bank as an explicit goal of Russia.

 

 

 

5) There was a significant counter-offensive of Ukrainians against the Russians around Mykolaiv.According to Ukrainian sources, the Russians were pushed back 10km and are now likely back to the border with Kherson. This is possibly the biggest counter attack of the Ukrainians so far. The Institute for the Study of War says this significant pushback might mean the attack on Odesa will not happen too soon.

 

[27monster27 15,864]

@FfFfFfFF Tagging you because this news is timed very eerily with the one you posted about jets flying to Siberia.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

27 minutes ago, 27monster27 said:

@FfFfFfFF Tagging you because this news is timed very eerily with the one you posted about jets flying to Siberia.

I personally don't think they are related, those jets seemed to move around the elites rather than regular people. Siberia is known for having antinuclear bunkers, so the immediat though of many was that.. you know. Though it most likely was related to the moves in Putin's inner circle and thank God for that!!

On the topic at hand, the Russian regime does have a tendency to send disidents and ethnic minorities to concentration camps in Siberia, people aware of Russia's history wouldn't be surprised if they move Ukrainians to remote places. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

The situation remained largely the same for a long time, and it will probably drag on without decisive events for longer. Fierce resistance from the locals, heavy casualties & the inability to occupy any big cities apart from Kherson in what is soon to be a month show that the invasion proved to be more costly that Putin even expected.

 1) According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians probably abandoned their initial plan of encircling Kyiv and now focus on defending their existing positions and occupying a radius that would allow them to send artillery to the city proper. This would require a distance of 25 km, and they are not that close to the city in all directions.

 

 

 

 

 2) In the North-East, the Russians are mostly trying to defend their previous gains. All oblast capitals in the region (Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv) are under Ukrainian control. It’s said that Poltava could be, from Russians' perspective, the ideal meeting point of their north-eastern and southern frontlines.

 

 

 

3) The previous information that Rubizhne fell to Russians was false. However, the town is under attack and was partially occupied by the Russian Army. Also in Luhansk, the Russians are attempting to extend their occupied territory around Severodonetsk - the other significant town still not captured.

 

 

4) The Russians made no substantial progress in Mariupol yesterday, though the Institute for the Study or War still assets that is possible the city will fall in the upcoming weeks (1)

 

 

 5) After the significant counter-offensive of the previous days, the Russians abandoned their plans to occupy the south-western portions of Ukraine (Mykolaiv and Odesa regions) and now attempt to advance towards Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhiya. A significant follow up to Ukrainians reppeling the Russians in that part of the country would be Ukrainians pushing the Russians east of the Dnieper, though that may not be realistical.

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Bosnia & Herzegovina (3M people, 27th largest country in Europe, almost landlocked) is the new threat to Russia's existence. 🤡

 

[27monster27 15,864]

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,120]

Overall, the situation remained similar to that of the previous days. The map has not changed too much as more local and minor attacks and counter-attacks happen all over the country. Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk) and Mariupol remain the area where the Russians were able to advance the most.

 

 1) Nothing major happened around Kyiv in the last 24 hours. The Institute for the Study of War still says the Russians are focused on defending the previously seized territory and likely preparing for future artillery attacks towards the city proper.

 

 

2) While the Russians were busy strengthening the supply lines linking the east of Kyiv with the other captured territory in the east, Ukrainians launched a successful counter-attack around Bovary, inflicting loses to the invaders.

 

3) Nothing significant happened in Kharkiv’s oblast capital, but the Ukrainians successfully defended Izium from a Russian takeover. The city is strategically important because by capturing it the Russians could cut off the Ukrainian forces in this area of eastern Ukraine with the rest of Ukraine. Russians troops from Luhansk and Donbass heading north could meet with Russians from the northern bits of the Kharkiv oblast heading south precisely in this town’s area , encircling the Ukrainian Army in this part of the country.

 

 

4) In Luhansk, the Russians captured one settlement around Rubizhne. The contested towns in the area (Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna) remain mostly under Ukrainian control.

 

 

5) The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Russian proxies advances 3km in Donetsk region.

 

 

6) The Russians continue to slowly establish a foothold in Mariupol, however during the last two days, their gains weren’t that significant. The city still shows resistance to a great extend.

 

 

7) The Russians didn’t launch (new) attacks on Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih or Zaporizhia. Moreover, the Ukrainians continued their counter-offensive around Mykolaiv. According to Ukrainians sources, the Ukrainians were successful in retaking even more territory in that part of the country.

 

8) For the first time, I see the idea of a new front being opened in the west of Ukraine (Volyn oblast) discussed as a real possibility. The Russian+Bellarusians armies could hypothetically aim to isolate Ukraine from NATO territory, however the fact that the Russians advancements stalled in all fronlines opened so far makes the Russians less likely to attack from a new direction. Either way, the belligerent attitude of Poland (country that was historically a subject of Russian aggression) makes some wonder what will their reaction be if they see the Russian Army get so close to their border.