Putin invades Ukraine

[Ronk 14,930]

17 minutes ago, AnnaNicoleSmith said:

 

Will the Ukrainians get them before Ukraine falls to Putin?

[TaylorSwift 162,474]

5 minutes ago, Ronk said:

Will the Ukrainians get them before Ukraine falls to Putin?

they won't fall, they can't fall

[Ronk 14,930]

4 hours ago, TheOriginalOne said:

So much for the possibility that Putin will ever be charged with war crimes.  Even the United Nations is afraid of him.

[Ronk 14,930]

1 minute ago, Teletubby said:

they won't fall, they can't fall

They can't fall to save all the non-NATO countries in Europe from a Putin takeover.  But will they fall?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ronk said:

They can't fall to save all the non-NATO countries in Europe from a Putin takeover.  But will they fall?

Russia can't win, there's zero alternative ending for them where they win. Their economy is in shambles, and they used most of their capacity. What else can he do? He miscalculated everything, all he has is nukes, and he can't even risk that. He has all the world against him. How can Russia ever win? I see no winning, it's only a matter of time before we see how he shot himself in the foot. Point is, he could even have russians against him in the end, the world and his own people. This could be the end of Putin, the beginning of something else

[Ronk 14,930]

1 minute ago, AnnaNicoleSmith said:

Russia can't win, there's zero alternative ending for them where they win. Their economy is in shambles, and they used most of their capacity. What else can he do? He miscalculated everything, all he has is nukes, and he can't even risk that. He has all the world against him. How can Russia ever win? I see no winning, it's only a matter of time before we see how he shot himself in the foot. Point is, he could even have russians against him in the end, the world and his own people. This could be the end of Putin, the beginning of something else

I agree with everything you say, but there is one catch.  If he takes Kyiv and replaces Zelenskyy with a puppet, he wins even if he can't capture most of the country.

[FfFfFfFF 58,128]

Hopefully more countries will follow

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,128]

On 3/8/2022 at 10:55 AM, FfFfFfFF said:

Not a lot has changed since yesterday. Except Kherson, all oblast capitals/ major population centers are still under Ukrainian control.

In Kharkiv region, The Russians were unable to seize Izium (1) and the Ukrainian army regained control of Chuhuiv (2). In Luhansk, the frontline remained the same (really the best defended area in the entire Ukraine).

In the south, the Russian Army might be attempting to find ways to bypass Mykolaiv, move over the Bug river and head towards Odesa (3). The Russians reaching Odesa, capturing the Budjak region area and eventually meeting up with their troops in Transnistria would put Moldova at risk. 

Since yesterday, the Russian advanced the frontline around Kyiv and reached Bucha. The precendent of the Checken War implies that new ground attacks on the capital are to be expected after around 1 week of bombardments. Russians are currently heading to Kyiv from the west and east. (1)

In the east, Izium (city in Kharkiv region, but close to Donetsk and Luhanks) is under siege currently, as Russians seem to want to secure that area. The Russians launched attacks and/or occupied almost all towns in Luhanks, except for Sievierodonetsk which is still under Ukrainian control. The Russians are increasingly combative in Mariupol. (2)

All major cities except Kherson are still in Ukrainians' hands.

[Magui 2,654]

@FfFfFfFF ( when and if you have time) what's your opinion on the conflict right now? And what chances you think Ukraine has on the negotiations? 

[TaylorSwift 162,474]

 

[FfFfFfFF 58,128]

51 minutes ago, Magui said:

@FfFfFfFF ( when and if you have time) what's your opinion on the conflict right now? And what chances you think Ukraine has on the negotiations? 

I think it's pretty clear that Russia has a high chance of winning the military intervantion (though is unclear how long they can maintain any control over a hostile population conducting an insurgency). What seems to be happening is that Putin is not winning the way he wanted, as in 2 weeks' time they virtually couldn't take control of any big city (not even the ones close to their borders, and not even the Rusophone ones). They failed to a big extend, and Ukraine proved to be way more resistent than everybody was expecting. Still, even though the invasion was far from being a quick takeover, this doesn't mean that Russia can't win if they use their full force.

In terms of what is happening more specifically, based on how Russia avoided Western Ukraine, I think they are not specifically interested in that region, however they are interested in capturing Odesa and eventually Budjak. For this reason, I still think the only way Moldova can obtain security is by joining Romania, and this plan should be already on the table behind the closed doors in Bucuresti and Chisinau right now. 

I don't think the negociations will lead anywhere at this point, because Russia still has many demands that are likely unacceptable from Ukraine's perspective (like permanent neutrality, which would rather mean being in Russia's sphere of influence indefinitely and allowing the Kremlin to decide Ukraine's foreign policy), but I think Ukraine should absolutely cede Crimea and Donbas to Russia, if they demand, as those territories are already lost and unlikely to come back. Russia can pretend this is the goal they had in mind all along to save face (even though is false) and the war should ideally be over at this point. But I realistically think the war will last longer than this.. 

[Sarah H 4,376]

Absolute evil 

 

[Monster Voices 1,024]

On 3/8/2022 at 6:52 PM, 27monster27 said:

A lot of people are saying that this may be too far.

Of course it is too far! To deny potentially life-saving medication to a person because a politician abstained from a vote is insanity. ****ing winky face .... 

[caulixtla 2,170]

21 hours ago, Ronk said:

I agree with everything you say, but there is one catch.  If he takes Kyiv and replaces Zelenskyy with a puppet, he wins even if he can't capture most of the country.

If that happens, whoever Putin replaces Zelenskyy with will be treated with about the same level of admiration as Vidkun Quisling had (read: very little) when the Nazis took over Norway. [1]

[1] Hitler - Putin comparisons during this war are, as per Godwin himself, not Godwin law violations:

 

[Ronk 14,930]

15 minutes ago, caulixtla said:

If that happens, whoever Putin replaces Zelenskyy with will be treated with about the same level of admiration as Vidkun Quisling had (read: very little) when the Nazis took over Norway. [1]

[1] Hitler - Putin comparisons during this war are, as per Godwin himself, not Godwin law violations:

 

I agree nobody would respect a puppet Putin appoints, but the world would be forced to acknowledge him because the world is afraid of Putin.  NATO is afraid of him, and even the UN doesn't want to call it a war.  Putin might as well declare himself King of the Earth.  A benefit of being a homicidal maniac dictator with his finger on the nuclear button.  Everyone is afraid to cross him.   It's the reason Ukraine will never get the fighter jets they so desperately need.  Nobody wants to be seen by Putin as the country that provides them to Ukraine.  I hope I'm wrong, of course.