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Predict Chromatica’s first week sales


ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY

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BawBaw
2 minutes ago, Miaou said:

it shows nothing with Gaga

PI was a biggest flop than SL and Joanne still pulled 200K SPS the first week in the US

Her streaming power has improved a lot 

SL reached #2 on Spotify US the day of the release so the GP is actually interest in her work. 

 

But I agree with you that 250K+ SPS is delulu 

1st day afterwards it tumbled down HARD

SL impacted negative her hype because it's a BAD song it did damage instead of creating hype :madge:

 

Why Joanne pulled over 200k SPS :

1. It was released in Q4

2.Moved BIG pure sales .....something that's impossible now as the pure sales died + physicals unavailable due to the pandemic

3. Joanne was release after a mere 4 weeks of PI so PI didn't have the time to kill all the hype for the era + it came and it go 

What I wanted to point is that after PI the album dropped really fast 

4. It had an AMAZON deal for 3.99$ for 1 day in US 

5. The genre of the album was more prone to pure sales seeing constantly how country /folk/soul album move pure units 

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LilyLark
4 minutes ago, Miaou said:

it shows nothing with Gaga

PI was a biggest flop than SL and Joanne still pulled 200K SPS the first week in the US

Her streaming power has improved a lot 

SL reached #2 on Spotify US the day of the release so the GP is actually interest in her work. 

 

But I agree with you that 250K+ SPS is delulu 

I was going to add the success of singles doesn't necessarily translate to album sales. Harry Styles is just now having a top ten hit...the highest single he had for Fine Line didn't even crack the top 15 before the album was released. And that was with A LOT of promo and a younger fan base that streams....and yet his album sold over 400k the first week.

Gaga's fan base is older and tends to buy physical copies, and physical sales still count quite a bit more. Plus, as you said...her streaming has improved & the Blackpink fans will help in that area. I'd be shocked if she had under 200k, unless she's forced to release the album ASAP because of leaks.

*People keep acting like SL was some huge flop, but in reality it was a success for a pop song in this day and age (top 5, then top 20 i believe, then top 40 for a while). DSN by Dua is an exception, not the rule. Katy couldn't even chart revealing her pregnancy in a MV, Ariana's post TUN singles didn't crack the top ten, and even Billie's Bad Guy...which had so, so much press...only reached #1 for a week or so.....etc.

 

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LilyLark
4 minutes ago, BawBaw said:

1st day afterwards it tumbled down HARD

SL impacted negative her hype because it's a BAD song it did damage instead of creating hype :madge:

 

Why Joanne pulled over 200k SPS :

1. It was released in Q4

2.Moved BIG pure sales .....something that's impossible now as the pure sales died + physicals unavailable due to the pandemic

3. Joanne was release after a mere 4 weeks of PI so PI didn't have the time to kill all the hype for the era + it came and it go 

What I wanted to point is that after PI the album dropped really fast 

4. It had an AMAZON deal for 3.99$ for 1 day in US 

5. The genre of the album was more prone to pure sales seeing constantly how country /folk/soul album move pure units 

You don't have to like SL, but it received good reviews.... I mean, The Guardian, NYT (which usually hates her), Pitchfork, etc. all gave it a good review.

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LilyLark
7 minutes ago, Twitter said:

Assuming Chromatica is the second coming of Born This Way:

With COVID - 200K

No COVID - 250-300K

Yours is the most reasonable guess imo based on her past sales, the COVID-19 situation, the Blackpink/Ariana factor, the critics being positive about SL even if some of the fans weren't (if the album also gets good reviews, that will help the buzz the first week), etc.

Worst case scenario is 150k/Best case scenario is 350k imo.

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BawBaw
2 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

I was going to add the success of singles doesn't necessarily translate to album sales. Harry Styles is just now having a top ten hit...the highest single he had for Fine Line didn't even crack the top 15 before the album was released. And that was with A LOT of promo and a younger fan base that streams....and yet his album sold over 400k the first week.

Gaga's fan base is older and tends to buy physical copies, and physical sales still count quite a bit more. Plus, as you said...her streaming has improved & the Blackpink fans will help in that area. I'd be shocked if she had under 200k, unless she's forced to release the album ASAP because of leaks.

*People keep acting like SL was some huge flop, but in reality it was a success for a pop song in this day and age (top 5, then top 20 i believe, then top 40 for a while). DSN by Dua is an exception, not the rule. Katy couldn't even chart revealing her pregnancy in a MV, Ariana's post TUN singles didn't crack the top ten, and even Billie's Bad Guy...which had so, so much press...only reached #1 for a week or so.....etc.

 

no it wasn't no matter how u spin it 

Even J&D would have gone top5 with the post ASIB hype and the streaming push it had +MV the same day 

IT gone like 5-30 in 2nd week....like....it's clear how the song resonated with the GP and her fanbase 

IT REMANS A BAD / DATED SONG  in the same category with PI 

2 songs that impacted negatively their parent albums ....end of with cult classics and other futile names of those songs 

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LilyLark
1 minute ago, BawBaw said:

no it wasn't no matter how u spin it 

Even J&D would have gone top5 with the post ASIB hype and the streaming push it had +MV the same day 

IT gone like 5-30 in 2nd week....like....it's clear how the song resonated with the GP and her fanbase 

IT REMANS A BAD / DATED SONG  in the same category with PI 

2 songs that impacted negatively their parent albums ....end of with cult classics and other futile names of those songs 

Again, you can think it was a bad song (I liked it, but didn't love it) but it's weird to insist it objectively sucks when oddly enough it is one of Gaga's best reviewed songs. Saying a song is "bad" when 90% of the reviews are positive, even from outlets which usually are down on Gaga, is your opinion...not a fact.

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Genuine Guy 09
5 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

You don't have to like SL, but it received good reviews.... I mean, The Guardian, NYT (which usually hates her), Pitchfork, etc. all gave it a good review.

media and radio loved SL but unfortunately it never translated to GP success, it is her 2nd worst performing lead. Perfect Illusion even got better callouts from the public (listener feedback)

In terms of reviews for album though - correct. If she scores an amazing metcritic score that will help sales. Plus publications like to review her, especially after her awards. So the acclaim can help an album more rather than one single song.

Stare at the Chartster in the mirror they talk to me too. #StreamFunTonight
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ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY
11 minutes ago, BawBaw said:

Moved BIG pure sales .....something that's impossible now as the pure sales died + physicals unavailable due to the pandemic

Halsey pulled great pure sales for Manic and she’s nowhere near the level of Gaga. I don’t think people are factoring in the return to pop and the ASIB GP boost. 

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Genuine Guy 09
8 minutes ago, ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY said:

Halsey pulled great pure sales for Manic and she’s nowhere near the level of Gaga. I don’t think people are factoring in the return to pop and the ASIB GP boost. 

you're making me excited for album :gayhat:

Stare at the Chartster in the mirror they talk to me too. #StreamFunTonight
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BawBaw
3 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

Again, you can think it was a bad song (I liked it, but didn't love it) but it's weird to insist it objectively sucks when oddly enough it is one of Gaga's best reviewed songs. Saying a song is "bad" when 90% of the reviews are positive, even from outlets which usually are down on Gaga, is your opinion...not a fact.

 

Most of those articles are praising  song itself mostly but her going back to ''dance music '' 

I speak on numbers not on some articles who certainly were hyped by her coming back after being a critics darling.

 

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LilyLark
3 minutes ago, Genuine Guy 09 said:

media and radio loved SL but unfortunately it never translated to GP success, it is her 2nd worst performing lead. Perfect Illusion even got better callouts from the public (listener feedback)

In terms of reviews for album though - correct. If she scores an amazing metcritic score that will help sales. Plus publications like to review her, especially after her awards. So the acclaim can help an album more rather than one single song.

She seems polarizing to critics. IMO it always come across like all of the critics acknowledge she can serve serious vocals, but some just don't like her music. I know all of her albums are in the green, but there's always been a handful of critics that basically give her a zero and drag down her score rather than a consensus. 

I was honestly shocked at the reception for SL....Critics seem way more pop friendly, and "Gaga" friendly, these days so I wouldn't be surprised if Chromatica scores a high 70s/80s on Metacritic.

*I wonder if she should have released a ballad for her first single. Fans were screaming for dance bops, but most probably would have been fine with a ballad if she served visuals and hinted dance bops were coming...and it would have been more GP friendly.

**I'm also curious what her pre-COVID 19 single release schedule was going to be....I could easily have seen a  ballad after SL and then Rain on Me. However, with all the leaks and press I wonder if ROM will be the next single...or if there won't be any singles before the album comes out.

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BawBaw
17 minutes ago, ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY said:

Halsey pulled great pure sales for Manic and she’s nowhere near the level of Gaga. I don’t think people are factoring in the return to pop and the ASIB GP boost. 

Had tour bundles and merchandise bundles 

Tour bundles in Gaga's case are really small cause only Gillete Stadium tickets are bundled ....and merchandise might experience problems with the delivery because of COVID 

 

+ no COVID 

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