2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus

[Buddy 5,686]

THE DAY IS HERE, SISTREN! 

GEAR FOURTH!

*LIVE RESULTS*

 

 

[Buddy 5,686]

I just took a Xanax and still don't know if I can handle today.

[Eighteen 5,430]

and here was i thinking it was on tuesday. i'm gonna say biden wins it. anyone wanna take any action on that? 

[Buddy 5,686]

2 minutes ago, Eighteen said:

and here was i thinking it was on tuesday. i'm gonna say biden wins it. anyone wanna take any action on that? 

Betting Odds have Bernie at 62.9% and Biden at 20.1%, but I'm expecting the worst so my world isn't crushed. 

[Buddy 5,686]

THE MELTDOWN AND IT'S ONLY 6AM

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

22 minutes ago, Eighteen said:

and here was i thinking it was on tuesday. i'm gonna say biden wins it. anyone wanna take any action on that? 

Bernie's going in leading Biden by 4 points in polling averages, and odds are not in Biden's favor at all

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

Bernie also had an advantage with the loyalty of his supporters and who are saying they'll caucus for him, with 60% of his supporters saying they'll definitely vote for him compared to 48% of Biden's. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/sanders-biden-are-neck-neck-new-nbc-wsj-national-poll-n1127051

Still, around 50% of voters there have indicated they are still undecided. So there's reason to be cautious. 

It really all comes down to turnout and who turns out to caucus. 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

My nerves are on high today. 

Can't focus at work today knowing the trajectory of the primary is being determined TODAY. 

[Azor Ahai 18,861]

I hope the correct Grandpa wins tonight 

[PoshLife 17,019]

The Iowa caucuses are known for surprises, so I'm not putting any money on anything. But here are my predictions based on what I've been seeing over the past few weeks.

Based on the polling, I have to imagine Sanders will be ahead after the "first alignment." But who ultimately gets the most delegates out of Iowa will depend on the choices caucus-goers make in the locations where their favorite candidate doesn't reach the 15% threshold. This will be a messy process since it's their first time doing this.

Where Warren isn't viable, I imagine most (if not all) of her supporters will move to Sanders. However, their recent feud may cause some Warren supporters to decide to go home rather than stay and caucus for Bernie, and that could have consequences wherever the count is close.

Where Klobuchar and Buttigieg aren't viable, I assume most of their supporters will move to Biden. Is it possible Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters could move between those two candidates to reach 15%? Maaaaybe? But I think at the end of the day these are people who want a moderate candidate to win, and if their first choice isn't at 15% then they'll move to Biden.

Yang, Steyer, and Gabbard supporters will go to Sanders (though Steyer has said nice things about Biden at the debates so the former VP could get a few of his). I'm not sure in how many places this will actually make a difference.

So who ultimately wins? I think Sanders will win, and may even expand his lead in the final alignment, with Biden absorbing enough lower-tier candidates' support to eke out a second place finish. But again, Iowa is known for surprising us.

Beyond Iowa

-Whatever happens, Sanders is poised to have a good night and then maintain that momentum going into New Hampshire where he's also expected to do quite well. But if the recent polling overstated his surge, that could turn his narrative around at a crucial moment.

-Biden may falter in Iowa (and NH) but has more favorable demographics to look forward to in Nevada, South Carolina, and then on Super Tuesday - but he could be battling a bad narrative himself if he has a surprisingly poor showing in the first two states. I wouldn't be sounding the alarm unless he's more than 5 points behind the first-place finisher at the end of the night.

-Buttigieg and Warren are really on the edge between viability and non-viability based on their trajectories; it could go either way for them, and the Iowa results will likely determine their chances in the remainder of the primary more than it will for any of the other candidates. If either of them has a surprisingly strong showing, that could give them a much needed boost heading into New Hampshire. But if either of them doesn't get any delegates, it will be extremely embarrassing. 

-Klobuchar's realistic best-case scenario, based on the polling, is a surprise third-place finish in Iowa that she might use to help launch a more serious bid for New Hampshire, but if that doesn't come through then she's pretty much toast by month's end.

[Petie Estie 5,707]

The theme of this year's Iowa caucuses is everyone is undecided and so nervous about beating trump they're trying to predict the future and choose someone who can win --- and that keeps changing. It's anyone's game. Tons of people are going into their caucus undecided. More than ever before. it's really anybody's game. Polls of 1st choices in this caucus might show a front-runner or front-runners but the share of undecided people is so large that it's impossible to make clear predictions on who will actually get the most delegates. Should be an exciting night. 

[Eighteen 5,430]

6 hours ago, Buddy said:

THE MELTDOWN AND IT'S ONLY 6AM

i hope he's wrong.  the left CANNOT lose the general  if they do, it's f*cken curtains for everybody

(i meant i hope he's wrong that a progressive can't win the general, not that i hope he's wrong that bernie's gonna win iowa)

[Morphine Prince 109,683]

Michael Bennet will win it all. 

The truth is a hard pill to swallow, seethe 

[Gov Hooka 8,008]

Bernie has the best ground plan. He will win hopefully. Biden will be a close second.

[Marilyn MonHoe 11,011]

2 hours ago, Buddy said:

THE MELTDOWN AND IT'S ONLY 6AM

 

 

 

[Morphine Prince 109,683]