Putin invades Ukraine

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1)  After three especially quiet days, Russians launched limited attacks in the NW of Kyiv on Irpin and Bucha, both of which remained under Ukrainian control. Nothing happened in the east of Kyiv likely because of supply issues on the Russian side. Occupying the cities around Kyiv is very strategically important for the Russians because they are located within a radius that allows the Russians to send artillery towards Kyiv proper. So, capturing them would put Russia in a position of power. 

 

2) In the North-East of Ukraine, Russians are still trying to establish a firm foothold and consolidate their control over the region (1) On the same note, there are reports that the Russians want to solidify their control over the occupied territory all around Ukraine by constructing fortifications and seizing farming machinery.

 

3) Ukrainians regained ground around Kharkiv, blocking future Russian advancements towards Dnipro and Zaporizhia, but the Russians are trying to advance south, bypassing Izium. It would be ideal for the Russians to reach a point where the north-eastern and southern frontlines would connect. They may try to push this potential line connecting the frontline in Kharkiv with the frontline in Luhansk further west so they can encircle the Ukrainians in this easter part of the country. This is a well-known Russian tactic and eventually, the Russians are likely attempting to expand along the Dnieper and encircle the Ukrainian army east of the river too.

 

4) In Luhansk, the Russians launched unsuccessful attacks on Severodonetsk, however they scored minor advancements in other places.

 

 

 

5) More major are Russia’s claimed advancements in Donetsk, as Russian sources claim they expanded the line of occupation 15-17 km inland since February 24 and that they captured a total of 90 settlements. However, Russians suffered heavy losses yesterday in Avdiivka and were forced to withdraw.

 

 

6) Mariupol, still not taken by the Russians, continues to be shelled and attacked on the ground. (2)

 

 

 

7) After a quiet period, Russian forces attacked Mykolaiv again. In the southern Bug region, Russians want to take control of several unoccupied settlements and even succeeded in capturing a chunk of territory north of Kherson (3)

 

 

8) The Russians also came back to the peninsula around Skadovsk.

 

 

9) The road linking Mykolaiv with Nova Odesa (used for the Russians to find a crossing over the Bug) is still fully in Ukrainian control. Occupying this area would be crucial for reaching Odesa. There are some signs that the attack on the city might come soon (4) An attack on Odesa would mean the Russians are interested in the southern Bessarabia region, and to capture that they would need to come dangerously close to Moldova's border.

 

10) The possibility of Russia attacking from the north along a new axis is small.  Increased military activity along the Belarus border seems to be aimed at distracting Ukrainians from defending Kyiv rather than preparing a new axis of advancement, especially when they struggle on most of the already formed ones (5)

 

According to the Institute for the Study of War, major offensive from the Russians are unlikely to happen in the upcoming week, because as the deploying of Syrian fighters shows, they currently lack the resources required for that.

[TaylorSwift 162,474]

 

[LilyLark 10,213]

Jes*s the fact that the Russians seem to be targeted journalists on purpose....

[FATCAT 60,888]

According to Joe Scarbourough on Morning Joe (MSNBC), the US is getting a lot of important and unknown military weapons systems to Ukrainians. The MiG's are a public debacle, but behind the scenes a LOT is being moved in.

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Nothing major happened in the last day & Ukrainians were even able to regain ground in some parts of the country.

 

1) The Russians didn’t advance towards Kyiv, on the contrary Ukrainians repelled attacks in the NW of Kyiv and recaptured one settlement claimed by the Russians. Brovary, in the east of the capital, is still under Ukrainian control. 

 

 

2) Chernihiv is still surrounded, but not fully. Sumy and Kharkiv are both still under Ukrainian control. 

 

 

3) In Donetsk, there is fighting around Horlivka, as the Russians want to expand the frontline westwards, this being the place where they face the most resistance. They also aim to occupy the entire Luhanks region.

 

 

4) Russian-led separatists claimed they occupied three settlements north of Mariupol, however the Ukrainians repulsed attacks on the city proper. 

 

 

 

 

5) Russians claim to have occupied 100% of the Kherson region. This is unlikely to be the case, but this is the first oblast the Russians claimed to seize in its entirety. 

 

 

6) Nothing happened in or around Mykolaiv. According to the Pentagon, despite recent activity there, the attack on Odesa is likely not imminent (1)

It’s said that Putin might have been a victim of his own propaganda. He likely believed the Kremlin-propagated view that the Ukrainians are ethnic Slavs decisively pro-Russia oppressed by a pro-Western regime they despise and that the Russians Army would have been welcomed as liberators by the local communities. In light of this, Russia didn’t expect to face resistance, and this is the reason why 3 weeks later and almost no major city fell, Kyiv is still defended, the Russians face logistic and personnel-problems. It’s also said that Russia perhaps abandoned some of its initial goals, and urgently wants to capture Kyiv so they can claim a sort of symbolic victory and put an end to this. That said, pro-Russian sentiment is more prevalent in the south of Ukraine, and this is visible in the speed that they advanced there.

[Magui 2,654]

@FfFfFfFF what does he want? What does Putin want? He enter a sovereign country, destroyed people's life's, destroyed their cities, send Ukrainians out of their own country...like how can he expecte that the Ukrainians accept this? Does he think, life in Russia seems so appealing to Ukrainians, like the Russians live oppressed under Putin regime, they can even protest in peace? It's just so desperate to watch all this. Who's going to pay for all the destruction, all the life's that were lost? 

My only concern and sadness is that when all it's done, nothing will happen to Putin, he will save his face and keep running Russia like nothing happened...and the Ukrainians will have to live with all the damages. 

I keep thinking how can this be possible these days, i live in Portugal, i can't imagine Spain invading us, i can't imagine Spanish people wanting to do us harm, i can't imagine us want to cause harm to them. I see us, as people with close values, close culture, etc. It's unthinkable to me how Russians and Ukrainians being close culturally speaking, Russia allow this, Putin brainwashed everyone .

[Horny Chicken 10,935]

 
What an incredible display of bravery. She, an editor at Russia’s biggest news channel, risked her life to do what is right. She even picked the best time (7pm), ensuring it would reach the most people possible. Please be safe. 

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37 minutes ago, Magui said:

@FfFfFfFF what does he want? What does Putin want? He enter a sovereign country, destroyed people's life's, destroyed their cities, send Ukrainians out of their own country...like how can he expecte that the Ukrainians accept this? Does he think, life in Russia seems so appealing to Ukrainians, like the Russians live oppressed under Putin regime, they can even protest in peace? It's just so desperate to watch all this.

The danger of living in an echo-chamber of your own propaganda and manipulation is that all say or believe will came back to you because everybody close to you will need agree with you. At one point, lies become realities in an authocrat's mind. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an effect of COVID isolation too. Seeing the international reaction to such brutality such be a cold shower for Putin and his acolytes, instead I fear it will further feed his paranoia that the West hates him and plans an attack on him.

44 minutes ago, Magui said:

Who's going to pay for all the destruction, all the life's that were lost? 

The most ridiculous thing of this all is that instead of having the Russian army be met with flowers, what happened instead is that the Ukrainians will now be decisively anti-Russia and will reject everything coming from Moscow. Wherease in the past pro-Russian tendencies were present in corners of Ukraine's society, the Ukrainian nation is now irreversibly alienated. Not to say, it's very likely that Russia will not have the funds to rebuilt the country. If what will be left of (western) Ukraine will become a Western financial protectorate, this will be the reverse of Putin's goal. He ended the world worder we had for 70 years, and got this in return.

[Magui 2,654]

1 hour ago, FfFfFfFF said:

The danger of living in an echo-chamber of your own propaganda and manipulation is that all say or believe will came back to you because everybody close to you will need agree with you. At one point, lies become realities in an authocrat's mind. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an effect of COVID isolation too. Seeing the international reaction to such brutality such be a cold shower for Putin and his acolytes, instead I fear it will further feed his paranoia that the West hates him and plans an attack on him.

The most ridiculous thing of this all is that instead of having the Russian army be met with flowers, what happened instead is that the Ukrainians will now be decisively anti-Russia and will reject everything coming from Moscow. Wherease in the past pro-Russian tendencies were present in corners of Ukraine's society, the Ukrainian nation is now irreversibly alienated. Not to say, it's very likely that Russia will not have the funds to rebuilt the country. If what will be left of (western) Ukraine will become a Western financial protectorate, this will be the reverse of Putin's goal. He ended the world worder we had for 70 years, and got this in return.

We never knew what exactly was happening in Russia. I knew Putin rule the way he wanted but i was blinded by how he controlled everything and everyone in Russia. How stupid of me. Somehow i grow up thinking cold war was over, and something like this wouldn't happen in Europe ever again. I even had some sympathy and curiosity regarding Russia. Now unfortunately aggression, blindness and pity it's all that comes to mind, it will take decades to change this. It never crossed anyone's mind  in Europe to attack Russia, in fact I thought that good relations were established. I knew that Ukraine had problems with Russia, but i never thought it would come to this. Russia to me it's a dictatorship like the one that happened in my country until 1974, when the people and the army finally managed to put it to an end.

It's so scary how life as we know, our liberty to choose, to protests, to try to change an develop our country the way we think it's better, can be stolen from us like is happening to Ukraine right now. 

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Poland suggested NATO to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, but NATO denied.

 

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Ukraine's and Moldova's power grids are (finally) connected to Continental Europe.

[Joaco95 1,631]

 

[Regina PhaIange 1]

17 hours ago, iku iku iku said:

 
What an incredible display of bravery. She, an editor at Russia’s biggest news channel, risked her life to do what is right. She even picked the best time (7pm), ensuring it would reach the most people possible. Please be safe. 

It's all staged. She has to pay a fine in the amount of 30,000 rubles while other russians are getting 15 years in prison for the same. Plus russia doesn't have a live TV. They have 9 or 10 time zones. My grandma from russia and my mom who has been visiting her for decades, they both said a long time ago that they don't have it.

russia is doing that to divert attention from Ukraine. How many horrific things they did that day while everyone was talking about that woman. And she, by the way, was writing propaganda about Ukraine since 2013-2014.

When russians are doing something you like or saying something you agree with its because they're playing with you and want you to believe in their propaganda.

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A video of Igor Korotchenko (military expert and member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of Russia) talking about a potential invasion plan of the Baltcs is making rounds online. This happened at the end of last year on Russian state TV. Accoding to him, NATO radars will be hit first so NATO won't be alerted in time to intervene. The Russians would then occupy Gotland island (Suedish territory) and use it as some kind of a military and supply base. Then Russia could easily cut off the Baltics from NATO by occupying the Suwalki Gap, and by this point he expects the Baltic states to surrender and Sweden to give up Gotland.

Link

First of all, the media indisputably loves to exploit people's fears, and we've seen it with COVID. That said, I read the other day about a German military plane falling and plans for Hitler's invasion of the Low Countries being discovered by accident. I don't think any of this will become reality in the near future, but the parralels weirded me out. The Suwalki Gap is infamous for being NATO's Achilles' heel.