France is in recession, India's GDP to Decline To 4.8%, Says UN Report

[Guest]

As France recorded its worst quarterly performance since World War II, Germany , too, expects a slowdown while the UN predicts lower growth projections for India

New Delhi: The spread of Covid 19 virus has weighed heavily on economies globally with France plunging into its worst recession with the economy contracting around six per cent in the first quarter of FY21. The central bank in France estimated that the contraction is its worst quarterly performance since World War II.

It has estimated that for every two weeks during the lockdown the economy will see a decline by 1.5 per cent. A lockdown in France was effective from March 17 and has been extended by two weeks to April 15 and can be further extended if the situation remains grim. The central bank said construction, transport, restaurants, and lodging were the most affected sectors.

Germany is also expected to brace up for a recession with economic activity taking a hit due to Covid 19 lockdown. According to leading research institutes in Germany, the gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to dip by 4.2 per cent in 2020 because of the Covid 19 lockdown.

Meanwhile, back home India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, according to an UN report.

The report named UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' mentioned that the outbreak is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.

The report estimated India's GDP growth for the fiscal year 2019-2020 at 5 per cent and expects it to decline to 4.8 per cent for the current fiscal 2020-21.

s: https://news.abplive.com/news/world/france-plunges-into-recession-as-economy-shrinks-6-1193885

[Blond 5,715]

@Economy  thoughts?

[FfFfFfFF 58,128]

I still find surreal everything that is happening. 

[GaGaAst 13,124]

With the number of cases rising alarmingly it will continue to worsen. Any update on when a cure is to available?

[ANTI WP 19,828]

4.8% growth rate is not that bad 

we can easily back at usual 6-7% during the Q4

[Miaou 39,013]

I- 

This was expected but the reality is hard to accept 

[Economy 52,861]

1 hour ago, Blond said:

@Economy  thoughts?

That this is totally expected? There's no other possible outcome but recession now pretty much anywhere

[PartySick 172,545]

34 minutes ago, Economy said:

That this is totally expected? There's no other possible outcome but recession now pretty much anywhere

How do you think things will go once all the lockdowns are lifted, businesses open up, and people start spending money again?

I'm just curious about how long the effects of a recession last after the cause is dealt with.

[Bt1 5,213]

People are so affraid that they are asking for this. Giving that the mortality rate for people under 50 is comparable with the flu, it is clear that these measures are far from the best. 

[Economy 52,861]

4 minutes ago, PartySick said:

How do you think things will go once all the lockdowns are lifted, businesses open up, and people start spending money again?

I'm just curious about how long the effects of a recession last after the cause is dealt with.

It's depends. I think there's 2 major factors that would determine that:

 

#1 how much financial help did a country provide people out of work? If people's finances are not destroyed they can go back to spending normally... If ppl go broke because of this they are gonna have to keep spending down for a time

 

#2 do the majority of businesses survive? A business can't bring back its employees and provided services if it's gone and many small businesses can't survive long periods at all of little or no business so this is a key factor

 

Once they are gone they are gone. And waiting for new start ups or other surviving businesses to grow enough to make up for lost ones that's a fair bit of time

 

My Province Ontario is big on manufacturing exports to the US but we never recovered fully from 2008 financial crisis because the recession hit at the same time US Dollar tanked and Canada's currency rose. So our exporters were hit with a double whammy of lower demand but also unfavorable currency exchange rates so many were pushed to the brink of bankruptcy

 

Despite US economy improving our manufactured exports never went back to what they were because there was fewer companies now still alive and therefore less capacity to take advantage of higher demand

 

A simmilar thing could happen when economy re-opens if too many businesses go