Putin invades Ukraine

[Oriane 22,778]

23 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

An Ukrainian drone flew over the airspace of 3 NATO countries (Romania, Hungary and Croatia) and fell in Zagreb.

Don't you mean Russian drone? 

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

10 hours ago, Oriane said:

Don't you mean Russian drone? 

They thought it was Russian at first, but turned out to be Ukrainian. Thankfully, because a Russian drone invading NATO space didn't sound too good. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

Eerie vibes

 

[TaylorSwift 162,471]

Yavoriv is only 16km (10 miles) from Nato member Poland

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

20 hours ago, FfFfFfFF said:

 

 

1) Yesterday was another slow day. No significant events happened in the NW of Kyiv (possibly because of logistical problems on the Russian side), but the Russians were able to push the occupation line closer to Kyiv’s eastern borders.

 

2) The Russians resumed their attempt to encircle Cherniv and attacked some settlements around the city. The lines of communication connecting troops stationed east of Kyiv and in Sumy are, again, contested and easily targeted by the Ukrainians that want to cut off the supply line. The Russian control of this area is very fragile and thin.

 

 

3) Ukrainians launched a counter-offensive in Kharkiv (1), while the Russians supposedly occupied some northern suburbs of Izium. The Institute of War argues that the Russians seem interested in bypassing Kharkiv and launching attacks on Dnipro and Zaporizhya, confirming my older guess they they seek to join all frontlines and occupy the eastern bank of the Dnieper.

 

4) No attacks happened in Luhanks, therefore the lines of occupation stayed the same. 

 

 

 5) It was reported that the Russians captured some of Mariupol’s eastern suburbs, however, the Ukrainians successfully defended two towns in the north that the Russians claimed to have already been occupied (so, you might count them as retaken). The Institute for the Study or War says is likely that the Russians will attempt to capture the city through shelling and sporadic ground attacks (2).

 

 

6) In the south, the Russians made some advancements and captured two settlements south of Zaporizhya. Despite occupying a part of Dnieper’s west bank yesterday (the town of Mylovne), it seems that the Russians are mostly interested in expanding along river’s east bank. However, the resistance showed by Mariupol likely makes Russians delay the attack on Zaporizhya. 

 

 

7) Perhaps unexpectedly, the Russians left Skadovsk and the surrounding peninsula (3)

 

 

8) Nothing happened in the Mykolayiv area. The oblast capital is still under Ukrainian control and this plays a role into why Odesa wasn’t attacked. Odesa’s strategic importance for western Ukraine is very similar to Mariupol’s importance for eastern Ukraine/ Azov Sea region. If Russians do indeed want to completely isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea, they would certainly need to attack this city.

 

 

 9) The recent bombardments in the Western half of the country (in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lutk) seem to be attempts to prevent NATO military aid from entering the country. They do not mean that the Russians are interested in this area strategically or territorially.

[TaylorSwift 162,471]

 

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

3 hours ago, Teletubby said:

 

https://fb.watch/bJVFAcbxdZ/ 

A witness on video who was brought to the hospital. 

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/was-china-betting-on-russian-defeat-all-along/ This article talks about potential reasons why China showed initial support to Russia which later pulled out. They are saying is possible that China wanted Russia to embark into a failed war so Russia will end up weak enough to become a Chinese satellite. If Russia loses the war, it will have no choice but to align with China according to China's conditions, and China is especially interested in Siberia's natural resources. The article also says that if an unlikely chain of events will occur and a pro-Western regime will takeover Russia, China might march into Siberia itself and occupy it. The alliance between China and Russia isn't based on true strategic friendship, but common dislike for the US and China has no issue seeing Russia weakened, on the contrary, it would love to see Russia integrated into its sphere of influence. 

[LilyLark 10,213]

23 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/was-china-betting-on-russian-defeat-all-along/ This article talks about potential reasons why China showed initial support to Russia which was later pulled out. They are saying is possible that China wanted Russia to embark into a failed war so Russia will end up weak enough to become a Chinese satellite. If Russia loses the war, it will have no choice but to align with China according to China's conditions, and China is especially interested in Siberia's natural resources. The article also says that if an unlikely chain of events will occur and a pro-Western regime will takeover Russia, China might march into Siberia itself and occupy it. The alliance between China and Russia isn't based on true strategic friendship, but common dislike for the US and China has no issue seeing Russia weakened, on the contrary, it would love to see Russia integrated into its sphere of influence. 

I absolutely believe it. Allegedly the Chinese government was never happy with the territorial border that this map lines out..

Also Russia has been causing issues in CAR and Kazakhstan...both places with the Silk Road initiative. A weaker Russia means they have to stop messing around in those countries.

[Dojo 19,823]

1 hour ago, FfFfFfFF said:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/was-china-betting-on-russian-defeat-all-along/ This article talks about potential reasons why China showed initial support to Russia which later pulled out. They are saying is possible that China wanted Russia to embark into a failed war so Russia will end up weak enough to become a Chinese satellite. If Russia loses the war, it will have no choice but to align with China according to China's conditions, and China is especially interested in Siberia's natural resources. The article also says that if an unlikely chain of events will occur and a pro-Western regime will takeover Russia, China might march into Siberia itself and occupy it. The alliance between China and Russia isn't based on true strategic friendship, but common dislike for the US and China has no issue seeing Russia weakened, on the contrary, it would love to see Russia integrated into its sphere of influence. 

 

i was thinking they were still supporting Russia behind the scenes but this makes sense.

on the other hand china should be making a move on Taiwan soon, they can't afford to lose this momentum that Russia and Ukraine is giving them, the world is divided.

[bionic 50,111]

1 hour ago, dojo said:

 

i was thinking they were still supporting Russia behind the scenes but this makes sense.

on the other hand china should be making a move on Taiwan soon, they can't afford to lose this momentum that Russia and Ukraine is giving them, the world is divided.

China has a lot more to lose from economic sanctions

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

3 hours ago, dojo said:

 

i was thinking they were still supporting Russia behind the scenes but this makes sense.

on the other hand china should be making a move on Taiwan soon, they can't afford to lose this momentum that Russia and Ukraine is giving them, the world is divided.

That might be the case, but you have to keep in mind that the West (US, UK, EU/NATO) is more united than ever. For the first time since the Cold War, Europe and America are able to align themselves in front of a common threat and in many ways, NATO regained its initial purpose. 

However, you are also right, the world as a whole is divided, having Russia, China and Iran on the other side of the barricade. The world is a powder keg with many unresolved conflicts that can degenerate over the long-term. I don't mean to be alarmist, but the invasion of Ukraine might mark the post-WW2 world order coming to an end. After WW2, the fear of nuclear destruction stopped any side from crossing any definitive red lines and Europe was spared from significant multi-country wars ever since. But the tensions remained there and this is a worrying reality that we all need to acknowledge.

[FfFfFfFF 58,125]

On 3/13/2022 at 3:38 PM, FfFfFfFF said:

 

During the last 24 hours, the Russians concentrated their forces mostly on Donetsk and Mariupol - a key, strategic city that they need to occupy before they move a significant amount of troops anywhere else. Russian are seemingly adopting an increasingly aggressive attitude towards Belarus in the attempt to formally push it into the war. Besides this, Russia is sending Syrian and Libyan mercenaries and deploying soliders stationed in Armenia, Nagorno-Karabah and the Far East, things which, according to the Institute of War, are meant to generate a pool of low-quality replacements for their losses (1)

1) Nothing significant happened around Kyiv. The grand, powerful attack on Kyiv, expected during the first days of the war/ when the 60km long convoy was travelling towards the city didn't take place. Moreover, we are now 3 weeks into the war and the city is not even completely encircled. It light of previous information, it may be the case that the Russians lack the resources to launch a large-scale attack now, so they are opting for smaller attacks instead. The city of Irpin, in the NW of the capital is 70% under Ukrainian control (2)

2) The Russians are still attempting to consolidate their supply lines linking the Russian troops stationed east of Kyiv with Cherniv and Sumy. The supply lines face continuous conter-attacks from Ukrainians. Just like Kyiv and other oblast capitals in the NE, Kharkiv is still under Ukrainian control. And so is Izium, in the south of Kharkiv, which reppled a Russian attack yesterday. 

 

3) The Russians expanded in Donetsk region quite notabily, and Volnovakha was occupied. Russian officials claimed the Russian army captured some of Severodonetsk's suburbs. They seem to prepare for more attacks on the city, as it's one of the last significant settlements in Luhanks that are still unoccupied.

 

4) The major offensive of the day happened in the north of Mariupol, where Russians captured 4 settlements. West of Mariupol, Russians are gathering troops around Zaporizhia for a possible future offensive towards the city, however Mariupol's resistance gets in the way of launching attacks on other major cities in the region. 

 

5) In Russian-occupied Kherson, locals gathered to protest in big numbers (3). According to the city's mayor, Russians wanted to hold a refenderum to proclaim an independent republic in Kherson. This may reveal what Russia's initial strategy was (aka to broke up Ukraine into pieces and likely allow the newly formed republics to further vote to be incorporated into Russia).

 

6) The attack on Yavoriv, 10km from the Polish border, was meant to disrupt the flow of Western military aid coming into  the country. Symbolically, it also served as very agressive message towards NATO. This is a video of the attack filmed from Poland, country visited by the American VP just a few days prior. 

[Guest]

Russia only has 14 days left to use their forces according to an expert 

[TaylorSwift 162,471]

The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia were travelling to Kyiv by train on Tuesday to show support for the country on behalf of the EU, the first foreign leaders to visit the Ukrainian capital since Russia invaded last month.