djBuffoon 12,239 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 The good news, Biden doesn't need Florida's electoral votes the way Donald needs them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabeoz 7,915 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, caulixtla said: Nate Silver says that, among independents in Florida (people without a party preference), it’s 49% Biden - 43% Trump according to recent polls. That combined with crossover voting (people voting for the other party) should be enough to win hopefully. We’ll see tonight. I do think Florida is a total tossup at this point but I’m hopeful for a Biden victory there. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabeoz 7,915 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, Lucas said: Let's hope they'll vote for Biden lol... Now it's also crazy to read that 1/4 of elligible voters didn't vote in 2016 lol, that's so many people... It’s closer to 1/3 I believe.the US has some of the lowest voter turnout in the world. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregJA 5,555 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 This yer the higher turnout actually helps trump as there was a higher dem turnout in the midterms and for trump to win he needed to counter and have a massive turnout and it’s happening now it could mean anything - welcome to 2020 but it bodes better for trump currently Mr. No Award Winner 2020 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jill 31,812 Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, GregJA said: This yer the higher turnout actually helps trump as there was a higher dem turnout in the midterms and for trump to win he needed to counter and have a massive turnout and it’s happening now it could mean anything - welcome to 2020 but it bodes better for trump currently I'm not sure I'm following. The majority of Americans lean Democrat, that's the reason why the Republicans haven't been able to win the popular vote since the past century. A higher turnout usually means the Dems will win, but in the case of a purple state like FL you never know. However I don't understand your 2018 comparison. Former First Lady of the United States. Now card-carrying member of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chic 20,830 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 My husband voted for Trump in the 2016 election. Today he voted for Biden and blue all the way down the ballot. We can do this! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, gabeoz said: That combined with crossover voting (people voting for the other party) should be enough to win hopefully. We’ll see tonight. I do think Florida is a total tossup at this point but I’m hopeful for a Biden victory there. It’s a just under 1% edge for Biden if we have 2016’s polling error in Florida again. Trump needs more than a 2016 polling error to win Florida, and there are good reasons to think the polls are more accurate this time around. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 173,116 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, gabeoz said: Higher voter turnout tends to favor dems, but in the end its Florida so who knows Florida is immune to wave years, that's one thing to remember. In 2018 when Dems obliterated their GOP opponents left and right, we put Republicans in every seat But yeah, turnout ALWAYS favors us so this is a good sign. Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Biden doesn’t need Florida but Trump does. I want Biden to get Florida so this ends tonight. Another thing: If Biden gets GA + NC, it’s over for Trump, even if Trump gets Florida. Edit: Current numbers are from That’s 4149144 Republican-by-party, 3957268 Democrat-by-party, and 2597260 no-party. Now, Nate says Biden gets 91% of Dems, 49% of no-party, and 9% of Republicans. Trump gets 7/43/89 percent of those: Running those numbers, I get this: Republican: 5086568.72 Democrats: 5247194.24 Here’s the script in Lua for anyone who wants to run this themselves: ----------- R = 4149144 D = 3957268 I = 2597260 print("Republican: ",R*.89+I*.43+D*.07) print("Democrats: ",R*.09+I*.49+D*.91) ----- My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BradleyCooper 2,305 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Floridian here. I have little faith in Florida but fingers crossed we don’t eff this up Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I’m seeing 5,247,194 votes for Biden vs. 5,086,568 votes for Trump in Florida, and that’s not including up-to-date Miami-Date (sapphire Blue) numbers. Fingers cross that this ends early tonight! Edit: Those numbers are 47.5% Trump - 49.0% Biden, a 1.5% lead. I speculated 48.3% Trump - 49.9% Biden based on using 2016 undecided voter allocations with Florida polls in 2020. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jill 31,812 Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, caulixtla said: I’m seeing 5,247,194 votes for Biden vs. 5,086,568 votes for Trump in Florida, and that’s not including up-to-date Miami-Date (sapphire Blue) numbers. Fingers cross that this ends early tonight! Edit: Those numbers are 47.5% Trump - 49.0% Biden, a 1.5% lead. I speculated 48.3% Trump - 49.9% Biden based on using 2016 undecided voter allocations with Florida polls in 2020. According to 538, predictions for FL's popular vote was a difference of around 2% favoring Biden, so I guess this is within the margin? I don't understand much about statistics lol Former First Lady of the United States. Now card-carrying member of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 538’s numbers are 69% chance Biden wins, 31% chance Trump wins. Based on weighted polling averages, they are seeing 48.4% Trump - 50.9% Biden (with margin of error, of course). If we have 2016’s polling error in Florida, Biden still has a 0.7% edge in Florida. I got 48.3% Trump - 49.9% Biden in Florida on Sunday from: * Taking the best recent polls from Florida * Sorting them by Trump/Biden/Undecided * Giving 66.6% of the undecided votes to Trump (that’s what happened in 2016) * Giving 33.3% of the undecided votes to Biden (again, as per 2016) I’m getting 47.5% Trump - 49.0% Biden in Florida based on current per-party voting and Nate Silver’s numbers of how those numbers split up in to actual votes based on polling numbers. If you prefer cards, I’m seeing a house being shaken up (the White House), and a man with authority (Biden) looking at a new venture (being president). My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulixtla 2,170 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Updated calculated numbers: Republican: 5128900.39 47.6% Democrats: 5279944.55 49.0% Republicans are catching up, but not quickly enough (assuming Nate Silver’s projected vote split by party) Also, deep blue Broward county in Florida is at 77.4% Democrat turnout. It was 74.7% turnout in 2016. My music: https://caulixtla.com/music Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabeoz 7,915 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, caulixtla said: Updated calculated numbers: Republican: 5128900.39 47.6% Democrats: 5279944.55 49.0% Republicans are catching up, but not quickly enough (assuming Nate Silver’s projected vote split by party) Also, deep blue Broward county in Florida is at 77.4% Democrat turnout. It was 74.7% turnout in 2016. I think Biden is doing really really well in Florida. Registered republican votes are slowing down quite a bit and wont hit the advantage the GOP finds it needs to win (GOP wants 3.5%, rn we're looking at about 1.9%) With less than 45 minutes until polls close, it's going to be hard for republicans to bounce back. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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