Trump Leading Among Likely Voters in FL and AZ: ABC/WaPo polls

[PartySick 172,535]

This poll must be an insane outlier

AZ if shifted well in Biden and Kelly's favor and FL is a dead heat with Biden ever so slightly above in most polls.

1 hour ago, Cody James said:

Being a Floridian myself all I f’n see if Trump signs. Was only a few weeks ago I see Biden followers showing up with flags and signage. I am in Tampa/St. Pete, but you would think these cities were conservative based off the MAGA presence. It is very disheartening.  

I see plenty of quiet Biden support out on demonstrations. Remember, MAGA people are loud while sane people are not

We just did a sign waving for Biden in my conservative town and got a bunch of honks, cheers, and people coming up saying stuff like "it's so nice to see this" etc. Only a couple jeers from Trumpies

Y'all should join local Democrat groups and help get the vote out. We could win FL easily if we mobilize

Also, it might be controversial to share this here, but one of the women that was with us is Cuban and from South FL. Cubans do not care about socialism. She says they only support Trump because "they all see themselves as white, even my own dad"

[HorusRa2 5,005]

59 minutes ago, Franch Toast said:

Eh, there are other states aside from Arizona and Florida anyway. Biden can win without taking those states. He's spending a lot of time focusing on the midwest, which Hillary didn't. I'm in a swing state that went to Trump last time, and I'm pretty sure Biden will get it this time. 

My 71-year-old stepfather has never voted in his life, but yesterday he registered to vote and requested an absentee ballot. He said I persuaded him. There is hope. 

Yes; however, if Trump wins AZ and FL, he can lose WI and MI and still win the election assuming the other states stay the same as 2016 (which they appear likely to be). Whereas Trump losing Florida would mean he has to win all 3 midwest states and if he lost Arizona as well he would still lose even if he won all three midwestern states. I don't think it's appropriate to disregard the importance of these two in combination with FL, MI, WI & PA. 

[Franch Toast 27,737]

12 minutes ago, HorusRa2 said:

Yes; however, if Trump wins AZ and FL, he can lose WI and MI and still win the election assuming the other states stay the same as 2016 (which they appear likely to be). Whereas Trump losing Florida would mean he has to win all 3 midwest states and if he lost Arizona as well he would still lose even if he won all three midwestern states. I don't think it's appropriate to disregard the importance of these two in combination with FL, MI, WI & PA. 

Oh, of course not! I’m trying to be optimistic while at the same time doing my part to ensure that Trump loses. 

[Brainiac 11,171]

This poll is clearly an outlier when compared with the many other recent polls out of those states. But of course this is the one that will get all the attention.

[Whispering 18,865]

I’ll go with fivethirtyeight:

As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, Sept. 22, Joe Biden has a 77 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election, while President Trump still has a 22 in 100 chance. Despite the fact that polling has been telling the same old story, Biden’s chances have ticked up in recent weeks, largely because we are getting closer to the election and Biden is continuing to get some good state polls. 

 

 

[Whispering 18,865]

19 minutes ago, Brainiac said:

This poll is clearly an outlier when compared with the many other recent polls out of those states. But of course this is the one that will get all the attention.

@PartySick We should have a separate main thread for polls, like we had in 2016. One main thread worked better than posting individual polls every other day. 

[PartySick 172,535]

1 hour ago, Whispering said:

@PartySick We should have a separate main thread for polls, like we had in 2016. One main thread worked better than posting individual polls every other day. 

We're supposed to

It hasn't been posted in since Feb though

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

6 hours ago, PartySick said:

This poll must be an insane outlier

AZ if shifted well in Biden and Kelly's favor and FL is a dead heat with Biden ever so slightly above in most polls.

I see plenty of quiet Biden support out on demonstrations. Remember, MAGA people are loud while sane people are not

We just did a sign waving for Biden in my conservative town and got a bunch of honks, cheers, and people coming up saying stuff like "it's so nice to see this" etc. Only a couple jeers from Trumpies

Y'all should join local Democrat groups and help get the vote out. We could win FL easily if we mobilize

Also, it might be controversial to share this here, but one of the women that was with us is Cuban and from South FL. Cubans do not care about socialism. She says they only support Trump because "they all see themselves as white, even my own dad"

That last part of the comment Cubans do not care about socialism isn't true. I have Cuban neighbors behind me next to me on either side and in front of me. Most Cubans care about socialism. My mom's boyfriend talks his head off about socialism.nyou turn on radio Mambi where most of the Cuban Republicans get their political information from and it's all socialism communist this and that. 

 But I do think they see themselves as white Europeans instead of Latino. That part is pretty obvious. 

https://www.univision.com/radio/miami-waqi-am

[BillieGOAT 5,272]

8 hours ago, gabeoz said:

Florida isn’t that surprising tbh, I expect Trump to win Fl. Counting on Biden’s big lead in the rust belt  

I’m from Pennsylvania (one of the rust belt states) & Biden’s stance on coal is NOT doing him any favors here. I’d be surprised if he wins PA

[PartySick 172,535]

6 minutes ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

That last part of the comment Cubans do not care about socialism isn't true. I have Cuban neighbors behind me next to me on either side and in front of me. Most Cubans care about socialism. My mom's boyfriend talks his head off about socialism.nyou turn on radio Mambi where most of the Cuban Republicans get their political information from and it's all socialism communist this and that. 

 But I do think they see themselves as white Europeans instead of Latino. That part is pretty obvious. 

https://www.univision.com/radio/miami-waqi-am

I was just relaying what she said as a Cuban from Miami. Good to know though. I've certainly not spent enough time in Miami/South Florida to know what people are like there (aside from the terrifying driving).

I wish they would realize Biden is far from a socialist though...which is either good or bad depending on who you ask

[pachinko 10,753]

Who still supports Trump? 

[PartySick 172,535]

4 minutes ago, BillieGOAT said:

I’m from Pennsylvania (one of the rust belt states) & Biden’s stance on coal is NOT doing him any favors here. I’d be surprised if he wins PA

I wonder if they realize the coal industry is still shrinking rapidly under Trump

I still say miners, oil workers, etc should be given first dibs on federally funded programs to train them in an eco-friendly industry.

I'm sure they'd rather be techs that install solar panels on roofs than ditch diggers sucking in noxious gas and dust for a living. They just need the opportunity to bridge the gap between leaving a coal job and starting a green one.

[BillieGOAT 5,272]

1 minute ago, PartySick said:

I wonder if they realize the coal industry is still shrinking rapidly under Trump

I still say miners, oil workers, etc should be given first dibs on federally funded programs to train them in an eco-friendly industry.

I'm sure they'd rather be techs that install solar panels on roofs than ditch diggers sucking in noxious gas and dust for a living. They just need the opportunity to bridge the gap between leaving a coal job and starting a green one.

I agree completely!! Coal is huge in southwestern PA/West Virginia and its not that this part of the country is emotionally attached to coal, it’s that we need jobs!! If the government had programs to train these workers in eco-friendly industries like you said it would be no problem to get rid of the industry. It’s all about incentive structures.

[SissyFromSpace 20,884]

8 hours ago, Cody James said:

Being a Floridian myself all I f’n see if Trump signs. Was only a few weeks ago I see Biden followers showing up with flags and signage. I am in Tampa/St. Pete, but you would think these cities were conservative based off the MAGA presence. It is very disheartening.  

Same here and I'm in those exact locations as well. See them everyday. I hate it here.

[SissyFromSpace 20,884]

8 hours ago, HorusRa2 said:

I'm near Lakeland and I see the very same thing. I've only seen one Biden/Harris sign to date. 

ooop another floridian? hey sis

 

and yeah...this blows. I hope Biden prevails in the end ...