Biden leads new poll by 11 points

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

@Economy To hear an alternate take: 

This is consistent with older polls, so I still believe Joe would lose in the general for several reasons that people refuse to engage with me on in a level headed manner  

Besides that, I would argue that Bernie's "weakness" with groups like Older AA is more like a lack of the default framing of media that Joe Biden receives re: Electability. By that I mean that almost every mainstream media outlet automatically assumes Joe would win and they frame the entire discussion with that lens, which is clear bias but I mean what are you gonna do. It is somewhat based on establishment, centrist bias, but also because of general election polling. However, Bernie beats Trump in most early swing state polling as well, some by a higher margin and some with a smaller margin than Joe (and some only he beats Trump in. Recent poll had him beating Trump by 6 points in FLORIDA  and an earlier poll had him beating Trump in TEXAS  ), but he does not receive this framing at all regardless and is seen as a rogue, risky pick that could backfire for some reason even though he was seen beating Trump by much larger Margins than Hillary would have in 2016 and he also beat her in some of the states she lost in the primary, unsurprisingly. These polls also don't get quoted alot, even though they are from A and B rank pollsters  

In comparison, pundits have supposed that Buttigieg could win or Warren despite both losing in many many more general matchups than Bernie and Joe, so clearly it is somewhat intentional or narrow-sighted at the most charitable interpretation...

 A "weakness" would imply some lack of messaging accuracy or focus that the targeted demographic isn't clicking with, which isn't accurate in this case (like it is for someone like Pete Buttigieg, who has virtually no black support or millennial support at all, despite targeting policies towards those groups)

Some important statistics: Bernie is the most well liked candidate by black people, and has the highest favorabilities nationally... also, as of this week 56% of AAs  say they would vote for Bernie in the general election, as opposed to 54% for Joe (so a statistical tie). His base to this day is only 49% white, the only candidate with a base that is not primarily white people, as well as being multi-racial and working class (and it includes more women contributors, organizers, and staffers than any other campaign so it's actually very demeaning and sexist to keep calling his supporters "Bernie Bros" like way to erase their identities  

Bernie has also been the 2nd choice of most Biden supporters, including older African Americans since like, August? Bernie is also seen nationally as the #1 candidate on issues of Foreign Policy, the Economy, Health Care, Climate Change and more - The Economy and Health Care being big top 2 priorities in most polls.  Black voters are, like most voters at this point, also open to voting for someone other than their current choice, So, with this in mind, it's clear that breaking Biden's "electability" agrument would most likely be the most effective in "convincing" voters to switch to Bernie, which could certainly happen if he wins Iowa/NH and even NV, though he will likely lose SC still because Joe Biden is well ahead there. This would flip the script of the entire race tbh, or it should, if media doesn't freak out and call it a 3x fluke  which would be insane...

All of the evidence suggest Biden's "firewall of support" is his electability. Put a crack in it, and it becomes a seriously more contested race, and one where I would put my money on Sanders because of the sheer enthusiasm and energy and funding of his campaign, unless they try to screw him over with superdelegates again or something, the likes of which shouldn't exist at all still. 

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

44 minutes ago, StarstruckIllusion said:

Not by being boring and mediocre. He won’t excite people to get out to vote like Trump does (@every centrist). **** “2015 normalcy”, Obama 2.0 is gonna lead to Trump 2.0.

Trump is on the edge tho,  he pisses of enough of his opposition to get them to vote against him now..

his campaign stradegy can be anything like what he got elected on … I mean,  USA isn't really better overall...

Farm and ag. are hurt.... gov. services are less... and big business is booming … private sector and small business aren't really in a better place, just treading water....

and his foreign policy is pretty shady … might even get him impeached ...

Biden's 'don't' make any big changes right now strategy is right for the moderate vote and will help the country recover from such a radical leadership period...

[Guest]

Americans sure do have the talent and art of picking the biggest creeps as their commander in chief

[Economy 52,935]

22 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said:

Trump is on the edge tho,  he pisses of enough of his opposition to get them to vote against him now..

his campaign stradegy can be anything like what he got elected on … I mean,  USA isn't really better overall...

Farm and ag. are hurt.... gov. services are less... and big business is booming … private sector and small business aren't really in a better place, just treading water....

and his foreign policy is pretty shady … might even get him impeached ...

Biden's 'don't' make any big changes right now strategy is right for the moderate vote and will help the country recover from such a radical leadership period...

I'm a bit torn. In terms of right vs left I'm in between Bernie and Biden but closer to Biden... That's if u can call it that... My philosophy on politics and economy are more fluid and common sense based than necessarily favouring a specific ideology on the right to left spectrum. There isn't really any candidate that thinks what I think per say

 

But anyway even tho I might identify slightly closer to Biden than Bernie, I don't think Biden would be agressive enough to undo Trump's status quo significantly enough. Since Presidents never manage to enforce the agenda fully, it's also about direction not just vision cuz in reality u end up only like halfway towards what the President's ideals are 

 

Fortunately since I can't vote in America I'm limited to opinions and giving my two cents. I don't actually have to make any decisions here

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

3 minutes ago, Economy said:

I'm a bit torn. In terms of right vs left I'm in between Bernie and Biden but closer to Biden... That's if u can call it that... My philosophy on politics and economy are more fluid and common sense based than necessarily favouring a specific ideology on the right to left spectrum. There isn't really any candidate that thinks what I think per say

 

But anyway even tho I might identify slight closer to Biden than Bernie, I don't think Biden would be agressive enough to undo Trump's status quo significantly enough. Since Presidents never manage to enforce the agenda fully, it's also about direction not just vision cuz in reality u end up only like halfway towards what the President's ideals are 

 

Fortunately since I can't vote in America I'm limited to opinions and giving my two cents. I don't actually have to make any decisions here

Hillary gave Obama a big fight durning his initial campain… in fact, she probably would have been the dem. candidate instead of him … 

so all this wrangling now is normal ..  what's different is the extreme left and how they are pulling moderates with them...  Biden is viewed as a conservative?   LOL ….

[Economy 52,935]

29 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

@Economy To hear an alternate take: 

This is consistent with older polls, so I still believe Joe would lose in the general for several reasons that people refuse to engage with me on in a level headed manner  

Besides that, I would argue that Bernie's "weakness" with groups like Older AA is more like a lack of the default framing of media that Joe Biden receives re: Electability. By that I mean that almost every mainstream media outlet automatically assumes Joe would win and they frame the entire discussion with that lens, which is clear bias but I mean what are you gonna do. It is somewhat based on establishment, centrist bias, but also because of general election polling. However, Bernie beats Trump in most early swing state polling as well, some by a higher margin and some with a smaller margin than Joe (and some only he beats Trump in. Recent poll had him beating Trump by 6 points in FLORIDA  and an earlier poll had him beating Trump in TEXAS  ), but he does not receive this framing at all regardless and is seen as a rogue, risky pick that could backfire for some reason even though he was seen beating Trump by much larger Margins than Hillary would have in 2016 and he also beat her in some of the states she lost in the primary, unsurprisingly. These polls also don't get quoted alot, even though they are from A and B rank pollsters  

In comparison, pundits have supposed that Buttigieg could win or Warren despite both losing in many many more general matchups than Bernie and Joe, so clearly it is somewhat intentional or narrow-sighted at the most charitable interpretation...

 A "weakness" would imply some lack of messaging accuracy or focus that the targeted demographic isn't clicking with, which isn't accurate in this case (like it is for someone like Pete Buttigieg, who has virtually no black support or millennial support at all, despite targeting policies towards those groups)

Some important statistics: Bernie is the most well liked candidate by black people, and has the highest favorabilities nationally... also, as of this week 56% of AAs  say they would vote for Bernie in the general election, as opposed to 54% for Joe (so a statistical tie). His base to this day is only 49% white, the only candidate with a base that is not primarily white people, as well as being multi-racial and working class (and it includes more women contributors, organizers, and staffers than any other campaign so it's actually very demeaning and sexist to keep calling his supporters "Bernie Bros" like way to erase their identities  

Bernie has also been the 2nd choice of most Biden supporters, including older African Americans since like, August? Bernie is also seen nationally as the #1 candidate on issues of Foreign Policy, the Economy, Health Care, Climate Change and more - The Economy and Health Care being big top 2 priorities in most polls.  Black voters are, like most voters at this point, also open to voting for someone other than their current choice, So, with this in mind, it's clear that breaking Biden's "electability" agrument would most likely be the most effective in "convincing" voters to switch to Bernie, which could certainly happen if he wins Iowa/NH and even NV, though he will likely lose SC still because Joe Biden is well ahead there. This would flip the script of the entire race tbh, or it should, if media doesn't freak out and call it a 3x fluke  which would be insane...

All of the evidence suggest Biden's "firewall of support" is his electability. Put a crack in it, and it becomes a seriously more contested race, and one where I would put my money on Sanders because of the sheer enthusiasm and energy and funding of his campaign, unless they try to screw him over with superdelegates again or something, the likes of which shouldn't exist at all still. 

I totally agree with ur argument that if the media is indeed exxagerating his electability while downplaying Sanders and you put a "crack" on it, it's not an insignificant thing to consider

 

Me right now I have no idea who will win tho. The race right now is very tight to say the least

 

Bernie is better at energizing voters and improving voter turn out... But Biden is probably still better at attracting centrists or voters that don't go too deep into politics or centrists that don't want either extreme may still support him simply cuz he's centrist

 

Both factors are at play. 

 

I don't think either can be written off

 

Warren and Buttigieg are pretty much done I think. But Bernie vs Biden I think is very unclear still it could be either or

 

 

[Economy 52,935]

6 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said:

Hillary gave Obama a big fight durning his initial campain… in fact, she probably would have been the dem. candidate instead of him … 

so all this wrangling now is normal ..  what's different is the extreme left and how they are pulling moderates with them...  Biden is viewed as a conservative?   LOL ….

Biden I think is conservative by democrat standards perhaps (especially in recent years) but to say he's conservative I think is a big stretch. He's definitely still a centrist. But GGD hates centrists almost as much now as right winger so 

 

Just because someone is a lot more right winged than what u want doesn't make them right winged on the grand scheme of things of your nation. Republicans are still more right than him

 

At least this isn't like Canada. U have no idea how laughable this last election was

 

The Centre Wing Liberals (Trudeau) and the Centre-Right Conservatives had almost the exact same platform with almost no difference what's so ever. It was only trivial details that were different

 

It was so stupid for them to argue about spending and taxes etc that if u look into the numbers and written platform were like 1% different

[Fish 6,259]

2 hours ago, PoshLife said:

Once again, the Bernie Bros want to relitigate 2016. What happened, happened. But now we're looking at a political landscape where Joe Biden consistently polls higher against President Trump than any of the other Dem candidates, including Sanders. Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html 

I know what it's like to see a poll that doesn't have your candidate doing well, but if the best the far left can do when they face a polling setback is to argue about things that happened four years ago then I'm unimpressed.

do you know what far left means? 

 

[Economy 52,935]

9 minutes ago, Fish said:

do you know what far left means? 

 

That can be a bit arbitrary depending what u compare it too but I'll say that Berrnie is proposing some stuff even Scandinavian countries don't have and they are seen as the most socialist like developed nations there are

 

- Up to 8% wealth tax

- 35% Corporate tax rate (with fewer loop holes too)

- the paying of social programs would be payed for almost exclusively by raising taxes on the rich while most European nations have higher taxes on the general population too not just the rich

 

So I think Bernie is indeed quite far left. His redistribution ideals are more agressive than even Europe

 

[Fish 6,259]

Just now, Economy said:

That can be a bit arbitrary depending what u compare it too but I'll say thatB ernie is proposing some stuff even Scandinavian countries don't have and they are seen as the most socialist like developed nations there are

 

- 8% wealth tax

- 35% Corporate tax rate (with fewer loop holes too)

- the paying of social programs would be payed for almost exclusively by raising taxes on the rich while most European nations have higher taxes on the general population too not just the rich

 

So I think Bernie is indeed quite far left

 

I disagree. He is left, not far left. I think it's used to scare people. We should call some die-hard, status quo defenders, centrists "Far Centre"

[Economy 52,935]

35 minutes ago, Fish said:

I disagree. He is left, not far left. I think it's used to scare people. We should call some die-hard, status quo defenders, centrists "Far Centre"

Then I guess we have to agree to disagree. I don't know what u consider far left

 

But when u propose redistribution more agressive than just about any other nation (even Scandinavian countries) if that's not far left I dunno what would be

 

Is only flat out communism far left now? If that's ur definition of far left then sure I agree Sanders isn't far left cuz hes not communist

 

But he's far left to me in terms of any Standard policies that exist pretty much anywhere

 

That's why to me it's arbitrary. U can call him far left if your comparing him to policies that actually exist and are used by any reasonable amount of nations. U can't call him far left if ur comparing him to the furthest countries can go (like Venezuela that intervenes so much they even set price controls on goods) or the old Soviet Union

 

Ppl can be right and wrong at the same time. That's why I think it's arbitrary

 

[PoshLife 17,019]

For folks who aren't triggered by facts, FiveThirtyEight does a terrific job of putting the post-debate polls in perspective. Basically, it shouldn't surprise that this poll found Biden with a healthy lead, nor should it surprise that an Ipsos poll earlier this week showed Sanders leading (when no other pollster has found that):

"And it just so happens that all the pollsters who have released polls since the debate have fairly strong house effects. Emerson College has often shown strong results for Sanders, for instance. And SurveyUSA — both in its California polls and its national polls — has consistently had some of the best numbers for Biden. This is good news for Biden in one sense since SurveyUSA is one of our highest-rated pollsters. But it also means that it isn’t necessarily new news when a SurveyUSA poll comes out showing Biden doing well; such a result will be in line with our model’s expectations. Conversely, Ipsos has consistently shown some of the worst results for Biden, so it doesn’t necessarily move the needle in our model when another Ipsos poll comes out showing Biden doing mediocrely."

Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-first-post-debate-polls-are-in-and-theyre-pretty-weird/

[PoshLife 17,019]

13 minutes ago, Fish said:

I disagree. He is left, not far left. I think it's used to scare people. We should call some die-hard, status quo defenders, centrists "Far Centre"

This is what I've been saying on here for weeks: some of you are so far to the left that your idea of what is left, right, and center has become completely warped. You're so far out of the mainstream you can't even see what mainstream is anymore. And it's why you're all so pikachu-surprised-face when the majority of Americans, even in the Democratic Party, vote for a different candidate.

Yes, Sanders is far-left by American standards. So is Warren. The tremendous amount of wealth distribution they have called for is absolutely outside of what has been the political norm in this country for at least the past 50 years. They would agree with me - that's why they call it "big structural change," after all!

I'm not calling him a communist or a socialist because I know that's not what he identifies as. Some of you, perhaps, would identify as that. But I know the candidates currently running do not - but that doesn't mean they aren't on the far, far left of American politics. I don't think it's up for debate anymore.

[Fish 6,259]

2 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

This is what I've been saying on here for weeks: some of you are so far to the left that your idea of what is left, right, and center has become completely warped. You're so far out of the mainstream you can't even see what mainstream is anymore. And it's why you're all so pikachu-surprised-face when the majority of Americans, even in the Democratic Party, vote for a different candidate.

Yes, Sanders is far-left by American standards. So is Warren. The tremendous amount of wealth distribution they have called for is absolutely outside of what has been the political norm in this country for at least the past 50 years. They would agree with me - that's why they call it "big structural change," after all!

I'm not calling him a communist or a socialist because I know that's not what he identifies as. Some of you, perhaps, would identify as that. But I know the candidates currently running do not - but that doesn't mean they aren't on the far, far left of American politics. I don't think it's up for debate anymore.

the thing is the american standard is NOT the standard. political ideologies and political spectrum are objective concepts.  I can return the argument on you. You may think personally that Sanders is far left because he is posturing himself as "breaking" with a system, and because you find his policies "extreme", but objectively, that does not make him far left. Far left is literally communism.

 

[Harris Walz 2024 1,451]

The only real threat to Biden in the primaries is that he chokes or has a huge gaffe in the primaries and so far he has not. I'd vote for him, I have before twice as VP.