2020 US Election Polls

[PoshLife 17,019]

2 hours ago, Brainiac said:

Don't call me a Bernie Bro, thanks.

https://electionbettingodds.com/Iowa2020.html

And you were saying?

Election Betting Odds? Lol. Those sites were giving Warren a 50% chance of winning the nomination back in October because she had a polling surge that lasted all of two weeks. They're extremely sensitive to polling swings. What I like about FiveThirtyEight's models is that it doesn't swing wildly from one poll to the next but actually looks at the trends, takes national polling into account in addition to the state-specific polls, and actually drills down to the district level.

22 minutes ago, M Monstre said:

Just out of curiosity, why exactly do you support Biden over Sanders?

Because when it comes to every issue, I don't see how someone could reasonably want to vote for pretty much any other candidate other than Sanders. 

This wasn't addressed to me but I'd like to answer it.

I think what a lot of people who are younger than, say, 25 or so have discounted is that 10 years ago, Obama was the wildly popular, inspirational, frankly anti-establishment (i.e. not letting Hillary take the nomination because it was "her time"), and more left-leaning choice. I was 18 in 2008 and he was the first president I ever voted for. With him in the White House, Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and Harry Reid as majority leader, we got the economy back on sound fiscal footing with the Recovery Act, expanded health insurance access to millions of more Americans with Obamacare, repealed the discriminatory Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy, made it easier for women to sue for being paid less than their male counterparts, joined the Paris Agreement and started the Clean Power Plan and new emissions rules for cars... the list goes on and on.

I completely understand that that all seems base-level to today's liberals, but at the time it was radical. It was big. It was inspirational. Some of it, frankly, was executive overreach. And I was excited that I helped make it happen (both as a voter and in my own career later).

Joe Biden was a part of that. The relationships he had in the Senate mattered when it came time to whip for votes (I actually think he was underutilized in this regard), and his experience in foreign policy was, based on what I've read, influential in the White House. A lot of people, especially in the African American community, think of him as being an extension of Obama's legacy. They know him and they trust him. I do, too.

And the thing is, while Joe Biden is considered a centrist to today's liberals, he's still to the left of every elected Republican in this country. I was a liberal back in 2008; my views haven't actually changed, but what counts as liberal has changed. I'm no longer a liberal because I believe in giving people who are here undocumented a path to citizenship but don't believe in decriminalizing border crossings, because I believe in a public option but not Medicare For All, and because I believe in making college affordable but not making it free for everyone.

That's why I like Joe Biden and why I will probably end up voting for him, though I'm still finalizing my choice. I'm with him on the values, I understand what he will want to accomplish as president, and I also see a path forward for him to do it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I don't dislike Bernie Sanders, even though I think he should have done more to rein his supporters in after the 2016 convention. I just don't agree with him on a lot of things. But I'd rather have Bernie Sanders as president for 100 years than Trump as president for one more.

That said, my real problem is that I've had a lot of interactions with Bernie supporters - anonymous ones online, and personal acquaintances in real life - and they've always been disappointing. I've been called a Nazi (I'm Jewish), I've been called a corporate shill (still waiting on my check from Soros...), I've been likened to a frightened old man who doesn't understand the world of today (I'm not even 30 years old...) - including by people who literally know me personally. I know ItsTommyBitch likes to lecture me about how "the politics of civility is bullsh*t," but it goes way beyond that. It's upsetting, and it's every time. So yes, I will dish it out sometimes, but only because I've had to take it from actual Bernie Bros since like late 2015. It's exhausting. I'd rather have real conversations, but if people are going to "LMAO" me even when I'm just stating my opinion, then I'm not going to be the only adult in the room forever.

[REALITY 80,166]

3 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

This wasn't addressed to me but I'd like to answer it.

I think what a lot of people who are younger than, say, 25 or so have discounted is that 10 years ago, Obama was the wildly popular, inspirational, frankly anti-establishment (i.e. not letting Hillary take the nomination because it was "her time"), and more left-leaning choice. I was 18 in 2008 and he was the first president I ever voted for. With him in the White House, Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and Harry Reid as majority leader, we got the economy back on sound fiscal footing with the Recovery Act, expanded health insurance access to millions of more Americans with Obamacare, repealed the discriminatory Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy, made it easier for women to sue for being paid less than their male counterparts, joined the Paris Agreement and started the Clean Power Plan and new emissions rules for cars... the list goes on and on.

I completely understand that that all seems base-level to today's liberals, but at the time it was radical. It was big. It was inspirational. And I was excited that I helped make it happen (both as a voter and in my own career later).

Joe Biden was a part of that. The relationships he had in the Senate mattered when it came time to whip for votes (I actually think he was underutilized in this regard), and his experience in foreign policy was, based on what I've read, influential in the White House. A lot of people, especially in the African American community, think of him as being an extension of Obama's legacy.

And the thing is, while Joe Biden is considered a centrist to today's liberals, he's still to the left of every Republican in this country. I was a liberal back in 2008; my views haven't actually changed, but what counts as liberal has changed. I'm no longer a liberal because I believe in giving people who are here undocumented a path to citizenship but don't believe in decriminalizing border crossings, because I believe in a public option but not Medicare For All, and because I believe in making college affordable but not making it free for everyone.

That's why I like Joe Biden and why I will probably end up voting for him, though I'm still finalizing my choice. I'm with him on the values, I understand what he will want to accomplish as president, and I also see a path forward for him to do it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I don't dislike Bernie Sanders, even though I think he should have done more to rein his supporters in after the 2016 convention. I just don't agree with him on a lot of things. But I'd rather have Bernie Sanders as president for 100 years than Trump as president for one more. That said, my real problem is that I've had a lot of interactions with Bernie supporters - anonymous ones online, and personal acquaintances in real life - and they've always been disappointing. I've been called a Nazi, I've been called a corporate shill, I've been likened to a frightened old man who doesn't understand the world of today (I'm not even 30 years old...) - including by people who literally know me personally. I know ItsTommyBitch likes to lecture me about how "the politics of civility is bullsh*t," but it goes way beyond that. It's upsetting. So yes, I will dish it out sometimes, but only because I've had to take it from actual Bernie Bros since like late 2015. It's exhausting.

Maybe unlike a lot of ""Bernie bros."" here, I actually don't mind Joe Biden. I wouldn't vote for him in the primaries, but I don't hate him as much as some people here might. 

That said, I think Biden is too inconsistent in his beliefs and policies. I mean, the vote for the Iraq War and the vote to cut social security benefits are just two examples of that. To me, he just seems like another establishment, corporate Democrat who might not get things done that will actively help the American people. Now look, that isn't to say that I think his mind/heart are in the wrong place. I think Biden has good intentions, but I think Bernie's vision for what America should be is where the country needs to head.

As for his relationship with Obama, like you I suppose, I liked what they both accomplished. I don't necessarily think they're as "awful" as some members here may say they are, and listen, while I understand that they may have accomplished a lot, wouldn't you then make that same argument for Sanders? He's looking to make some incredible changes, and while the reality is that there will be some  compromise in some of his policies (because no president can get 100% of the things they want done), if his policies are more "left" than most people are comfortable with, then those "compromises" would still actually be fairly progressive. 

Biden also has this problem by simultaneously trying to piggy-back off of Obama, but at the same time trying to back away from his relationship with him. That's another example of his inconsistency. Everytime something good is mentioned about the Obama administration, he's always like, "Hey, and I was there too!", but everytime something bad is mentioned about the Obama administration, he's like, "Well...Barack and I are different people. You can't expect me and him to agree on everything". As Cory Booker said, "you can't have your cake and eat it too". 

As for Bernie's policies specifically, again, I just don't necessarily understand how people can go against that. I mean, Medicare For All and free public college tuition? Those sound like great ideas! Granted, like I said, if elected there will most likely be some sort of compromise, but still they sound great to me. And it's not just those ideas too. The reason why Bernie is doing so well is because his ideas and philosophies resonate with people. Especially with healthcare, the majority of people actually agree with Bernie Sanders. 

Finally as for his supporters, look, I think like with anyone group of people, you will have people who are at the extremes, but I actually think that a lot of "Bernie bro" people are kind-hearted, sympathetic, and compassionate. They just have a lot of enthusiasm. Perhaps sometimes their enthusiasm is directed in ways it shouldn't, but that's only because Bernie has proven to grow such a grassroots movement of loyal supporters/followers. Also though, you can't deny that with the media constantly shitting on Bernie, you can't expect his supporters not to get mad at that. 

[pachinko 10,755]

Mike Poner and his impact! When will Gaga support a winning candidate?

[RAMROD 117,066]

5 minutes ago, M Monstre said:

Maybe unlike a lot of ""Bernie bros."" here, I actually don't mind Joe Biden. I wouldn't vote for him in the primaries, but I don't hate him as much as some people here might.

You have just been disowned by the GGD hardline BernieBros as soon as they read these lines. It's my way or the highway for them, fam. Cant you see?  

[pachinko 10,755]

What will Elizabeth Warren do next?

#Bernie4ever

[Adakam 2]

Biden, Bernie, Warren, Pete, Tulsi, I dont care who wins the primary as long as every single person with more than 2 brain cells votes AGAINST trump in november.

If you are the kind of person that goes "iF _______WiNs iM noT vOtIng For HiM in NovEmBer" then I have zero respect for you and I sincerely wish you the worst of trump's next term. I hope every single one of his policies hurts your well being and your future. 

 

 

[PoshLife 17,019]

Interestingly, the second of two House Democrats who represent Iowa districts Trump won just endorsed Biden: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/479888-biden-nabs-endorsement-from-democrat-in-iowa-swing-district

I think these vulnerable House Members are endorsing him because they'd rather run with Biden at the top of the ticket than Sanders. Finkenauer and Axne are both going to be in VERY competitive, expensive (by Iowa media market standards) races this year. They will have the word "socialist" thrown at them for months if Sanders is the nominee. Will it be fair? Of course not. But the GOP doesn't fight fair. So they'd both much rather campaign with Biden than with Sanders (Finkenauer has already had events with Biden after endorsing him several weeks ago). It's just a much better fit for their districts come General Election season, and so I think they're both trying to use whatever influence they have to swing the primary towards Biden. I think that's why other Frontliners, like Luria and Allred and more, are doing the same.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Sanders being the nominee will make it harder for us to keep the House and take the Senate.

[derpmonster 22,412]

7 hours ago, Halsey said:

You are so blind & heartless.

The people who want healthcare for all so people don't become bankrupt and homeless due to one medical emergency are blind and heartless?

 Chile y'all are learning projection perfectly from Team Trump.

[REALITY 80,166]

28 minutes ago, RAMROD said:

You have just been disowned by the GGD hardline BernieBros as soon as they read these lines. It's my way or the highway for them, fam. Cant you see?  

True, but I support Bernie because I believe in his message and his policies. Whether people love or hate my opinion on the matter is irrelevant to me. 

[derpmonster 22,412]

20 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

They will have the word "socialist"

That happened to FDR, that happened for the original Medicare, and it was passed and is one of the most popular government programs. If Democrats can learn to market themselves better instead of speaking in platitudes and running on empty platforms, they WILL win. They need to explain why socialism isn't a bad thing, why america already has socialist policies that people like, and it would sure help if moderate deme didn't "but but he's a SOCIALIST" as if that's a bad thing at anything Bernie says.

[President Biden 5,898]

2 hours ago, M Monstre said:

Just out of curiosity, why exactly do you support Biden over Sanders?

Because when it comes to every issue, I don't see how someone could reasonably want to vote for pretty much any other candidate other than Sanders. 

I actually don’t back Joe, but I will defend him from unnecessary, rude comments.

 

I’m with Pete because he best aligns with what I seek in a candidate. I don’t believe im M4A because my parents get phenomenal due to their employers & I don’t want our family to lose it. I also fear for the effects it could have on the medical industry, as I personally would rather be able to shell out extra $ for my preferred doctor than forced to go with the government provided option. I think M4Awhowantit is a much more fair plan that gives American’s the freedom of choice over where their money goes while still ensuring that EVERYONE can get cheap healthcare. I also value his military experience as someone who is studying International Relations in college. (I will say in terms of foreign policy, Biden makes me the most comfortable due to his experience & connections with world leaders. He has stable relationships with Trudeau/Macron/Merkel, likely Boris Johnson, etc.)

[President Biden 5,898]

2 hours ago, PoshLife said:

Election Betting Odds? Lol. Those sites were giving Warren a 50% chance of winning the nomination back in October because she had a polling surge that lasted all of two weeks. They're extremely sensitive to polling swings. What I like about FiveThirtyEight's models is that it doesn't swing wildly from one poll to the next but actually looks at the trends, takes national polling into account in addition to the state-specific polls, and actually drills down to the district level.

This wasn't addressed to me but I'd like to answer it.

I think what a lot of people who are younger than, say, 25 or so have discounted is that 10 years ago, Obama was the wildly popular, inspirational, frankly anti-establishment (i.e. not letting Hillary take the nomination because it was "her time"), and more left-leaning choice. I was 18 in 2008 and he was the first president I ever voted for. With him in the White House, Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and Harry Reid as majority leader, we got the economy back on sound fiscal footing with the Recovery Act, expanded health insurance access to millions of more Americans with Obamacare, repealed the discriminatory Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy, made it easier for women to sue for being paid less than their male counterparts, joined the Paris Agreement and started the Clean Power Plan and new emissions rules for cars... the list goes on and on.

I completely understand that that all seems base-level to today's liberals, but at the time it was radical. It was big. It was inspirational. Some of it, frankly, was executive overreach. And I was excited that I helped make it happen (both as a voter and in my own career later).

Joe Biden was a part of that. The relationships he had in the Senate mattered when it came time to whip for votes (I actually think he was underutilized in this regard), and his experience in foreign policy was, based on what I've read, influential in the White House. A lot of people, especially in the African American community, think of him as being an extension of Obama's legacy. They know him and they trust him. I do, too.

And the thing is, while Joe Biden is considered a centrist to today's liberals, he's still to the left of every elected Republican in this country. I was a liberal back in 2008; my views haven't actually changed, but what counts as liberal has changed. I'm no longer a liberal because I believe in giving people who are here undocumented a path to citizenship but don't believe in decriminalizing border crossings, because I believe in a public option but not Medicare For All, and because I believe in making college affordable but not making it free for everyone.

That's why I like Joe Biden and why I will probably end up voting for him, though I'm still finalizing my choice. I'm with him on the values, I understand what he will want to accomplish as president, and I also see a path forward for him to do it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I don't dislike Bernie Sanders, even though I think he should have done more to rein his supporters in after the 2016 convention. I just don't agree with him on a lot of things. But I'd rather have Bernie Sanders as president for 100 years than Trump as president for one more.

That said, my real problem is that I've had a lot of interactions with Bernie supporters - anonymous ones online, and personal acquaintances in real life - and they've always been disappointing. I've been called a Nazi (I'm Jewish), I've been called a corporate shill (still waiting on my check from Soros...), I've been likened to a frightened old man who doesn't understand the world of today (I'm not even 30 years old...) - including by people who literally know me personally. I know ItsTommyBitch likes to lecture me about how "the politics of civility is bullsh*t," but it goes way beyond that. It's upsetting, and it's every time. So yes, I will dish it out sometimes, but only because I've had to take it from actual Bernie Bros since like late 2015. It's exhausting. I'd rather have real conversations, but if people are going to "LMAO" me even when I'm just stating my opinion, then I'm not going to be the only adult in the room forever.

 This is all FACTS. Love you. I’m with Pete for now, but if Biden wins, I’ll be 100% Ready for Joe.

[Chickens in Malibu 7,873]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-holds-steady-warren-slips-national-poll-iowa/story?id=68518223

Warren's support is plummeting after her attacks on Bernie. She lost 10 points.

[Fish 6,259]

little warrensters are shooketh

[FATCAT 60,888]

Oh wow, looks like he's absorbing Warren's supporters. Makes sense after the debate stunt..