2020 New Hampshire Democratic Primary

[President Biden 5,898]

2 minutes ago, Brainiac said:

Ummm excuse me? I'm 27 years old. No, this is not my first election cycle. I guarantee I'm more informed on what's going on than you. Pete has NO MINORITY support. He's not winning Nevada or South Carolina. Last poll from Nevada had him in single digits. Same goes for Amy.

Recent polls put him at an 8% minority support average, varying across different polls.

 

That’s higher than Amy Klobuchar, pre suspension Andrew Yang, and even some Warren results. 

 

The fact abt minority support in polling is it relies on name recognition. Even Cory Booker & Kamala Harris couldn’t do that well with minority voters bc the Biden firewall and name recognition. Minority voters (yes this is a generalization, but a factual one) tend to have less exposure to media & fall in lower income brackets. As a result, they tend to be less swayed by small political changes and less open to new candidates. Remember in 2008, polling & early states helped Hillary Clinton perform very well. It was not until much later in the race that minority voters shifted to Obama, helping him lock up the nomination. 

 

so in short

 

It’s too early to predict minority support, especially w regards to Buttigieg, who is gaining in minority support (likely due to early state success & some endorsements) and has the potential to gain more (if he cuts into Biden’s base like Bloomberg has been doing or if someone like Obama/Harris/Oprah/Booker/John Lewis/etc etc etc endorses him).

 

In the end, only one that’s really struggling with black support is Donald Trump

[Othon 34,299]

I want to thank the Bernie supporters in here once again for the solidarity you've shown over the course of this primary so far. This is a good night. Let's carry this through to Nevada and then all the way to the presidency. 

[Brainiac 11,171]

Just now, Halsey said:

Recent polls put him at an 8% minority support average, varying across different polls.

 

That’s higher than Amy Klobuchar, pre suspension Andrew Yang, and even some Warren results. 

 

The fact abt minority support in polling is it relies on name recognition. Even Cory Booker & Kamala Harris couldn’t do that well with minority voters bc the Biden firewall and name recognition. Minority voters (yes this is a generalization, but a factual one) tend to have less exposure to media & fall in lower income brackets. As a result, they tend to be less swayed by small political changes and less open to new candidates. Remember in 2008, polling & early states helped Hillary Clinton perform very well. It was not until much later in the race that minority voters shifted to Obama, helping him lock up the nomination. 

 

so in short

 

It’s too early to predict minority support, especially w regards to Buttigieg, who is gaining in minority support (likely due to early state success & some endorsements) and has the potential to gain more (if he cuts into Biden’s base like Bloomberg has been doing or if someone like Obama/Harris/Oprah/Booker/John Lewis/etc etc etc endorses him).

 

In the end, only one that’s really struggling with black support is Donald Trump

Thanks for giving me a thoughtful response, unlike some other users who resorted to insults. I really appreciate it.

[Morphine Prince 109,729]

If Pete manages to perform strongly in South Carolina, I'd say it's over for Biden. 

[Chromatica 7,042]

I really don't know where we go from here.  Only time will tell if this primary affects Biden's chances at being competitive in the next two states. Judging from Iowa, it does.  

And we still haven't even gotten to the states where Bloomberg is investing in. 

[Bt1 5,213]

1 minute ago, Morphine Prince said:

I think he will be at the Feb 19 debate

That will be interesting. Probably all the candidates will go after him. 

[Arturo 40,746]

Congratulations Bernie  

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

So both Bernie and Buttigieg will both leave NH with 9 each and Amy with 6.

I'm happy. Let's move to South Carolina.

[Shaney 5,515]

whew, Bernie's win really has people heated. I love to see it.

[MJHolland 12,725]

hm this thread is a mess. 

very close race! love it. but, be ready to UNIFY, gays! 

[President Biden 5,898]

Just now, Morphine Prince said:

If Pete manages to perform strongly in South Carolina, I'd say it's over for Biden. 

That’d be a spectacle. Tho I’d say Pete needs to really pull up in Nevada first. He’s proven to have a stronger ground campaign than other moderates, likely why he’s pulled well so far. Similarly, Sanders clearly has the ground advantage over Warren.

We’ll see if Bloomberg’s blanket campaign can succeed against the ruthless organizational wars of Pete & Bernie. I predict his numbers to fumble like Biden & the race to end up Buttigieg / Sanders, a true testament to the importance of actual physical campaigning.

[Mister G 10,513]

2 minutes ago, Lois Griffin said:

I really don't know where we go from here.  Only time will tell if this primary affects Biden's chances at being competitive in the next two states. Judging from Iowa, it does.  

And we still haven't even gotten to the states where Bloomberg is investing in. 

I’ll say I’m shocked to see Warren struggling the way she is now. She had a lot of momentum early on. Almost like people forgot about her.

[Chromatica 7,042]

I've never donated to a political campaign before today but I think I'm gonna throw Amy $15 just to see what happens.

[Morphine Prince 109,729]

This thread was for the most part focused on facts and analysis and not personal attacks so we're doing better 

[Mister G 10,513]

Just now, Lois Griffin said:

I've never donated to a political campaign before today but I think I'm gonna throw Amy $15 just to see what happens.

You’ll start getting communication to donate in the future and requests to see if you’re interested in volunteering for her campaign whether it be phone banking or canvassing.