Germany expects 12k - 1 million corona deaths in leaked government paper

[Supersonic 49,376]

A 17 page strategical paper from the Ministry of Health in Germany has leaked. The paper describes 3 different scenarios on how the virus could spread to the population in regards to the measures the German government could impose on its citizens and how many deaths would be probable under each scenario.

The worst case scenario assumes that 70% of the population could be infected until the end of may with no government intervention, with 350,000 people needing intensive care. Only 15% of all patients that need instensive care would actually be able to get it. The uncontrolled spread would leave Germany with about 1,200,000 deaths from Corona overall.

Another scenario described as "Dehnung" (German for "Stretching") assumes that through harsher regulations on social interaction and physical contact that only 20% of the population would get infected overall. In this scenario, 16% of all patients that would need intensive care would have to be rejected by triage (instead of 85%). This scenario assumes that overall 220,000 deaths would happen in Germany. However, harsh social distancing regulations would have to be in place for 7 months in this scenario.

In the third scenario called "Hammer and Dance" (named after a much cited article about containment strategies), which sees Germany rapidly increasing general testing for covid-19 and heavily isolating infected people, the overall death toll could be reduced to 12,000 cases and overall infections would barely cross 1 million. In this scenario, public life could resume as early as April 20 already.

The paper also talks about changing the German government's approach in communicating the severity of the pandemic, as young Germans overwhelmingly have not realized the direness of the situation. The German government now plans on specifically describing worst case infections and the lethal progress of the disease. The paper reads "Many gravely ill people will be brought to the hospital, get rejected and die in excrutating pain at home, while their loved ones have to helplessly watch. To contain the level of endemic infections, people need to be shocked."

Also, the paper also talks about the dangers of containing public life and the economy for a long time. The worst case scenario would see the German GDP decrease by 36% and society falling into complete anarchy. The "Hammer and Dance" scenario would mean that Germany's GDP would only take a 4% hit.

https://taz.de/Strategiepapier-des-Innenministeriums/!5675014/

[PartySick 172,533]

That is a large margin

And a scary number

[Guest]

Imagine returning to normal on 20th April 

a dream, literally a dream 

[migamiga 12,102]

 i havent really kept up with germany but last i heard they were one of the best at testing per capita and have the lowest death rate. although, the scenarios outlined in this document don't seem farfetched for ANY country at this point. i hope that their testing methods can help them identify and contain so it doesn't reach a high number of deaths 

[ItWasntLaauv 6,392]

12k-1m, that’s such a huge gap, if I made an estimate like that in a math class, my teacher would probably fail me for not being more precise. It’s like saying barely anyone will die or everyone will die, like, not very helpful info lol. 

[Economy 52,847]

11 minutes ago, PartySick said:

That is a large margin

And a scary number

That's what I was thinking. 12K is literally 1.2% or 1M

 

Anyway didn't they cases already surpassed that at like 27,000 last week? Or maybe I'm thinking of Spain or France I dunno

 

Edit: oh deaths dunno how I missed that

 

[GreekGod 1,085]

Looks like government has taken Hammer and Dance approach and all public institutions & universities are suggesting 20 April date.
Last few days the infection growth have stalled somewhat but let’s see if it’s gonna be continious.

 

[Lona Delery 7,227]

thats quite a wide margin of error innit

[Maleficent 6]

22 minutes ago, Supersonic said:

The paper also talks about changing the German government's approach in communicating the severity of the pandemic, as young Germans overwhelmingly have not realized the direness of the situation. The German government now plans on specifically describing worst case infections and the lethal progress of the disease.

Which is exactly why this document "leaked" 

[StarstruckIllusion 53,564]

A world recession of epic proportions...

Just as soon as I’m ready to get started in adulthood 

Yay me 

[Monster7 5,697]

Well it makes sense, if you do nothing everyone will have been infected by the end of the year. If you lock every single person in the country (except basic services and hospitals workers) for a month the disease stops spreading

[Prada 1,200]

without control it could