2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus

[Othon 34,299]

I'm not speaking for myself here, but I can say with absolute certainty that, given the way this all played out, a massive portion of Sanders' supporters will go to their graves believing that this was rigged if Buttigieg actually comes out on top. Regardless of whether you find that correct or helpful, it's absolutely going to be a reality and it's going to be a disaster for the party if Sanders isn't the nominee.

[HorusRa2 5,005]

4 minutes ago, HorusRa2 said:

 

 

[Bt1 5,213]

2 minutes ago, Bonkers said:

I can explain Biden's under performance.

The majority of people don't follow politics that closely.  They pay attention, a bit, but usually they get drawn to the person that seems to be the most common sense choice.  But in reality, they don't really give a f***.    That's the difference with "enthusiasm" candidates like Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg who have supporters who are waaay more likely to spend time on a process like this.  

It's more than that. It is a caucus problem. And it's a problem with the demographics of the state. Iowa is 90% white. 

Still, he did worse than expected. 

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

Just now, OG Gaga Stan said:

I'm not speaking for myself here, but I can say with absolute certainty that, given the way this all played out, a massive portion of Sanders' supporters will go to their graves believing that this was rigged if Buttigieg actually comes out on top. Regardless of whether you find that correct or helpful, it's absolutely going to be a reality and it's going to be a disaster for the party if Sanders isn't the nominee.

This.

The optics are TERRIBLE. We actually do need Unity, I just get upset when its used as a cudgel against Progressives for existing or calling out corruption/wrong doing and is hypocritical, but this hurts that cause.

There's no way the DNC gets out of this unscathed even if it wasn't rigged with how the whole thing was handled with their track record against him... I don't expect Bernie himself to ever say "it was rigged" (unless we find out it was) but... there's no way this will stop now. The optics are just too messy - Bernie predicted to win massively, ends up in second place, on the eve of him being predicted to be the new frontrunner for the Democratic party with numerous think pieces and journalistic articles coming out about DNC officials scrambling to try to stop him... Plus the potential conflict of interest with Pete... it could very well be all coincidental, and the DNC got a saving grace in an honest victory... but it doesn't matter anymore

Everyone ****ing loses  I guess Joe might have gotten a saving grace if he doesnt get obliterated in the media, but it seems all data was accurate in that Joe got 4th place and he might be able to spin this as "look the results were inconclusive" (even if they were conclusive) now with the media circus...but his campaign IMO should be in the tanks after this, its an embarassment, and certainly part of why Obama has been so hopeful of someone overtaking him... I dislike Obama for many things, but he is an astute politician minus his Bernie blindside.

Michael Bloomberg however, with the reports of him doubling his ad spending - if Biden cant come out of this unscathed, Bloomberg is about to SNATCH his moderate weave. Also, $500 million on ads potentially... Y'all super tuesday kids better install a bloomberg filter on your adblocker  

[Gov Hooka 8,008]

Sanders clearly won this but it's disgusting how this app malfunction sabotaged it. Ive heard better excuses about the app malfunctioning from annoying tops on grindr that flaked on my d.ick appointments  

[rumours 45,521]

Still only 62%.

I'm not gonna waste my whole afternoon again waiting.

[Bt1 5,213]

Watching CNN. A justice democrat can speak in a positive way about both Pete and Bernie. What a beautiful surprise. 

[Chromatica 7,042]

Do we have a time frame for when the full results are going to come or?

[SKANK 14,288]

An openly gay man just came in first or second place in the Iowa caucus, beating a former Vice President. This is a historic victory. It's a victory for the ghosts of Baron Friedrich von Steuben, Bayard Rustin, and every other gay man who was expected to live in the shadows if he wanted to contribute to our democracy. It's a victory for every queer kid in America. Whether you support Pete or not, this is huge.

As the results trickle in, it seems like a Jewish Democratic Socialist and an openly gay man are neck and neck in Iowa. That is worth celebrating. As we move on to the next primary, whomever you are supporting, can we not stoop to Trump's level with the childish attacks? PeteTheCheat trending? Get a grip people. We are better then that.

[Othon 34,299]

This will be my one major takeaway until we know more.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

Just now, Lois Griffin said:

Do we have a time frame for when the full results are going to come or?

They have refused to give a time line

This could remain in the news for an entire day or more, or hell even up to the debate  

If they do that... the calls of a rigged primary will definitely grow stronger. Realistically, they have until tomorrow afternoon just in my personal guess before any semblance of faith left in this process is eroded from the Sanders camp.

[FATCAT 60,888]

We'll get the other 38% tomorrow

See yall then

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

Takeaways from existing Data:

It seems that many Klobuchar/Biden/Warren people moved to Pete on second alignment if their candidate didn't make alignment, or they allied to give it to Pete  He overperformed in rural areas, but the second alignment effect is primarly fueling his success.

Call me biased for this but I said it last night b4 results were out... Caucuses are somewhat undemocratic - In a general election you get one vote and that's it. I don't see how delegate counts shouldn't skew towards First alignment totals because that is the raw # of people who want you to be the candidate. This seems to favor candidates who are moderates (e.g. less radical) - less people want you, but more people would settle for you basically...

In the general election however, that trend results in low voter turn out and apathy amongst independents and marginalized people. So, it is a weird thing to incentivize in my mind  I get the idea that maybe it means you are "more marketable" but thats just not how we know general elections work. If I don't like Hillary, I either reluctantly vote for that person, or I stay home. I don't have another option, so Hillary's moderation is a detriment to turn out, even as it is a boon to non policy oriented folks potentially supporting the candidate.

I think this is a big thing that Dems have been critically unable to make sense of since 2016 unfortunately...

[Harris Walz 2024 1,451]

Yasss, Mayor Pete !!!!

[rojo 560]

I know it's only the start but this is not a good look for the democratic party at all. I hope Bernie transform it like trump did with the Republicans but in a good way of course.